World at 8 Billion: Pakistan is Fourth Largest Contributor to Last Billion

[RiazHaq]

World at 8 Billion: Pakistan is Fourth Largest Contributor to Last Billion

The global population increased by one billion over the last 12 years to reach 8 billion this year, according to the United Nations. Pakista...

www.southasiainvestor.com

The global population increased by one billion over the last 12 years to reach 8 billion this year, according to the United Nations. Pakistan contributed 49 million people to the last billion, making it the fourth largest contributor after India (177 million), China (73 million) and Nigeria (51 million). Nigeria is expected to soon overtake Indonesia and Pakistan to become the world's 4th most populous nation. More than half of the projected increase in the global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania. Rising working age population is turning Pakistan into a major global consumer market. It is also fueling Pakistan's growing surplus labor exports and record overseas worker remittances.

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​ Pakistan Among Top 4 Contributors to Last Billion Population. Source: UN/Worldometers

World's 7th Largest Consumer Market:

Pakistan's share of the working age population (15-64 years) is growing as the country's birth rate declines, a phenomenon called demographic dividend. With its rising population of this working age group, Pakistan is projected by the World Economic Forum to become the world's 7th largest consumer market by 2030. Nearly 60 million Pakistanis will join the consumer class (consumers spending more than $11 per day) to raise the country's consumer market rank from 15 to 7 by 2030. WEF forecasts the world's top 10 consumer markets of 2030 to be as follows: China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, Pakistan, Japan, Egypt and Mexico. Global investors chasing bigger returns will almost certainly shift more of their attention and money to the biggest movers among the top 10 consumer markets, including Pakistan. Already, the year 2021 has been a banner year for investments in Pakistani technology startups.

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Consumer Markets in 2030. Source: WEF

Labor Exports:

With rapidly aging populations and declining number of working age people in North America, Europe and East Asia, the demand for workers will increasingly be met by major labor exporting nations like Bangladesh, China, India, Mexico, Pakistan, Russia and Vietnam. Among these nations, Pakistan is the only major labor exporting countries where the working age population is still rising.

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Working Age Population Declining Among Major Labor Exporters. Source: Nikkei Asia

Over 10 million Pakistanis are currently working/living overseas, according to the Bureau of Emigration. Before the COVID19 pandemic hit in 2020, more than 600,000 Pakistanis left the country to work overseas in 2019. Nearly 700,000 Pakistanis have already migrated in this calendar year as of October, 2022. The average yearly outflow of Pakistani workers to OECD countries (mainly UK and US) and the Middle East was over half a million in the last decade.

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Pakistani Workers Going Overseas. Source: Bureau of Emigration

Record Remittances From Overseas Pakistanis:

Pakistan is already seeing high levels of labor export and record remittances of over $30 billion pouring into the country. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates(UAE) are the top two sources of remittances but the biggest increase (58%) in remittances is seen this year from Pakistanis in the next two sources: the United Kingdom and the United States.

Remittances from the European Union (EU) to Pakistan soared 49.7% in FY 21 and 28.3% in FY22, according to the State Bank of Pakistan. With $2.5 billion remittances in the first 9 months (July-March) of the current fiscal year, the EU ($2.5 billion) has now surpassed North America ($2.2 billion) to become the third largest source of inflows to Pakistan after the Middle East and the United Kingdom. Remittances from the US have grown 21%, second fastest after the EU (28.3%) in the first 9 months of the current fiscal year.

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Worker Remittances as Percentage of Pakistan GDP. Source: World Bank

Pakistan ranks 6th among the top worker remittance recipient countries in the world. India and China rank first and second, followed by Mexico 3rd, the Philippines 4th, Egypt 5th and Pakistan 6th.

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Pakistan Demographics

About two million Pakistanis are entering the workforce every year. The share of the working age population in Pakistan is increasing while the birth rate is declining. This phenomenon, known as demographic dividend, is coinciding with declines in working age populations in developed countries. It is creating an opportunity for over half a million Pakistani workers to migrate and work overseas, and send home record remittances.

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World at 8 Billion: Pakistan is Fourth Largest Contributor to Last Billion

The global population increased by one billion over the last 12 years to reach 8 billion this year, according to the United Nations. Pakista...

www.southasiainvestor.com

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@RiazHaq

Brofessor sb,

Since the population of your taller than mountain friend is now declining, in the next billion India gets Gold, Pak gets Silver. Presumably Nigeria gets Bronze.

