Will the 'China Miracle' Continue?

[Aegis DDG]

If Chinese citizens has more consumer spending power then that would help sustain growth. But that would require currency valuation which would affect exports.

 

[DoTell]

Thanks again! Does the government decide which the best colleges are, and therefore which college gets to pick students first? If the government does decide, is there usually agreement between what the government decides and the public's perception of which colleges are best?

Yes the government used to assign special certain status to certain selected universities. Such schools are called "Zhong Dian" school. But that practice has stopped long time ago. One main reason is that everyone knows about the quality of each major university. There is no point for the government to do anything to help universities recruiting students.

 

[tranquilium]

That's a very simplistic (and probably too optimistic) way of looking at the future. My thoughts on this:

1. The writer is forgetting that China already had its long spell of bullish run just like Japan, Singapore and South Korea. Even after that today China's per capita GDP is still at 21% of USA, BECAUSE the USA economy itself has grown tremendously after WW2. The USA of today is not the same as the USA of 1951, the gap of 79% per capita between USA and Japan, Singapore, South Korea were before they had their economic bull run, but in case of China this gap exist after 35 years of economic bull run by China. If you take USA as the goalpost, then the goalpost has shifted many miles during this period, so the logic presented by the writer may not work further.

2. There is a difference between Japan, Singapore, South Korea and China, the difference is in the size of the population. Though large population has its own advantage, but it is far more difficult to ensure a wholesome growth in terms of per capita for such a large population. Japan, Singapore and South Korea had the advantage of being smaller and nimble, China doesn't. China has achieved its rapid growth by utilizing its upper segments of the population, that's why China has very high income disparity today. Going forward, an inclusive growth for China's entire population will be a long and tedious process, not a rapid one.

3. Technology is far more mobile today compared to 1951 or 1967, largely because of the new policies of outsourcing. Japan, Singapore and South Korea enjoyed far less competition in their days of bull run, compared to today and 20 years in future. Today many countries are into the race of inviting FDI and absorbing the technology coming with such FDIs. So, the advantage that Japan, Singapore, South Korea and even China had some years ago won't going to continue in the future also.

Hence, I believe another 20 years of bull run is not left in Chinese economy, they had their run, now it is time to consolidate.

The "bullrush" and consolidation are alternative sequences of economic development for all countries. This cycle can happen for multiple times. In PRC history, the first bullrush period will be between 1950 to 1961, then consolidation between 1962 to 1979. The second bullrush period will be 1980 to 1992, followed by consolidation between 1993 to 2000. The bullrush afterwards are essentially 2001 to 2010 and now we are entering the consolidation phase again. Once the current consolidation is over, we may enter the next cycle of rapid development.

 

[Genesis]

Ever since Xi came into power, the Chinese growth rate just keep going down.

Instead of working hard to bring it back up, Xi instead concentrated on getting rid of his political rivals LOL.

So the free trade zones? The new regulations on environmental control? Lessen control of courts by the CCP, further regulation of finance sector, allowing companies to go bankrupt rather than keep pumping money into it, less promotion based on GDP, rather a more rounded assessment, no more Hukou difference for city and rural, farmers can buy and sell land, no more one child policy and much much more.


What are those? At one point I thought you were objective, now, you are just like every other hater on here.

 

[William Hung]

So the free trade zones? The new regulations on environmental control? Lessen control of courts by the CCP, further regulation of finance sector, allowing companies to go bankrupt rather than keep pumping money into it, less promotion based on GDP, rather a more rounded assessment, no more Hukou difference for city and rural, farmers can buy and sell land, no more one child policy and much much more.


What are those? At one point I thought you were objective, now, you are just like every other hater on here.

My post was referring to the economic growth rate.

If you can provide data to show that the growth rate has actually increased since Xi came into power, then I will admit that I was wrong.

If not, then I stand by my previous post.

 

[Genesis]

My post was referring to the economic growth rate.

If you can provide data to show that the growth rate has actually increased since Xi came into power, then I will admit that I was wrong.

If not, then I stand by my previous post.

lol, this post really says it all doesn't it.

 

[AgentOrange]

lol, this post really says it all doesn't it.

