Winning in the long run

[Ahmed Jo]

We all became emotional and angry at the immolation of our pilot by the terrorist group Daesh.

The savagery and cruelty of the act made everybody desire vengeance on. As a result, statements, acts of bravado, marches, holding of funerals throughout the Kingdom and sorties on Daesh positions followed, with all cheering on.

Since this, as most conflicts demonstrate, promises to be a long and multifaceted conflict, short-term bursts of action alone do not suffice.

To sustain unity in spirit and resolve, and further buttress the domestic front, much more needs to be done.

It should not be surprising that a call for real economic reform will also be on Jordan’s current and future national agenda.

This not a call to reform à la IMF, but a reform that encourages local development, in all 12 governorates, not just in Amman.

The current confrontation with Daesh should not lead to a larger government. Reform should target the creation of a smaller government through the growth of a vibrant economy.

One goal of this reform should be to shrink the demand for public sector jobs by having an extremely attractive private sector.

This is the safest and most necessary route.

According to American economist Robert Barro, only when the government is small (measured by expenditure as a percentage of the GDP) will its expenditures have a positive impact on growth, but when the government is large, its expenditure will have adversary effects on growth as inherent inefficiencies grow and spread throughout the economy.

Therefore, reform must address competitiveness, attract investment, and an expanded and enriched private sector.

Reform will not happen without encouraging the three freedoms: individual, civil rights and political liberties.

Higher quality growth (predictable long-term growth rates and high short-term economic stability) is spurred more by institutions of democratic regimes.

Civil and political liberties are also associated with greater overall equity and gender equality, which lead to further and faster growth.

Legitimate governments can make difficult decisions when it comes to reform; imposed ones are volatile.

Therefore, the very few voices that support Daesh and mayhem out there, albeit temporarily subdued, will most likely re-emerge as soon as the emotional peak subsides.

And here will be a desire among the military and security apparatuses to want suppress freedoms; alas, if that happens, reform will fail once more and more harm than good will be done.

A prescription, therefore, for our times is to maintain a strong military and security stance while carrying out reform above all.

The question should never be guns versus bread, but guns and bread. The task is difficult, but it can be done.
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I agree with what this says regarding econmic reform but I think when it comes to political liberties there should be a system fit specifically for that country rather than following other countries' models to the letter.

 

[al-Hasani]

Jordan is better off than most of the ME and Muslim world when it comes to social and political rights. It's the economy that should be the priority. Look at Lebanon as an inspiration here. They have a GDP (nominal) per capita of $11,070. That's twice that of Jordan and more than double of that of impoverished Mullahstan. That's without any natural resources of worth and despite earlier being known as the most volatile Arab country.

@Halimi

I feel that all those millions of refugees in total (Palestinian, Iraqi and now Syrian) are making things much more difficult.

Although it's a microscopic minority like everywhere else then I feel that those Jordanians that have joined Daesh were largely unemployed people who struggled financially.

Anyway look at it this way. The death of the pilot has contributed to almost a non-existent support for Daesh and it united the nation in a very difficult time for the region.

What is the unemployment rate in Jordan overall and for the youth?

 

[Ahmed Jo]

Jordan is better off than most of the ME and Muslim world when it comes to social and political rights. It's the economy that should be the priority. Look at Lebanon as an inspiration here. They have a GDP (nominal) per capita of $11,070. That's twice that of Jordan and more than double of that in Iran. That's without any natural resources of worth and despite earlier being known as the most volatile Arab country. @Halimi I feel that all those millions of refugees in total (Palestinian, Iraqi and now Syrian) are making things much more difficult. Although it's a microscopic minority like everywhere else then I feel that those Jordanians that have joined Daesh were largely unemployed people who struggled financially. Anyway look at it this way. The death of the pilot has contributed to almost a non-existent support for Daesh and it united the nation in a very difficult time for the region. What is the unemployment rate in Jordan overall and for the youth?

Jordan is better off than most of the ME and Muslim world when it comes to social and political rights. It's the economy that should be the priority. Look at Lebanon as an inspiration here. They have a GDP (nominal) per capita of $11,070. That's twice that of Jordan and more than double of that in Iran. That's without any natural resources of worth and despite earlier being known as the most volatile Arab country. @Halimi I feel that all those millions of refugees in total (Palestinian, Iraqi and now Syrian) are making things much more difficult. Although it's a microscopic minority like everywhere else then I feel that those Jordanians that have joined Daesh were largely unemployed people who struggled financially. Anyway look at it this way. The death of the pilot has contributed to almost a non-existent support for Daesh and it united the nation in a very difficult time for the region. What is the unemployment rate in Jordan overall and for the youth?

