Will war break out?
Recently South China Sea rages again, Vietnam saw America acting in Asia, trying to use American power to force China remove 981. However, what the Vietnamese is unclear is that under present international situation China must control SCS, the Vietnam’s provocations only encounter more counterpunch. So, we see friction between China and Vietnam become intense.
As we know, the Vietnam populist has went out of control, to respond Southern Vietnam riot, China reacted strongly, the Ministry of foreign affairs, and the Ministry of public security, the Ministry of Commerce all pressed on Vietnam. The working on oil rig will continue till finish.
During the riot, the Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyễn Tấn Dũng played the role of adding fuel to the flames. As prime minister, he was simply called public demonstrate, which resulted populist and anti statism aroused, and then crazy looting.
Now not only Vietnam international reputation damaged, also the party struggle within Vietnam communist hotted, the populist and anti statism became a back fire to Viet Cong body.
There is the southern and the northern part within Vietnam Communist Party according to its geographic division, the southern led by Nguyễn Tấn Dũng, pro US; while the northern Nguyễn Phú Trọng and Trng Tn Sang, relatively pro China. The Southern, due to last several year’s better development of southern economy, is relatively stronger who led provocation against China after 2010, however, such strength of the south weakened as the southern economy weakened in the last 2-3 years. This time, led by Prime Minister Dung, the south try to use populist and anti statism to hit the north, but the results was out of the south control, not China reacted strongly, populist and anti statism turned back to fire to the government and Communist Party body. That is why Dung hurried up and called for a rational, to combat vandalism burning etc. But in any case, the internal rift in Vietnam Communist Party is obvious and serious, and therefore some Vietnam official may fall.
China showed unusual tough this time, not only multi department jointed issued a warning on Vietnam, the high official from military recently visited Laos, Kampuchea, Burma, Bangladesh and other countries, especially emphasized that China is Laos’ good friends, stabilized countries in Southeast Asia. At the same time, Sino Japanese relations sees some relaxation, all point that China will be tougher to Vietnam.
China has begun a large scale evacuation from Vietnam, if no unexpected events occur, China will take actions when the evacuation is completed. At the same time, Vietnamese Prime Minister is going to visit Philippines and talk to cope with China together. This is really save feather gather courage, what Philippines can work out? China has ways to deal with Philippines. While Vietnam is under Chinese nose, Vietnam will suffer apparently himself if conflict worsened. Now Vietnam’s attitude has indicated that the friction between China and Vietnam will aggravate. China now first carries out large evacuation, suspends and cancelled some cooperation with Vietnam, what China will do next? outbreak of war?
From the North part it is basically unlikely war, because the North and Chinese agreed to cooperatively develop, the Vietnamese President Trng Tn Sang, during his visit to China, made some bilatural agreement. However, the southern part is Anti China, so the game among Vietnam internal parties results in Vietnam policy plays an important role, if the north suffered domestic populist and southern pressure, it can not be ruled out there might be risk behavior which lead to military conflict. However, such possibility is very low.
But, another element may lead the Sino Vietnamese war, if the Vietnam populist fermented, even with outside power involved, the Vietnamese authorities can not control the situation, in order to pass out his internal contradiction, Vietnam may rush into danger, so may a military conflict between China and Vietnam. Before to judge this will happen or not, attention should be paid to Vietnam internal side, to see whether it will outbreak large-scale demonstrations, or social order is under control.
When the above two conditions are met, Vietnam may take adventure. If Vietnam ventured, the results will be very miserable, because of the strength and determination China has now, China will use full force and will not give the other opportunity to rebound.
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