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Will the army really quit meddling in politics for good?

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Will the army really quit meddling in politics for good?

Who will intervene with the intervenors? That surely is to ask for too much.

Abdul Moiz Jaferii
October 28, 2022


The best historical perspectives offered in these pages about Pakistan read simultaneously as current affairs commentary. We are a nation that cycles through the exact same mistakes, made by the exact same perpetrators, frustrating the exact same set of the public.

Of late, the army seems to be bent on persuading anyone who would care to listen that they have given up on meddling in politics. The incumbent DG ISPR has made it a point to reiterate this on many an occasion in recent weeks. The same assertion was also repeated by the now confirmed (even by our standards) to-be-outgoing chief of army staff, who again stressed that the army (let’s call it the establishment from here on) will stay out of politics.

Never again, again


For those of you who may have trouble recalling, this is the chief of a government department, who on paper reports to the secretary of defence, who in turn reports to the minister of defence, who reports to the prime minister and serves at their pleasure.

It is the PM’s office that the established interference is generally directed towards, and the piece of paper, which would confirm the hierarchy of authority listed above, is currently being used to make a paper airplane by a child somewhere in a cantonment.

Without there being consequences or public accountability for the establishment having come into politics in the past, which is almost always very recently and rather disastrously, these are little more than promises of forbearance by someone showing signs of compulsion. Just as one suffering from an addiction promises to reform when faced with the guilt of realisation, so does our establishment swear never again.

Read more: Pakistan’s hybrid regime is coming to an end. What next?

And to prove they are serious this time, Faisal Vawda addresses a press conference, which is so confusing that the people, whose boot he used to bring onto TV shows as a talisman, have to turn up to clarify further.

In answering questions regarding political interference, the DG ISPR challenges anyone to nominate any instance of his institution meddling in the electoral process.

The challenge came with one caveat — that you had to pick an event after the March 2021 Senate elections. In case you are confused, these aren’t the Senate polls when Hasil Bizenjo accused the then DG ISI of direct meddling. They’re the ones where Musadik Malik and Mustafa Nawaz Khokhar found spy cameras in the Senate voting booths.

The relapse

Yet whenever the sun begins to set, at times even on that same day whose morning induced the promise, the want kicks in and washes away the regret.

Imran Khan stands disqualified by an election commission that couldn’t see anything wrong with the 2018 general elections. The same institution that discovered impropriety only after a public by-election fiasco in Daska, when it is widely rumoured that the then prime minister Imran had to use cruder methods of fixing than the assistance of the usual suspects.

He is disqualified due to the gifts taken and left undeclared.

This in a country where former army chiefs live abroad with unaccountable wealth. Where Lt Gen (R) Asim Saleem Bajwa explains an empire through screenshots of a Word document and the then prime minister Imran says he is satisfied.

When Lt Gen (R) Bajwa shows willingness to be held to account, it’s as a guest on the phone in Shahzeb Khanzada’s show and only up to the point of basic questions.

His declaration of assets only ever came when he was chosen as a special assistant to the prime minister. Assets that include a Land Cruiser he claims to have bought for Rs 3 million. This is back when Imran was happy with the establishment, to the point where he felt that not only should the premier be monitored by the agencies, but that if you are unwilling to subject yourself to such monitoring, it is because you must have something to hide.

Powering through

Earlier, Imran supported and later championed calls for Nawaz to be taken out of the political race for similar allegations of unethical conduct — for not declaring an unreceived salary, which could perhaps have led to the discovery of several companies in the Gulf that belonged to his family and for the wealth of which his family cannot account.

When Imran was leading these protests to help the establishment expose the Sharifs’ moral compass as a legal shortcoming, the then PM Sharif confronted the ISI chief in front of the army chief with impregnable evidence of the former’s political interference in support of the dharna camped out in front of Parliament House.

All it resulted in was the then COAS Raheel Sharif chiding the chief of ISI and making him promise to stop. The latter continued to serve, retired with full benefits and was recently in the news again because he addressed a public gathering where he explained why he helped make a third force in politics.

Earlier, when the US found Osama bin Laden nested in Abbotabad a mile away from the Kakul military academy, the then ISI chief Shuja Pasha addressed a joint session of Parliament to explain the intelligence failure and security lapse.

He told the lawmakers he was even ready to resign. The COAS said he was willing to be held accountable ‘even to Parliament’. Both eventually retired, with nary a resignation between them. Pasha is credited by Pervez Elahi with helping Imran Khan put together electable candidates for the 2013 elections. Elahi claims Pasha was stealing his candidates and when confronted, he forgot his position over the course of the conversation and tried to poach the Elahis themselves for Khan’s camp.

The real question

In real life, people do not usually quit problematic, repeated behaviour out of guilt. It is not the sudden realisation that they are lacking in the care of a young child or are bullying a family member that suddenly wills them to break their stupor. That is the stuff of Bollywood movies.

In reality, they mostly quit when they can no longer afford to purchase the substance of choice and when alternatives are impossible to source. They quit when their family members find courage to challenge them even in the house they have so often spoilt the atmosphere of. They quit when their family finds means to isolate them when they are disruptive. Or they quit when their children grow up and can no longer be pushed around.

