Winner or Loser? Crimea annexation.

[Mighty Caty]

Russian officially annexed Crimea as part of the Russia Federation on the 16th March 2014.

On this forum, people keep refer this to as a Russian Victory, saying it the triumph of Putin over EU or even NATO, but was it really so? This article is to investigate what is gain and lose by the three side allegedly involved (Russia, Ukraine and EU/NATO) in this political saga.

Russia

Before the annexation, Russia enjoy a bilateral trading and good relation between Baltics states (Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia) to Far East independent State (Moldova and Transnistria) and of course Ukraine itself.

However, since the 2014 annexation, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, as part of NATO, have increase support with the US and NATO Troop and increased trade within EU and decreased trade against Russia as part of EU Sanction toward Russia. Moldova have requested EU/NATO membership, with EU action plan in place since 2011 and the next round of talk between EU/Moldova is due to hold in 28 April. Transnistria request an official integration of Russia Federation followed Crimea annexation.

Ukraine have purposed stop bilateral trade until Russia troop vacate Crimea, plans for Ukraine to join EU/NATO have been established since 2008 and EU Association agreement is signed by Ukraine on 21 March 2014.

Ukraine have been opposing from joining NATO as recent as February in 2014. With an 26% of Ukraine sees NATO is more a threat then the Russian Federation. However, since the annexation, move have been established for Ukraine to join NATO and EU with the next round of talk expected to move through action plans.

Overall Russian Gain

-Crimea Province
-Transnistria (Breakaway province from Moldova)

Overall Russian Lose

-Baltic States move away from Russia
-Moldova move away from Russia and closer to EU/NATO
-Ukraine move away from Russia and closer to EU/NATO

Ukraine

Ukraine have been a strong Russia Allies before March 2014 and have resist the attempt to join both EU and NATO even though protocol have already been in place since 2008. Before the annexation, 26% of Ukraine on average states object to NATO partnership (51% in Crimea) and have been seen as the reserving factor of any move between NATO/EU with Ukraine.

After the Crimea succession and eventually annexed by Russia, This move both lower the number of Ukrainian oppose to EU/NATO and negate the vote in Crimea as part of Ukrainian constitution states that all province have to agree on any foreign policy move suggested by the government before said policy goes into implementation. Crimea break away pave way for Ukrainian joing the EU/NATO.

Overall Ukraine Gain

-EU/NATO partership otherwise cannot be obtained before Crimea was annexed by Russia

Overall Ukraine Lose

-Crimea Province

EU/NATO

EU/NATO have established at the Baltics and Romania as their boundary. With Eastern European country Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova as buffer between Russia and EU/NATO Influence.

After the annexation, Belarus remain unchanged to Russia, while Ukraine and Moldova both move toward EU/NATO. Which open a direct border to Russia. Meanwhile strengthening the relation of former Soviet state in EU/NATO (Baltic States, Croatia, Poland, Hungary and Romania) And also strengthening their position in Far East Europe (Georgia and Ukraine) both of which is more closer to joining EU/NATO then before.

Overall EU/NATO Gain

-Moldova applied to join EU/NATO
-Ukraine (Minus Crimea) applied to join EU/NATO
-Strengthening of EU/NATO states in former Soviet Union
-Strengthening of Far East European states.
-Opening Direct border to Russia (Given both Moldova and Ukraine successfully joining EU/NATO)

Overall EU/NATO Lose

-Nil (No territories change)

The conspiracy behind Crimea Annexation

It may seems quite strange that Crimea Annexation can be allow to proceed without any significant bloodshed(Other than a single fatality resulting of a Russian soldier shooting). The annexation have been heavily compared to the Russo-Georgia War in 2008 when Russia similarly annexed South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia, However, the main different is, Georgia, although 10 times smaller and less capable militarily, picked up a fight, the Ukrainian did not. While both without EU/NATO support during the short lived conflict.