Regards

 

[nahtanbob]

@RiazHaq

Brofessor sb,

Since the population of your taller than mountain friend is now declining, in the next billion India gets Gold, Pak gets Silver. Presumably Nigeria gets Bronze.

Regards

If Pakistan gets to silver they will hit the shithole. Of course Riaz Haq would be dead by then

 

[Olympus81]

Message to Pakistanis: stop producing like rabbits.

 

[Abu Shaleh Rumi]

Message to Pakistanis: stop producing like rabbits.

Ops, Pakistanis can't point their finger at Bengalis now...

 

[Maula Jatt]

Our land is amongst the most beautiful one's in the world, our ancestors were smart and created civilizations, education centers

But Look at us now cousin shagging and f**** like rabbits like a bunch of retards

What a mess, give out free condoms and birth control in districts with higher fertility rates - polio style

 

[salarsikander]

Well cant do much if Desi men and women are more potent, that in single bong you get babies, but right now what we need is to focus more on ways to creat employment as opposed to creating moe babies,
If a country suffers from Inflation, mismanagement, corruption and all the ills wills, its natural to expect men bonging and bonging to remove their frustartion

 

[Maula Jatt]

Well cant do much if Desi men and women are more potent, that in single bong you get babies, but right now what we need is to focus more on ways to creat employment as opposed to creating moe babies,
If a country suffers from Inflation, mismanagement, corruption and all the ills wills, its natural to expect men bonging and bonging to remove their frustartion

Keep banging but use condoms while banging or take birth control

Banging isn't the issue, everyone bangs around the globe

 

[salarsikander]

Keep banging but use condoms while banging or take birth control

Banging isn't the issue, everyone bangs around the globe

too poor to afford the rubber or too ignorant to know about that

 

[RiazHaq]

Migration Can Boost South Asia’s Recovery and Support Long-Term Development

Migration Can Boost South Asia’s Recovery and Support Long-Term Development

Migration Can Boost South Asia’s Recovery and Support Long-Term Development

www.worldbank.org

Migration drives economic growth as it allows people to move to where they are more productive. International migrants from Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka who work in the Gulf states, for example, earn up to five times what they would at home and help generate some of the largest remittance inflows in the world. Nepal derives an estimated 20 percent of its income from remittance inflows, and in Bangladesh and Pakistan, remittance revenue accounts for 6 and 8 percent of GDP, respectively. Migration also allows people to adjust to local economic shocks, such as extreme-weather disasters, to which South Asia’s rural poor are highly vulnerable.

“While migration has numerous economic benefits, the costs of moving such as credit constraints, lack of information, and labor market frictions prevent them from being fully realized,” said Eaknarayan Aryal, Secretary, Ministry of Labor, Employment, and Social Security in Nepal. “Nepal and countries across South Asia must work to facilitate labor mobility as doing so is vital to the region’s recovery and resilience to future shocks.”

Poor South Asian migrants, many of whom hold temporary jobs in the informal sector, face several challenges such as precarious labor market conditions, visas tied to employment, and limited access to social protection. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed their long-standing vulnerabilities as they were disproportionately affected by restrictions to movement. However, the later phase of the pandemic has highlighted the crucial role migration can play in facilitating recovery. Survey data from the report suggests that in late 2021 and early 2022, migration flows are associated with movement from areas hit hard by the pandemic to those that were not, thus helping equilibrate demand and supply of labor in the aftermath of the COVID-19 shock. In Nepal, by late 2021, migrants were 13 percentage points more likely to be employed than those who did not migrate after facing job loss during the early months of the pandemic.

“Migration is picking up again in South Asia, but remains slow and uneven, raising concerns that the pandemic shock has had long-term impacts on the costs and frictions associated with it,” said Hans Timmer, World Bank Chief Economist for South Asia. “Policymakers must address these often-prohibitive costs and frictions and incorporate measures to de-risk migration.”

The report offers several recommendations on cutting the high costs of migration, including drawing bilateral and multilateral agreements, strengthening the remittance infrastructure, and offering information and training programs to help potential migrants make better decisions about moving. It also offers recommendations on de-risking migration through means such as more flexible visa policies, mechanisms to support migrant workers during shocks, and social protection programs.

