World Economy Slowed as India's GDP Slightly Fell in 2012-13 in USD terms

[Chinese-Dragon]

No you are wrong again.You see the problem is you don't have a clue what you are talking about.Its the nominal GDP or current dollar GDP..GDP and nominal GDP are two entirely different things.

It's you who has no idea what you are talking about.

I said GDP, and I linked to a site with nominal GDP numbers. So I obviously meant nominal GDP, for anyone who has an IQ above 82.

These semantic arguments are pathetic, though not unexpected.

And it won't save your shrinking GDP. Oh sorry, I specifically meant nominal GDP, for those who don't have enough brain cells to figure out which kind I meant after multiple links to nominal GDP charts.

 

[chhota bheem]

It's you who has no idea what you are talking about.

I said GDP, and I linked to a site with nominal GDP numbers. So I obviously meant nominal GDP, for anyone who has an IQ above 82.

These semantic arguments are pathetic, though not unexpected.

Sorry @Chinese dragon for the reply in the other thread, i was not in a good mood then.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Sorry @Chinese dragon for the reply in the other thread, i was not in a good mood then.

Neither am I, after all these Indians posting China bashing threads.

So we are even.

 

[RiazHaq]

Here's an Economist piece on India losing business and industry to overseas hubs:

Some service industries do seem to be shifting from India. India’s balance of trade in business and financial services has slipped into modest deficit from a surplus five years ago. The number of big India-related corporate legal cases at Singapore’s arbitration centre has doubled since 2009, to 49 last year. It is setting up a Mumbai office to win more business. Trading of equity-index derivatives has shifted—a fifth of open positions are now in Singapore and DGCX, a Dubai exchange, is launching two rival products this year. A recent deal by Etihad, the airline of Abu Dhabi, to buy a stake in Jet, an Indian carrier, should see more long-haul traffic shift to the Gulf. (Jet’s boss, Naresh Goyal, lives in London.) More rupee trading seems to be taking place offshore.

The biggest worry is that heavy industry is getting itchy feet. Coal India, a state-owned mining monopoly sitting on some of the world’s biggest reserves, plans to spend billions of dollars buying mines abroad—red tape and political squabbles mean it is too difficult to expand production at home.

Some fear manufacturing is drifting offshore. In the five years to March 2012, for every dollar of direct foreign investment in Indian manufacturing, Indian firms invested 65 cents in manufacturing abroad. Some big firms such as Reliance Industries plan to invest heavily in India, but others such as Aditya Birla are wary. Its boss, Kumar Mangalam Birla, has said that he prefers to invest outside India—an echo of his father, who expanded in South-East Asia during India’s bleak years in the 1970s.

The Gulf has seen tentative signs of Indian manufacturers shifting base. Rohit Walia, of Alpen Capital, an investment bank, says that in the past year he has helped finance an $800m fertiliser plant and a $250m sugar plant. Both will be built in the United Arab Emirates, by Indian firms that will then re-export much of the output back home. The Gulf’s cheap power and easy planning regime make this more feasible than setting up a plant in India. “It’s a new trend,” says Mr Walia.

The temptation for India is to invent new rules to keep economic activity from moving abroad. In 2012 the government tried to override its treaty with Mauritius, only to scare investors so much that it had to back down. To try to plug its balance of payments, India is tightening rules on buying gold. The country’s ministry of finance is said to be examining the shift of currency-trading offshore. The government has intervened to insist that shareholder disputes arising from the Etihad-Jet deal be settled under Indian law—not English as originally proposed.

Yet in the long run, coercing Indians and foreigners to do their business in India would be self-defeating. Some may simply go on strike and it is far better that activity takes place abroad than not at all. Any rise in the share of offshore activity is best viewed as a warning system about what is most in need of reform at home.

The biggest warning sign would be if Indians themselves started to leave. Despite some mutterings among the professional classes, that does not seem to be happening. Still, if India does not kick-start its economy and reform, more than derivative trading and Bollywood singalongs will shift abroad.

The Indosphere: Made outside India | The Economist

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

And now we have data showing that Chinese exports and imports are both growing strongly:

China’s exports and imports grew strongly in July, boosting confidence that the economy may be stabilising after a shaky first half of the year.

China trade shows signs of recovery - Financial Times

Too bad for all those Indians.

 

[Khalsa97]

I can comment on any thread, and if you don't like it, I couldn't care less.

According to IMF numbers, India's economy shrunk from 2011 to 2012.

And with the Rupee collapsing, India's GDP is set to shrink further. That's what the thread is about, did you read the thread title?

So you are desperate Lmao you think you are the only educated person on this forum? We obviously know that we don't need some insecure Chinese person who has never had a girlfriend to tell us that I mean honestly, your giving it away by doing three large posts in a row

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

So you are desperate Lmao you think you are the only educated person on this forum? We obviously know that we don't need some insecure Chinese person who has never had a girlfriend to tell us that I mean honestly, your giving it away by doing three large posts in a row

Oh you are upset, that was easy. And here I thought counter flaming would take some effort.