It's seems as either Ukraine did not actually concern about the potential territorial lost or they are too gun shine to fight the Russian. So what I am going to do is to compare both Situation in Georgia and situation in Ukraine

In Georgia, the political unity is greater, Both South Ossetia and Abkhazia did not serve as residual factor for Georgia joining NATO or EU, with plan already in motion and running, the Georgia government do not need to concern with the opinion of the two province to join either EU and NATO, the only concern of these two province for Georgia is the sovereignty integrity, which is to hold the country together. And Georgia is too small to lose two break away sovereignty together. Hence, defending South Ossetia and Georgia is to defend the Georgia national integrity.

In Ukraine, the political unity is not as great and province have to all agree on the country foreign relation for it to be implement. For years the Ukraine have plan to join EU and NATO, but with province objection, it cannot be implement into country's foreign policy.

With Crimea gone, that lifted the restriction of Ukraine from joining EU and NATO, which is what the Ukraine central government wanted, and by losing a Russia condense population (51% of Crimean is ethnic Russian), Ukraine also thin out an unhealthy proportion to their Russian population (Down from 20-something percent to now 17%).

While Russian want the province for actuality and for show, both EU/NATO and Ukraine gain from losing the province. Hence the conspiracy is for Ukraine to lose the province and Russia would call it a day with no NATO/EU and Ukraine interference

Hence there are no opposition for Ukraine losing the province. It's more believable than the 1 millions strong Ukraine defense force did not put up even a small fights.

 

[boomslang]

Russia struck out out of WEAKNESS, not strength. They can see themselves becoming marginalized and felt they needed to do something to make the world 'respect' it. Like when you ignore a little kid. Or like when the world ignores Russia and Chinas' fetal alcoholic syndrome-stricken illegitimate step child North Korea. They lash out with missile launches, like they just did recently. It's a cry out for attention, just like Russia.

 

[Superboy]

Crimea is a non issue. It used to be part of Russia and continues to be inhabited mainly by Russians. It is over with. East Ukraine is where it gets more interesting due to its size. Kharkiv, Donetsk, Lugansk all declared independent republics. The unity of the new BRICS faction has been tested, and all the BRICS countries are united as one. China will buy Russian natural resources. The EU only has about a third of China's population.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

What is the price that is willing to be paid for reunification of one's own country?

Russia would have gone into a state of total war, to reunify with Crimea.

Economic sanctions are nothing in comparison. Loosing diplomatic influence in Eastern Europe is nothing in comparison.

 

[Yzd Khalifa]

What is the price that is willing to be paid for reunification of one's own country?

Russia would have gone into a state of total war, to reunify with Crimea.

Economic sanctions are nothing in comparison. Loosing diplomatic influence in Eastern Europe is nothing in comparison.

I don't think Crimea worths it tbqh.

Anyway, I wish the same happens to the RoC.

 

[Superboy]

Compared to the Crimean War which killed over half a million people, only 3 people including 2 Ukrainians died in the reunification of Crimea with Russia. Nearly 1,000 people died in the Falklands War. IMO Russia got back Crimea with minimal casualties on both sides, which should be applauded.

Crimean War - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Falklands War - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Seeing as how Ukrainian and Russian are almost the same language, sort of like between Danish and Norwegian and closer than between Swedish and Norwegian, the Ukrainian government will eventually come to friendly terms with Russia. Maybe Ukraine would join the EU, but no way it would ever join NATO.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

I don't think Crimea worths it tbqh.

Anyway, I wish the same happens to the RoC.

The Republic of China is technically still trying to "reclaim" the Mainland.

Both sides believe they are the rightful government of all China.

As a result, the ROC never claims to be a separate country, so it's a bit different from the Crimea scenario.

Diplomatically it will be easier, since no country (including the ROC itself) considers them to be a separate country, and neither does the UN or international law. Militarily, it might be harder simply due to geography.

 

[Superboy]

Russians are not the big bad people portrayed by US media. See, they are giving the obsolete warships they took at Crimea back to Ukraine.

http://en.ria.ru/military_news/2014...of-First-Warship-Back-to-Ukraine--Source.html

 

[Superboy]

The annexation have been heavily compared to the Russo-Georgia War in 2008 when Russia similarly annexed South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia, However, the main different is, Georgia, although 10 times smaller and less capable militarily, picked up a fight, the Ukrainian did not.