He's a troll. Not a particularly smart one either. Best to ignore him since he's incapable of intelligent debate.

 

[William Hung]

lol, this post really says it all doesn't it.

Still can't refute the fact that China's growth rate went down ever since Xi took power?

 

[Genesis]

Still can't refute the fact that China's growth rate went down ever since Xi took power?

ok, you win, congratulations.

oh wait, China 2012 GDP 8.229, 2013, 9.24, 2014, 10335.

World GDP Ranking 2014 | Data and Charts - knoema.com

on the whole, we did grow more, but that's not the point. As many would agree, Xi has been doing a good job since coming in, and if all you want to talk is some BS one dimensional crap then you are welcome to do so, but you are going to have to do it alone.

 

[William Hung]

ok, you win, congratulations.

oh wait, China 2012 GDP 8.229, 2013, 9.24, 2014, 10335.

World GDP Ranking 2014 | Data and Charts - knoema.com

on the whole, we did grow more, but that's not the point. As many would agree, Xi has been doing a good job since coming in, and if all you want to talk is some BS one dimensional crap then you are welcome to do so, but you are going to have to do it alone.

Brother gen,

I was talking about the growth rate, and as far as I know, ever since Xi became GS and prez from 2012-2013, the growth rate went down.

And it's the holiday season. I'm just enjoying myself outside in the breeze relaxing. Don't get too uptight just because of Xi. He is dispensable.

 

[AgentOrange]

ok, you win, congratulations.

oh wait, China 2012 GDP 8.229, 2013, 9.24, 2014, 10335.

World GDP Ranking 2014 | Data and Charts - knoema.com

on the whole, we did grow more, but that's not the point. As many would agree, Xi has been doing a good job since coming in, and if all you want to talk is some BS one dimensional crap then you are welcome to do so, but you are going to have to do it alone.

It's so weird. I don't see Vietnam on that list at all. Surely that Sub-Mekong superpower would be in the top 20 at least? No?

 

[Genesis]

Brother gen,

I was talking about the growth rate, and as far as I know, ever since Xi became GS and prez from 2012-2013, the growth rate went down.

And it's the holiday season. I'm just enjoying myself outside in the breeze relaxing. Don't get too uptight just because of Xi. He is dispensable.

you think anybody gives a damn about Xi, the truth is, he can be any number of people and it wouldn't make one difference.

Let's not pretend what this is, you are inferring Chinese economy is going down the crapper, I be fine with this if you brought more to the table than growth rates.

If all you wanted was to state something, why add the lol at the end, what's so funny about it, if you didn't want to say Chinese economy is done.


Also if we are going by technicalities, you didn't say it had to go back up, you just said he didn't work hard on improving economic growth and I said he did, now tell me the things I listed didn't count as that.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

China will be first country to build buiding on Moon that is 100%

 

[tranquilium]

My post was referring to the economic growth rate.

If you can provide data to show that the growth rate has actually increased since Xi came into power, then I will admit that I was wrong.

If not, then I stand by my previous post.

Sure:
2011 Chinese GDP 7,324,952 million USD
2012 Chinese GDP 8,229,229 million USD growth from the previous year: 904,277 million USD (Xi took office in November 2012)
2013 Chinese GDP 9,184,997 million USD growth from the previous year: 955,768 million USD

In comparison
2008 US GDP 14,718,600 million USD
2009 US GDP 14,418,700 million USD growth from the previous year: -299,900 million USD (Barack Obama took office in January 2009)
2010 US GDP 14,964,400 million USD growth from the previous year: 545,700 million USD
2011 US GDP 15,517,900 million USD growth from the previous year: 553,500 million USD
2012 US GDP 16,163,200 million USD growth from the previous year: 645,300 million USD
2013 US GDP 16,768,100 million USD growth from the previous year: 604,900 million USD

China is growing faster in absolute terms and in accelerating amount.

Why would you use percentage growth as measurement? Percentage is affected by two measure, the absolute growth and the base amount, as your base amount gets larger, your percentage naturally goes down. This is why small economies have double digit growth all the time yet nobody bats an eye at them.

 

[ahojunk]

Looking at the past 35 years, it would be foolish to bet against China.