“South Asia is the largest beneficiary of remittance in the world. Remittance has played a central role in alleviating poverty, coping with economic shocks, and making substantial progress toward sustainable development goals in Nepal,” said Dr. Biswash Gauchan, IIDS Executive Chair. “However, the socioeconomic and political cost of migration is also very high in the country where a substantial number of the working-age population has gone abroad in search of employment. IIDS is happy to host this regional conference on this crucial theme in Nepal in collaboration with the World Bank, particularly in the aftermath of the COVID-19.”

The next wave of mass migration
FEDERICA SAINI FASANOTTI
Extreme weather events are likely to become the main cause behind waves of immigration toward Europe.

The next wave of mass migration

With climate change causing more extreme weather events, natural disasters could become the main factor driving migration.

www.gisreportsonline.com

urricane Ian, which disrupted the lives of millions when it swept over the Gulf of Mexico in late September this year, will not soon be forgotten. Torrential rains and winds of up to 240 kilometers per hour produced an extraordinary surge that flooded not only coastal areas but also their hinterland.

At the same time, Typhoon Noru was slamming into the Philippines. Earlier this year, Hurricane Fiona formed near Puerto Rico and hit Canada with unprecedented force, and Typhoon Nanmadol drove 9 million people to evacuate from their homes in Japan. Typhoon Merbok devastated Alaska with waves more than 50 feet high. Pakistan saw dramatic floods, aggravated by melting local glaciers. Leaving as much as one third of the country underwater, and more than 1,600 people and 800,000 livestock dead, the disaster will change the face of Pakistan for decades. The United Nations has called these phenomena the footprint of climate change.

Although Africa’s 54 states have not contributed significantly to the global emissions that accelerated climate change, the continent is one of the hardest hit. Desertification, dust storms and rising sea levels are poised to wreak havoc on large segments of the African populace.

By 2100, Africa is expected to account for 40 percent of the global population, which will grow to 11 billion. There will likely be 2.5 billion Africans by 2050. Amar Bhattacharya of the Brookings Institution writes that this growth will require an extraordinary increase in investment in “three critical areas: energy transitions and related investments in sustainable infrastructure; investments in climate change adaptation and resilience; and restoration of natural capital (through agriculture, food and land use practices) and biodiversity. … Altogether, Africa will need to invest around $200 billion per year by 2025 and close to $400 billion per year by 2030 on these priorities.”

African governments will be the first line of defense to safeguard the continent’s biological heritage, such as the rainforest of the Congo River Basin, which like the Amazon is crucial to removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Africa’s worst climate-related changes in recent decades are not hurricanes, but rather a persistent drought. The near extinction of Lake Chad is a prime example, as are the widening of the Sahel desert belt southward and the increasingly long periods without rain throughout the Maghreb. The population will grow but rainfall will decrease, thus rapidly shrinking the amount of arable land. And temperatures will rise – in a continent where only half of the 1.2 billion residents have access to electricity.

If these trends continue unchecked, much of Africa will ultimately become uninhabitable. In the Lake Chad basin, 5.3 million people (mostly fishermen and farmers) were displaced by climate-related changes. Experts predict that Africa’s glaciers will disappear: those of Mount Kenya by 2030 and those of Mount Kilimanjaro by 2040.

Already, small rural communities in the Maghreb struggle to produce enough to subsist. The same goes for intensive agriculture, which in Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria, generates up to a fifth of gross domestic product. Even slight disruptions will have exponential effects on those societies.

 

[tower9]

So basically 70 years from now there will be 2.5X more Indians than Chinese and Pakistan's population will be 60% of China's. China's population is collapsing.

 

[Black Tornado]

So basically 70 years from now there will be 2.5X more Indians than Chinese and Pakistan's population will be 60% of China's. China's population is collapsing.

India's TFR is 2.1 which means we've controlled our population growth, we'll have a decline in population from 2045-2050 onwards.

 

[tower9]

India's TFR is 2.1 which means we've controlled our population growth, we'll have a decline in population from 2045-2050 onwards.

I am sure with more economic development India’s population growth will also decline

 

[INS_Vikrant]

I am sure with more economic development India’s population growth will also decline

And inflation too, in Mumbai avg middle class family can barely afford to raise a single child that too with both parents employed. Today my nephew/nieces Montessori and Kindergarten school fees are more than what my college fees was around 10-12 years back.

 

[tower9]

And inflation too, in Mumbai avg middle class family can barely afford to raise a single child that too with both parents employed. Today my nephew/nieces Montessori and Kindergarten school fees are more than what my college fees was around 10-12 years back.

Yeah thats a worldwide problem.