Russia never annexed Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

 

[senheiser]

Russian officially annexed Crimea as part of the Russia Federation on the 16th March 2014.

On this forum, people keep refer this to as a Russian Victory, saying it the triumph of Putin over EU or even NATO, but was it really so? This article is to investigate what is gain and lose by the three side allegedly involved (Russia, Ukraine and EU/NATO) in this political saga.

Russia

Before the annexation, Russia enjoy a bilateral trading and good relation between Baltics states (Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia) to Far East independent State (Moldova and Transnistria) and of course Ukraine itself.

However, since the 2014 annexation, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, as part of NATO, have increase support with the US and NATO Troop and increased trade within EU and decreased trade against Russia as part of EU Sanction toward Russia. Moldova have requested EU/NATO membership, with EU action plan in place since 2011 and the next round of talk between EU/Moldova is due to hold in 28 April. Transnistria request an official integration of Russia Federation followed Crimea annexation.

Ukraine have purposed stop bilateral trade until Russia troop vacate Crimea, plans for Ukraine to join EU/NATO have been established since 2008 and EU Association agreement is signed by Ukraine on 21 March 2014.

Ukraine have been opposing from joining NATO as recent as February in 2014. With an 26% of Ukraine sees NATO is more a threat then the Russian Federation. However, since the annexation, move have been established for Ukraine to join NATO and EU with the next round of talk expected to move through action plans.

Overall Russian Gain

-Crimea Province
-Transnistria (Breakaway province from Moldova)

Overall Russian Lose

-Baltic States move away from Russia
-Moldova move away from Russia and closer to EU/NATO
-Ukraine move away from Russia and closer to EU/NATO

-except of the fact that all these countries wanted to join the EU before and being closer to Europe before

EU/NATO

EU/NATO have established at the Baltics and Romania as their boundary. With Eastern European country Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova as buffer between Russia and EU/NATO Influence.

After the annexation, Belarus remain unchanged to Russia, while Ukraine and Moldova both move toward EU/NATO. Which open a direct border to Russia. Meanwhile strengthening the relation of former Soviet state in EU/NATO (Baltic States, Croatia, Poland, Hungary and Romania) And also strengthening their position in Far East Europe (Georgia and Ukraine) both of which is more closer to joining EU/NATO then before.

Overall EU/NATO Gain

-Moldova applied to join EU/NATO
-Ukraine (Minus Crimea) applied to join EU/NATO
-Strengthening of EU/NATO states in former Soviet Union
-Strengthening of Far East European states.
-Opening Direct border to Russia (Given both Moldova and Ukraine successfully joining EU/NATO)

Overall EU/NATO Lose

-Nil (No territories change)

-moldova and now ukraine cant join nato, youre not allowed to join this organisation if you have border dispute. If they would join , nato would actually according to their own treaty to attack the break away independent republics in georgia, modovia and the crimean peninsula fighting the russians.
If they refuse this and still go ahead making some special exception it would be a violation of their treaty, this making nato even more obsolete it would then become obvious they wouldnt do anything if russia would do the same in the baltics.

- America and britain guaranteed the territorial integrity of ukraine for giving up their nukes, so what does it tell you who lost his credibility in dealing first of all nuclear states like iran and north korea and with american alliances and guarantees to be protected?
America lost the most because now obama is strong while hes in europe but in asia people are watching it and dont count on american guarantees. This will give china an advantage for asia countries to except chinese regional hegemony while america looks like a clown in asia, no one cares about them there where 21 century will be decided and not in aging europe. China is very hungry right now seeing how less the US has done for the crimean grab they can learn how the US would react if they would try similar things in japan and taiwan.