But it won't solve India's shrinking GDP, or collapsing Rupee.

India was already poorer than Africa to begin with, now they are growing more slowly than Africa too, at only 4.5%. I guess Indians never really cared about their growth story, they let it die without a whimper.

 

[Khalsa97]

Oh you are upset, that was easy. And here I thought counter flaming would take some effort.

But it won't solve India's shrinking GDP, or collapsing Rupee.

India was already poorer than Africa to begin with, now they are growing more slowly than Africa too, at only 4.5%. I guess Indians never really cared about their growth story, they let it die without a whimper.

Upset? Keep telling yourself that but hey atleast you admit your desperate. You do know Africa isn't just one big country? Africa on a whole has around 1 billion people same as India. Yet India has a trillion dollar economy, can't say the same about Africa. Ha listen bro, if you want to troll articles 24/7 good for you but don't act like some expert economist haha.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Upset? Keep telling yourself that but hey atleast you admit your desperate. You do know Africa isn't just one big country? Africa on a whole has around 1 billion people same as India. Yet India has a trillion dollar economy, can't say the same about Africa. Ha listen bro, if you want to troll articles 24/7 good for you but don't act like some expert economist haha.

Africa as a whole has less people than India, but a bigger GDP, and less poverty too.

BBC quoted numbers from the UN Human development report to show that India has more poverty than the continent of Africa.

Go and check it to see for yourself.

 

[MACKLEMORE]

India GDP per capital by PPP is $3,829 in 2012, even Vietnam with $3,545 could reach its level this year.

 

[RiazHaq]

Jim Rogers: Why I’m shorting India

Hedge fund manager Jim Rogers, who moved to Singapore in 2007 because he thought the centre of the world is shifting to Asia, says India is set to miss out on the Asian century. The chairman of Rogers Holdings says that if there is one country an individual must visit, it has to be India for its “spectacular sensory feast, beautiful, food, colour and religions”, but it is also the worst country to do business in. Rogers also slammed the Indian government’s recent curbs on gold imports, saying Indian citizens had no choice but to buy the metal because they had very little faith in investing in other sectors of its economy. In an interview, Rogers spoke about the financial crisis and his bets for the future and defended his decision to be extremely negative about India in his just-released book Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets.

Jim Rogers: Why I’m shorting India - Livemint

 

[RiazHaq]

Here's an excerpt of a Reuters' story on India rupee hitting a new record low:

The central bank's capital outflow restrictions came a day before the dollar spiked after U.S. jobless claims data on Thursday suggested an early end to the Fed's asset purchases.

That prospect looms over India at a time when it is suffering from a current account deficit that hit a record high of 4.8 percent of gross domestic product and an economy growing at a decade low of 5 percent.

Foreign investors have already sold a net $11.6 billion of Indian debt and equities since late May, sparking fears of continued weakness.

India's main NSE index .NSEI fell 4 percent at one point on Friday, while benchmark 10-year bond yields surged to their highest since May 2012 as prices headed for their worst week in four-and-a-half years.

UBS strategist Manik Narain said that as emerging central banks tightened policy to defend their currencies, stocks would be affected, something that is already happening in India.

"India is losing control over the currency and you are starting to see the weakness transmitting to stock markets. There could be a self-perpetuating cycle where currency weakness flushes out equity investors and that takes the rupee weaker still."

CAPITAL CONTROLS?

The RBI's new measures also included further capping the amount that companies can invest abroad.

But overseas investments from India had already been on the wane, averaging a monthly $400 million in the first half of the year from $710 million in 2012, according to DBS data.

The biggest fear is that the RBI's action could be the start of a far stronger move to restrain capital.

"The steps taken so far only target residents, but if this raises expectations that they could potentially resort to capital controls targeted at non-residents, that could have adverse near-term implications for capital flows," HSBC's Chief economist for India and ASEAN Leif Eskesen said.

"It will, therefore, be critical to tread very carefully when it comes to capital controls, to anchor expectations, and also not use it as a substitute for more appropriate and effective measures," Eskesen said in a note to clients.

RUPEE FALLS

As policy makers struggling to find a solution for the rupee's falls, investors expect more weakness ahead. Overseas investors betting via one-month offshore non-deliverable forwards quoted the rupee trading at 62.46, while onshore bets see the rupee at 62.35 within the month.

Meanwhile, a Reuters poll on Thursday showed short positions in the Indian rupee have hit the highest in two months.

At heart of India's failed defense of the rupee so far is that none of the measures unveiled so far have given markets assurance that the country can attract foreign flows in an increasingly difficult global environment.

India last month unveiled plans to further ease restrictions on foreign direct investment (FDI) but previous measures have had mixed results. FDI fell to $36.9 billion in the fiscal year ending in March from $46.6 billion the previous year.

This week it announced measures to attract near-term capital inflows, including by spurring state-run companies to sell debt abroad and raising funds from Indians abroad.