Jordan is better off than most of the ME and Muslim world when it comes to social and political rights. It's the economy that should be the priority. Look at Lebanon as an inspiration here. They have a GDP (nominal) per capita of $11,070. That's twice that of Jordan and more than double of that in Iran. That's without any natural resources of worth and despite earlier being known as the most volatile Arab country. @Halimi I feel that all those millions of refugees in total (Palestinian, Iraqi and now Syrian) are making things much more difficult. Although it's a microscopic minority like everywhere else then I feel that those Jordanians that have joined Daesh were largely unemployed people who struggled financially. Anyway look at it this way. The death of the pilot has contributed to almost a non-existent support for Daesh and it united the nation in a very difficult time for the region. What is the unemployment rate in Jordan overall and for the youth?

I don't know why it quoted you like a million times but anyway the official unemployment rate in Jordan is 11.4% but the thing is that it is focused on certain areas such as Maan where it's as high as 25% or even higher in some other areas. That's why on the article it says that focus should be on all governorates, not just Amman.

 

[al-Hasani]

I don't know why it quoted you like a million times but anyway the official unemployment rate in Jordan is 11.4% but the thing is that it is focused on certain areas such as Maan where it's as high as 25% or even higher in some other areas. That's why on the article it says that focus should be on all governorates, not just Amman.

Well, the main challenge for ME leaders today and on the long run will be to create as many job opportunities as possible for populations that are already extremely young and which are growing in size.

Even in the extremely wealthy GCC this is a challenge.

 

[haviZsultan]

Jordan is better off than most of the ME and Muslim world when it comes to social and political rights. It's the economy that should be the priority. Look at Lebanon as an inspiration here. They have a GDP (nominal) per capita of $11,070. That's twice that of Jordan and more than double of that in Iran. That's without any natural resources of worth and despite earlier being known as the most volatile Arab country.

@Halimi

I feel that all those millions of refugees in total (Palestinian, Iraqi and now Syrian) are making things much more difficult.

Although it's a microscopic minority like everywhere else then I feel that those Jordanians that have joined Daesh were largely unemployed people who struggled financially.

Anyway look at it this way. The death of the pilot has contributed to almost a non-existent support for Daesh and it united the nation in a very difficult time for the region.

What is the unemployment rate in Jordan overall and for the youth?

11,000 GDP is not high. Why not compare to the UAE (40000+), Qatar (80,000+) or Brunei (one of the richest nations in the world) which have much better gdp per capitas. Lebanon is no inspiration, even in the military field where they have a weak army. Venezuela has a similar gdp per capita and is suffering severe gang violence.

 

[al-Hasani]

11,000 GDP is not high. Why not compare to the UAE (40000+), Qatar (80,000+) or Brunei (one of the richest nations in the world) which have much better gdp per capitas. Lebanon is no inspiration, even in the military field where they have a weak army. Venezuela has a similar gdp per capita and is suffering severe gang violence.

You are comparing the most wealthy nation states who have been blessed with enormous natural resources with a small country like Lebanon that have no such luxury and which moreover has been volatile for decades. Lebanon has the 67th highest GDP per capita (nominal). It's by no means a bad result compared to your average Muslim or third-world country. Considering the circumstances it is not bad.

Venezuela actually have a significantly lower GDP per capita (nominal). Around $7,576 despite having one of the biggest oil reserves in the world. Not impressive.

Lebanon has a GDP per capita (nominal) almost 10 times bigger than that of Pakistan so I wonder what you would call your own country's economy if "Lebanon is no inspiration", lol.

Yes, Jordan could look towards Lebanon for inspiration. You would agree if you were more familiar with the Arab world and knew why I say so and why @Ahmed Jo agrees.

 

[Ahmed Jo]

11,000 GDP is not high. Why not compare to the UAE (40000+), Qatar (80,000+) or Brunei (one of the richest nations in the world) which have much better gdp per capitas. Lebanon is no inspiration, even in the military field where they have a weak army. Venezuela has a similar gdp per capita and is suffering severe gang violence.

All those states have oil so Lebanon's GDP per capita is goal worthy for Jordan since it achieved it without natural resources. Although I am glad that Jordan doesn't have a weak military like Lebanon.