If some here is the winner than its china

 

[Mighty Caty]

Russia struck out out of WEAKNESS, not strength. They can see themselves becoming marginalized and felt they needed to do something to make the world 'respect' it. Like when you ignore a little kid. Or like when the world ignores Russia and Chinas' fetal alcoholic syndrome-stricken illegitimate step child North Korea. They lash out with missile launches, like they just did recently. It's a cry out for attention, just like Russia.

I would say I have not see anything like that rash on the account of both foreign relation and economic decision made by Russia.

I would understand the problem with Georgia, but to let go with Ukraine like that? That's almost unheard of.

Ukraine is a land border with Russia, any form of retribution would directly resulted to opening a land border with EU and NATO, I don't ever believe this is what Russia wanted.

 

[Superboy]

Actually, the date of reunification was March 21, not March 16.

 

[Mighty Caty]

What is the price that is willing to be paid for reunification of one's own country?

Russia would have gone into a state of total war, to reunify with Crimea.

Economic sanctions are nothing in comparison. Loosing diplomatic influence in Eastern Europe is nothing in comparison.

as I said, there will not be any way, shape or form of war with Russia.

Ukraine is not a small country, even Georgia put up a tiny fight, it's totally unreasonable for Ukraine to do nothing. That would concluded some kind of deal under the table between Ukraine and Russia. I think that's a predicted move.

Crimea is a non issue. It used to be part of Russia and continues to be inhabited mainly by Russians. It is over with. East Ukraine is where it gets more interesting due to its size. Kharkiv, Donetsk, Lugansk all declared independent republics. The unity of the new BRICS faction has been tested, and all the BRICS countries are united as one. China will buy Russian natural resources. The EU only has about a third of China's population.

Ukraine is NOT Used to be Russia, if you have to count the timeline, Ukraine used to belong to Poland a long time before it become part of Russian Empire in 1721.

I don't think Crimea worths it tbqh.

Anyway, I wish the same happens to the RoC.

It's not about worth it or not, but rather how the Russia would want this to happened. By annexing Crimea, they would most definitely lose Ukraine forever, unless a total armed invasion into the former second biggest satellite sate in Soviet era, which would be a lot more bloody than Chechen, Afghanistan and Georgia combine.

I don't think this is a good move by Russian Diplomat. Crimea gave Russia a bargaining power to reign Ukraine, now that's gone. And they are most probably not going to ever come back.

 

[Superboy]

as I said, there will not be any way, shape or form of war with Russia.

Ukraine is not a small country, even Georgia put up a tiny fight, it's totally unreasonable for Ukraine to do nothing. That would concluded some kind of deal under the table between Ukraine and Russia. I think that's a predicted move.



Ukraine is NOT Used to be Russia, if you have to count the timeline, Ukraine used to belong to Poland a long time before it become part of Russian Empire in 1721.

Ukraine is a small country. Only some 576,000 square kilometers. Ukrainians soldiers would have been crazy to fight completely surrounded by Russians. The only outcome would have been death for nothing.

 

[Mighty Caty]

The Republic of China is technically still trying to "reclaim" the Mainland.

Both sides believe they are the rightful government of all China.

As a result, the ROC never claims to be a separate country, so it's a bit different from the Crimea scenario.

Diplomatically it will be easier, since no country (including the ROC itself) considers them to be a separate country, and neither does the UN or international law. Militarily, it might be harder simply due to geography.

Please do not go off topic, this is about Ukraine and Russia, not about China and RoC, you are a think tank, you should know better

Russians are not the big bad people portrayed by US media. See, they are giving the obsolete warships they took at Crimea back to Ukraine.

Russia Begins Transfer of First Warship Back to Ukraine – Source | Defense | RIA Novosti

That's because they are not them to begin with.

When a person deflected to another country via ship and jet, they are require to return those jet/ship via a third country.

You annexed a part of someone else country does not equal to their liquid asset all belong to you now. That's part of repatriation processes. The Russia is acting according to the international law, they are not acting on mercy.

Had they not done that, then they are not only just a bad guy, but they also broke the international law

Russia never annexed Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

tell that to Georgian