World Bank sees Pakistan's potential to be a $2 trillion economy

[AUz]

At this time they're predicting an almost 400 Million population for Pakistan by 2050.

Incorrect. UN 2019 population revised projections put Pakistan has ~400 million in 2100, not 2050.

And this is if population growth rates follows current trajectory....which it most likely will not and will fall down rapidly as had happened in all Muslim countries.

Pakistan most likely would not even reach 350 million people, let alone 400 by 2050. Our peak population will be around 300 million more or less, not 400.

 

[Indos]

You are correct that an enlarging population is a valuable resource, but, like all resources, it takes a lot of time, effort and money to develop it to be actually productive. All current indicators suggest that a dire shortage of resources due to loan repayment and defense expenses will continue to make developing the population resource highly unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Yup, I think Defense budget should be kept under 1 percent of GDP and many of the money being saved can be used for other important thing like education.

Indonesia law since 2015 for example has forced government to spend on education at least 20 % of the total budget and our local government also spend for education.

Teacher and lecture salary should be raised to get the best people to teach our kids and this is why teacher salary in Jakarta is quite similar with Specialist medical doctor salary in Jakarta.

Malaysia also decrease its defense spending from 4.5 billion USD in 2014 into 3.5 billion USD in 2019 despite their GDP is larger from 2014.

Malaysia experience slower growth and some how their economic growth gets better since 2019.

 

[PakPrinciples]

You are correct that an enlarging population is a valuable resource, but, like all resources, it takes a lot of time, effort and money to develop it to be actually productive. All current indicators suggest that a dire shortage of resources due to loan repayment and defense expenses will continue to make developing the population resource highly unlikely for the foreseeable future.

I don't see this to be true at all.

Whether it's water, mineral resources, etc... Pakistan is literally short of nothing the country's problems are due to mismanagement.

For example, in terms of finances according to the article below in 2019 Pakistan registered approximately 3 Million tax filers:
https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk...isters-all-time-high-of-3m-active-tax-filers/

If you look at the FY20 budget which cites the FY19 revised figures those 3 Million tax filers paid approximately 1.6 Trillion PKR in income taxes.
http://www.finance.gov.pk/budget/Annual_budget_Statement_English_202021.pdf

According to the World Bank, at least their last updated figures from 2015, the top 20% of Pakistan's population earns approximately 42% of the countries income share.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.DST.05TH.20?locations=PK

That's approximately 40 Million people yet only 3 Million registered tax filers.

Let's assume those 40 Million people can be broken down exactly into 10 Million families of four people each and only the dad works.

That's still approximately 10 Million tax filers.

If you assume you're able to collect, on average, the same amount of income taxes that we currently collected based on the 2019 revised figures that's an additional $23 Billion USD collected in a single year that you can now re-invest into the economy to generate faster growth.

Again, I'm assuming down not up.

Furthermore, those assumptions don't even take into account increased revenues from property and sales taxes we can collect through proper investment or tariffs we could collect raising our tariffs rates and/or investing in border security to stop smuggling.

Honestly, we should be able to collect waaay more than an additional $23 Billion USD and Pakistan can experience exponential growth particularly with a growing population.

This isn't a curse the problem is Pakistan was managed poorly and the people have suffered for it. Even now Khan, imo, doesn't focus on the right things.

Incorrect. UN 2019 population revised projections put Pakistan has ~400 million in 2100, not 2050.

You're sort of right but you only have part of the picture.

You can read the UN report yourself titled "World Population Prospects 2019" which states that by 2050:

"After this re-ordering between 2019 and 2050, the ranking of the five largest countries is projected to be preserved through the end of the century, when India could remain the world’s most populous... and Pakistan with 403 Million inhabitants"​

UN | World Population Prospects 2019​

The UN projections are revised from earlier estimates like the 2017 report they put out which projected a population of 307 Million by 2050:
UN | World Population Prospects 2017

US Census projects populations and other metrics for countries globally and their updated projections state that Pakistan will have about 366.6 Million people by 2050:
https://www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/idb/#/country?YR_ANIM=2050&FIPS_SINGLE=PK&COUNTRY_YEAR=2050

What I think you've likely read is that Pakistan's population will peak at around 400 Million by 2050 and with reduced fertility rates, an aging population and increased mortality rates the population stabilizes around that figure.

In fact if you look at the earlier link to the US Census website you'll see that they project Pakistan's 2100 population to be about 475 Million.

However, you're right too in that things can change. Depending on the speed of economic growth we could see revisions down but like I said these projection changes were also based on the idea that you'd have longer lifespans and lower child mortality rates which more than make up for an assumed declining fertility rate.

 

[FuturePAF]

Yup, I think Defense budget should be kept under 1 percent of GDP and many of the money being saved can be used for other important thing like education.

Indonesia law since 2015 for example has forced government to spend on education at least 20 % of the total budget and our local government also spend for education.

Teacher and lecture salary should be raised to get the best people to teach our kids and this is why teacher salary in Jakarta is quite similar with Specialist medical doctor salary in Jakarta.

