I agree with your analysis although they are committing a mistake although they have realized it already. Notice their strong support of Al-Asad (only due to geopolitical reasons as I mentioned before and you emphasize in the post I am quoting) in the first half year of the conflict but now they have even admitted and talked about a Syria without Al-Assad. This is basically a stab in the heart. Anyway Russia are not that important. They have no influence in the Arab world and will not have any since they are located far away and face their own regional problems. The most influential Arab countries will not change their outlook toward the West as long as they benefit the most from them. Russia, India and China are still far behind the West and will continue to be that in centuries to come. Cultural dominance from the West is sealed. Millions of Russians, Chinese and Indians are copying the Western life/science, outlook etc. and not the other way around. I don't see the world being dominated by Russian/Chinese/Indian mentality in the future especially not when those same mentalities are replaced by the Western one by local people themselves.
Russia cannot safe Al-Asad. If the Sunni world or Western world wanted to remove Al-Asad the Turkish army together with the Jordanian could remove him with the help of the Syrian opposition in a mater of weeks. Where would Russian help come from? They would need to go from either the Arabian Peninsula (never will happen), Egypt (never will happen), Turkey (same) or through the Sea which will not happen either. So let them bark. Russia has acted way above it's weight since the collapse of the Soviet Union. In 30 years time the Russian population will DECREASE by 30 million. Russians are emigrating in huge numbers and most of the influential people live abroad. The governmental system has not changed since the Soviet Union and are hopelessly naive. Sure they still clinch to their military like a bigger version of North Korea but that will not save their long-term drought.
Instead of trying to oppose USA/NATO/EUROPE something they will always fail to do they should come to terms with their position and instead compete with USA/NATO in the Arab world which could improve their geopolitical influence in the region and benefit themselves in the end. But they are not doing it for the sake of 1 naval base in Syria.
So in their logic 21 Arab countries ≤ Syria which quite frankly is a drunk man's politics (quite fitting given that it is Russia
) Well, whatever I have nothing against Russians or Russia per se but their involvement in Syria is slightly annoying since they are just delaying the inevitable which is a annoying habit.