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Xi snub belies growing China-Pakistan ties
Shortly after Barack
Obama’s trip to India in January for the annual Republic Day ceremony, Pakistani officials invited Mr Xi to the March 23 event in Islamabad, held to commemorate the 1940 resolution that led to Pakistan’s creation in 1947.
Officials in Pakistan, a country locked in a military campaign against Taliban militants, insist Mr Xi’s visit has been delayed purely for reasons of security.
But western diplomats in Islamabad say Pakistan’s loss of face is an example of the country’s failure to understand the way Chinese leaders think.
“China prefers to work quietly behind the scenes,” says one. “I don’t believe the Chinese were willing to rush to Islamabad just because President Obama went to Delhi . . . That’s not the Chinese way of doing things.”
Chinese officials in Islamabad refuse to be drawn into speculation over Mr Xi’s plans for a future visit. “Pakistan has its own considerations and we have our own,” one says.
Ahead of Monday’s parade, a
report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) has highlighted the military ties between the countries. Pakistan’s armed forces are dependent on China, with just over half of Pakistan’s weapons imports from 2010 to 2014 coming from the country, against 30 per cent from the US. Pakistan was easily China’s top customer, accounting for 41 per cent of the country’s military exports.
“Pakistan is China’s closest partner and the relationship is built upon solid trust, in contrast to tensions surrounding Beijing’s relations with other states,” says Ikram Sehgal, a commentator on military and security affairs.
Siemon Wezeman, a senior researcher at Sipri, believes it is “a relationship that is deepening”. He says military ties have grown in part because Pakistan’s economic constraints make it harder to shop around in the global arms market. Moreover, he says the “US deepening its relationship with India” may lead to lower Pakistani access to US weapons.
David Sedney, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, a former deputy US assistant secretary of defence, says the US is now less popular in Pakistan than India — “and is sometimes seen as more of a threat”. Although he also points to new and growing strains in the China-Pakistan relationship which he says could have “unpredictable consequences”.
Pakistani officials say Chinese companies will invest more than $45bn in the country in the coming years in energy projects, dams and transport infrastructure.
Documents shown to the Financial Times by a senior official at the ministry of planning suggest roughly $34bn will be invested in new energy projects. More than $11bn will fund new infrastructure including an ambitious highway and a railway linking Pakistan’s southern coastal cities of Karachi and Gwadar — where China funded a deep sea port — to Kashgar in China’s Xinjiang province.
In the past two months a team of Chinese engineers has been surveying a potential route for the road and rail project, which, if it goes ahead, would take up to 25 years to complete.
“This investment will mark a sea change for our country. It’s the first time ever that any of our friends will make such an investment in Pakistan,” says the official. The highway, according to Mr Sehgal, is driven by China’s interest in establishing a shorter route to the Middle East.
Chinese officials have privately complained to Pakistan about Islamist militants in the country seeking to build alliances with ethnic Uighur Muslim separatists in Xinjiang. However, senior Pakistani officials say the military has gone out of its way to target Chinese Muslim separatists.
“There has not been even a single incident where the army knew of the presence of Chinese separatists somewhere and action was not taken,” says one foreign ministry official. “The relationship is too precious to be squandered.”
Pakistani officials say that despite Mr Xi’s absence from the parade, important symbols of China’s foothold will be on display. China has helped build the JF-17 fighters that are positioned to become the country’s main second-line fighter, while discussions are continuing on Beijing’s future sale of a batch of FC-31 stealth fighters.
“The Pakistani military prefers American F-16s and American tanks because they are of higher quality than what China offers,” says Mr Sedney. “But the US has cut off supplies before and could do so again, while the Chinese will never stop the flow.”
Other areas of collaboration have included China’s supply of four new frigates and talks continue on the sale of six submarines. Taken together, these items form the bulk of Pakistan’s military arsenal.
Western defence officials who will attend the parade are keen to see Pakistan’s new Burraq drone, its first to boast an offensive missile capability. Pakistan’s requests for the US to supply armed drones to be used against the Taliban have always been turned down.
One senior western defence official points out that photographs of Burraq’s first trial flight show that Pakistan’s new aircraft bears a close resemblance to Chinese drones.
“I believe the Chinese helped Pakistan manufacture these drones, which fits into the pattern of this relationship,” he says. “The Chinese president will not come to the parade but there will be plenty of China to see.”
Additional reporting by Jamil Anderlini in Beijing
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Thanks...I do have subscription to FT, but through my University Portal.