 

[al-Hasani]

All those states have oil so Lebanon's GDP per capita is goal worthy for Jordan since it achieved it without natural resources. Although I am glad that Jordan doesn't have a weak military like Lebanon.

Having been blessed with natural resources etc. is no guarantee of a high GDP per capita or a big economy which almost all African countries are a shinning example of. Let alone dozens of South American (Venezuela was mentioned here and they are 4-5 times worse of than KSA despite having similar amounts of natural riches and a similar population) and Central Asian countries, ME countries etc. to name a few.

The GDP (nominal) of the GCC alone is almost 2 trillion US dollars big. It speaks volume.

 

[Ahmed Jo]

Having been blessed with natural resources etc. is no guarantee of a high GDP per capita or a big economy which almost all African countries are a shinning example of. Let alone dozens of South American (Venezuela was mentioned here and they are 4-5 times worse of than KSA despite having similar amounts of natural riches and a similar population) and Central Asian countries, ME countries etc. to name a few.

The GDP (nominal) of the GCC alone is almost 2 trillion US dollars big. It speaks volume.

I think it also requires quality leadership like in the GCC states (at least regarding economic matters).

 

[haviZsultan]

You are comparing the most wealthy nation states who have been blessed with enormous natural resources with a small country like Lebanon that have no such luxury and which moreover has been volatile for decades. Lebanon has the 67th highest GDP per capita (nominal). It's by no means a bad result compared to your average Muslim or third-world country. Considering the circumstances it is not bad.

Venezuela actually have a significantly lower GDP per capita (nominal). Around $7,576 despite having one of the biggest oil reserves in the world. Not impressive.

Lebanon has a GDP per capita (nominal) almost 10 times bigger than that of Pakistan so I wonder what you would call your own country's economy if "Lebanon is no inspiration", lol.

Yes, Jordan could look towards Lebanon for inspiration. You would agree if you were more familiar with the Arab world and knew why I say so and why @Ahmed Jo agrees.

I do not agree. Democratic Republic of Congo is perhaps one of the poorest states in the world yet it has so much resources that they are overflowing. It has the highest amount of diamonds and raw mineral resources. Yet it is fledgling. Having resources is not a major measure of a good economy. Lebanon's economy is better than many countries in the muslim world but it is not up to snuff compared to other countries.

However it should be noted that Lebanese are hard working people too, unlike the arabs of Saudi Arabia and UAE who seem to be laid back a bit. The Lebanese economy is also growing faster than some other economies.

 

[al-Hasani]

I do not agree. Democratic Republic of Congo is perhaps one of the poorest states in the world yet it has so much resources that they are overflowing. It has the highest amount of diamonds and raw mineral resources. Yet it is fledgling. Having resources is not a major measure of a good economy. Lebanon's economy is better than many countries in the muslim world but it is not up to snuff compared to other countries.

However it should be noted that Lebanese are hard working people too, unlike the arabs of Saudi Arabia and UAE who seem to be laid back a bit. The Lebanese economy is also growing faster than some other economies.

Did you even bother to read my posts? Your reply is confusing. Try to read my post number 8 in this very thread.

Almost every African, Central Asian and many Southern American countries are very rich in terms of minerals, natural resources etc. yet that does not guarantee them a health economy. Whether GDP (nominal) or GDP per capita (nominal). The most important thing overall is to have clever leaders from an economic viewpoint and that's what GCC has done right and that's why the GDP (nominal) of the GCC alone is almost 2 trillion (!) US dollars big. If the rulers were as bad as those in Africa, South America, Central Asia etc. the GCC would be just like them.

That's your prejudice and ignorance speaking. Arabians were one of the most hard-working people historically. Look at the Yemeni diaspora. One of the most successful Muslim diasporas across the world. The first Muslim community in Britain for instance. Yemeni Arabs have held numerous political, social, military, business and scientific positions in countries like Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, East Africa let alone the GCC. Even in Latin America they are present.

The second richest African is of Yemeni origin. Presidents and prime ministers from East Africa to Southeast Asia have been of Yemeni origin.

The young generation in the GCC is talented, hard-working and curious to learn. Evident of the 200.000 Saudi Arabian students (!) alone that are studying at leading universities from USA to Japan.

It's just that in extremely wealthy societies you will have extreme situations often. For instance rich people doing nothing other than investing their money and having foreign employees that do everything for them (of course I am overrating) and then you will have less fortunate locals who are working their *** off and trying to survive the day and paying the often high rents for flats etc.