Malaysia also decrease its defense spending from 4.5 billion USD in 2014 into 3.5 billion USD in 2019 despite their GDP is larger from 2014.

Malaysia experience slower growth and some how their economic growth gets better since 2019.

Ideally we should minimize all non-developmental spending and redirect it to the means to improve human capital development, and economic development, but considering the threats on the border, its a tough set of priorities to balance and maintain safety under which development can occur. Hence the need to attract FDI as a reflection of the relatively stable security situation and large domestic consumer market. Pakistan needs to find ways to grow its way out of its current budget limitations and seeking FDI rather than redirecting taxes seems to be the path the government is going down.

 

[Indos]

Ideally we should minimize all non-developmental spending and redirect it to the means to improve human capital development, and economic development, but considering the threats on the border, its a tough set of priorities to balance and maintain safety under which development can occur. Hence the need to attract FDI as a reflection of the relatively stable security situation and large domestic consumer market. Pakistan needs to find ways to grow its way out of its current budget limitations and seeking FDI rather than redirecting taxes seems to be the path the government is going down.

Pakistan with current military equipment and personnel have already been powerful, not to mention you have nuclear power and China backing (Today China has become world power, unlike what happen before 2010).

India also relies their energy from Muslim countries. As long as you dont attack India first, I believe India will not attack your country. Today situation is not like in the old days. Leaders and strategist have put more importance on economy and technology development over big defense spending to be a strong nation after what happen with USSR in 1990's and China after the year 2000.

Defense budget IMO should be set below 1 percent for Pakistan that currently experience economic difficulty and you should not worry on the budget as long as your economy grows relatively fast. It is because defense spending will grow naturally following economic and gov spending growth, so with that policy defense spending can be more sustainable while in the same time other important sectors can get enough budget as well like education and infrastructure.

Indonesia defense budget is also below 1 percent of its total GDP (0.7 %) while China defense budget is still less than 2 percent of their GDP. In the other hand Pakistan has defense budget 4 % of the GDP number which is too much and not to mention you also finance the weapon acquisition through loan for defense equipment from China.

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

 

[FuturePAF]

Pakistan with current military equipment and personnel have already been powerful, not to mention you have nuclear power and China backing (Today China has become world power, unlike what happen before 2010).

India also relies their energy from Muslim countries. As long as you dont attack India first, I believe India will not attack your country. Today situation is not like in the old days. Leaders and strategist have put more importance on economy and technology development over big defense spending to be a strong nation after what happen with USSR in 1990's and China after the year 2000.

Defense budget IMO should be set below 1 percent for Pakistan that currently experience economic difficulty and you should not worry on the budget as long as your economy grows relatively fast. It is because defense spending will grow naturally following economic and gov spending growth, so with that policy defense spending can be more sustainable while in the same time other important sectors can get enough budget as well like education and infrastructure.

Indonesia defense budget is also below 1 percent of its total GDP (0.7 %) while China defense budget is still less than 2 percent of their GDP. In the other hand Pakistan has defense budget 4 % of the GDP number which is too much and not to mention you also finance the weapon acquisition through loan for defense equipment from China.

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

With the defense budget at 4% of current GDP, the government seems to be slimming down everything else (through auditing and anti-corruption drive) and reinvesting those funds before touching the defense budget.

In a sense Pakistan is current in multiple conflicts (LOC, Two western borders that need to be watched, and foreign funded insurgencies) and can’t afford to lower it guard. This is probably why it will try to get back into the good graces of the US when Biden comes in, and can lower its own spending on defense and rely for at least a few years on foreign funds.

 

[VCheng]

I don't see this to be true at all.

Whether it's water, mineral resources, etc... Pakistan is literally short of nothing the country's problems are due to mismanagement.

Yet the fact remains that none of these fabled resources have ever seen the actual light of day. The one bounty we did use was the natural gas at Sui, which is on its way out. Given the rate of the population increase, resource scarcity will continue to hamper progress, starting with water and energy.

Honestly, we should be able to collect waaay more than an additional $23 Billion USD and Pakistan can experience exponential growth particularly with a growing population.

This isn't a curse the problem is Pakistan was managed poorly and the people have suffered for it. Even now Khan, imo, doesn't focus on the right things.

And yet again, there is a consistent failure across all types of governments to improve the tax to GDP ratio.

One could conclude that mismanagement is a design feature of the system and not a flaw to be removed, since it works to enrich a certain subset of people.

Yup, I think Defense budget should be kept under 1 percent of GDP and many of the money being saved can be used for other important thing like education.

Indonesia law since 2015 for example has forced government to spend on education at least 20 % of the total budget and our local government also spend for education.

Teacher and lecture salary should be raised to get the best people to teach our kids and this is why teacher salary in Jakarta is quite similar with Specialist medical doctor salary in Jakarta.

Malaysia also decrease its defense spending from 4.5 billion USD in 2014 into 3.5 billion USD in 2019 despite their GDP is larger from 2014.

Malaysia experience slower growth and some how their economic growth gets better since 2019.

After debt servicing, the expense on defense is a major head, and will likely remain so. Hence, social development will remain starved of adequate funds.