As Indian rupee hits record low, foreign investors baulk | Reuters

 

[RiazHaq]

Here's NY Times on India's growing troubles:

...a summer of difficulties has dented India’s confidence, and a growing chorus of critics is starting to ask whether India’s rise may take years, and perhaps decades, longer than many had hoped.

“There is a growing sense of desperation out there, particularly among the young,” said Ramachandra Guha, one of India’s leading historians.

Three events last week crystallized those new worries. On Wednesday, one of India’s most advanced submarines, the Sindhurakshak, exploded and sank at its berth in Mumbai, almost certainly killing 18 of the 21 sailors on its night watch.

On Friday, a top Indian general announced that India had killed 28 people in recent weeks in and around the Line of Control in Kashmir as part of the worst fighting between India and Pakistan since a 2003 cease-fire.

Also Friday, the Sensex, the Indian stock index, plunged nearly 4 percent, while the value of the rupee continued to fall, reaching just under 62 rupees per dollar, a record low.

Each event was unrelated to the others, but together they paint a picture of a country that is rapidly losing its swagger. India’s growing economic worries are perhaps its most challenging.

“India is now the sick man of Asia,” said Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist at the financial information provider IHS Global Insight. “They are in a crisis.”

---.

The Indian government recently loosened restrictions on direct foreign investment, expecting a number of major retailers like Walmart and other companies to come rushing in. The companies have instead stayed away, worried not only by the government’s constant policy changes but also by the widespread and endemic corruption in Indian society.

The government has followed with a series of increasingly desperate policy announcements in recent weeks in hopes of turning things around, including an increase in import duties on gold and silver and attempts to defend the currency without raising interest rates too high.

Then Wednesday night, the government announced measures to restrict the amounts that individuals and local companies could invest overseas without seeking approval. It was an astonishing move in a country where a growing number of companies have global operations and ambitions.
---------
The submarine explosion revealed once again the vast strategic challenges that the Indian military faces and how far behind China it has fallen. India still relies on Russia for more than 60 percent of its defense equipment needs, and its army, air force and navy have vital Russian equipment that is often decades old and of increasingly poor quality.

The Sindhurakshak is one of 10 Russian-made Kilo-class submarines that India has as part of its front-line maritime defenses, but only six of India’s submarines are operational at any given time — far fewer than are needed to protect the nation’s vast coastline.

Indeed, India has fewer than 100 ships, compared with China’s 260. India is the world’s largest weapons importer, but with its economy under stress and foreign currency reserves increasingly precious, that level of purchases will be increasingly hard to sustain.

The country’s efforts to build its own weapons have largely been disastrous, and a growing number of corruption scandals have tainted its foreign purchases, including a recent deal to buy helicopters from Italy.

Unable to build or buy, India is becoming dangerously short of vital defense equipment, analysts say.

Meanwhile, the country’s bitter rivalry with Pakistan continues. Many analysts say that India is unlikely to achieve prominence on the world stage until it reaches some sort of resolution with Pakistan of disputes that have lasted for decades over Kashmir and other issues.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/19/business/global/a-summer-of-troubles-saps-indias-confidence.html

 

[JayAtl]

Oh gawd , Haq the huckster and fraudster is back spamming the same article in multiple threads.

 

[RiazHaq]

India on verge of financial crisis, says The Guardian:

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in Mumbai. The country is facing its own financial crisis. Photograph: Vivek Prakash/REUTERS
India's financial woes are rapidly approaching the critical stage. The rupee has depreciated by 44% in the past two years and hit a record low against the US dollar on Monday. The stock market is plunging, bond yields are nudging 10% and capital is flooding out of the country.

In a sense, this is a classic case of deja vu, a revisiting of the Asian crisis of 1997-98 that acted as an unheeded warning sign of what was in store for the global economy a decade later. An emerging economy exhibiting strong growth attracts the attention of foreign investors. Inward investment comes in together with hot money flows that circumvent capital controls. Capital inflows push up the exchange rate, making imports cheaper and exports dearer. The trade deficit balloons, growth slows, deep-seated structural flaws become more prominent and the hot money leaves.

The trigger for the run on the rupee has been the news from Washington that the Federal Reserve is considering scaling back - "tapering" - its bond-buying stimulus programme from next month. This has consequences for all emerging market economies: firstly, there is the fear that a reduced stimulus will mean weaker growth in the US, with a knock-on impact on exports from the developing world. Secondly, high-yielding currencies such as the rupee have benefited from a search for yield on the part of global investors. If policy is going to be tightened in the US, then the dollar becomes more attractive and the rupee less so.

But while the Indonesian rupee and the South African rand are also feeling the heat, it is India – with its large trade and budget deficits – that looks like the accident most likely to happen. On past form, emerging market crises go through three stages: in stage one, policymakers do nothing in the hope that the problem goes away. In stage two, they cobble together some panic measures, normally involving half-baked capital controls and selling of dollars in an attempt to underpin their currencies. In stage three, they either come up with a workable plan themselves or call in the IMF. India is on the cusp of stage three.

India on the brink of its own financial crisis | Business | The Guardian