Alternatively, they sometimes correct the error of their ways when their family stages an intervention. When all the irrationally shouted at children and the cruelly neglected partners band together and stand firm on enough being enough. But then that brings us to our tragic dilemma.

Who will intervene with the intervenors?

That surely is to ask for too much.

So then the only question left is: when will the children grow up?

The author is a lawyer and political analyst.


 
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Impossible.... They will always want to maintain their rule of terror and perpetual enslavement!
 
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We will know for sure when EVM are used for polling, and they stop our kids and elders kidnapping and threatening phone calls. GHQ should be moved out of Islamabad all together.
 
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My own take, it will take time and "sustained" focus of not only the incumbent but a couple more future chiefs to pull the army away. However, this is easier said than done given the constant "bohran" that visit our country. We also need personalities in Pindi who understand the harm politicking has done to the army.

There is no "flip of a switch" detachment of the army from the affairs of the political kind.

We have to be realists about how this will pan out and on the cautionary side for the military, there should be constant reminders (press, social media, op-eds) to the incumbent and his staff that politics is not their domain.
 
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My own take, it will take time and "sustained" focus of not only the incumbent but a couple more future chiefs to pull the army away. However, this is easier said than done given the constant "bohran" that visit our country. We also need personalities in Pindi who understand the harm politicking has done to the army.

There is no "flip of a switch" detachment of the army from the affairs of the political kind.

We have to be realists about how this will pan out and on the cautionary side for the military, there should be constant reminders (press, social media, op-eds) to the incumbent and his staff that politics is not their domain.

Well said, but I would simply summarize here, if I may: It won't, because it can't.
 
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"It can't" could have been said about Turkey too (whose military was even more entrenched than Pakistan's). There have been spells where the army has stayed away only to be dragged in by the mufti but even then there was no overt political interference by the army. Case in point, the tenures of Gens Janjua, Kakar and Karamat.
 
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"It can't" could have been said about Turkey too (whose military was even more entrenched than Pakistan's). There have been spells where the army has stayed away only to be dragged in by the mufti but even then there was no overt political interference by the army. Case in point, the tenures of Gens Janjua, Kakar and Karamat.

Yes, but Pakistan is not Turkey. It is not any other country either.
 
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It'll happen eventually.

Eventually, yes, that I can agree with, as long as it does not mean in the foreseeable future, of which there is simply no chance due to Pakistan's unique system in place as it has evolved since its creation by General Zia.
 
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Separation requires a sharp tool.

Guillotines would do well!
 
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Pay attention to this opinion. I post it so people don't think I am simply toeing the line. As hubristic as Gen Bajwa was, he always found willing partners that enabled him. So the fault is certainly with him but those who went along and abetted the journey cannot escape their own personal responsibility in this mess, no matter how loud or hard their SM/propaganda machinery works.

OPINION: THE MYTH OF INDISPENSABILITY

Tariq Bashir Published January 15, 2023 Updated 3 days ago



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Former army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa | Reuters

Former army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa | Reuters
"The government had adopted a posture of complete neutrality. This created a peculiar situation and encouraged fissiparous and divisive tendencies. It was a strange sort of a GHQ, which either by design or default, allowed political argument to develop in a political vacuum created by its own absence, sort of a strategic withdrawal from the political scene.”
One could be forgiven for thinking that the passage above is a befitting commentary on the current political scenario, where the catchphrase being used in political discourse for the last seven to eight months has predominantly been the word ‘neutral.’
In actual fact (with the words “martial law administration” substituted with the abbreviation GHQ), the statement above has been taken from Brig (retd) A.R. Siddiqi’s book East Pakistan The End Game: An Onlooker’s Journal 1969-1971.
Though an excruciatingly painful account of the last seven months of united Pakistan and Gen Yahya Khan’s hubristic, supremely arrogant, ill-conceived and fateful decision to unleash Operation Searchlight on Dhaka on March 25, 1971, the book’s theme is all the more evocative in today’s context.
That the military mindset and approach which looms large on our politics has not changed an iota for at least half a century, is quite a disturbing thought. This begs a few pertinent questions: have our politicians been able to strengthen democratic institutions at the expense of the army’s overreach? Does a sizeable majority of the budding as well as old school politicians perceive a degree of success in politics without the endorsement — tacit or blatant — of the military, impossible?
The tactics used by Pakistan’s army generals to cling on to power are regularly rinsed and repeated. Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa’s recently completed tenure has some stark similarities to an earlier ignominious period in the country’s history
Historically speaking, in Pakistan, public pronouncements by the army of stepping back from the maelstrom of politics have been a recurring event, and have only happened, cynics would argue, to regroup and re-enter the arena with a new game plan, but with the same underlying theme — how to ‘cleanse’ the system and create a conducive atmosphere to hold free and fair elections.
Gen (retd) Qamar Javed Bajwa’s wish to extract another extension, on the pretext of taking the country towards economic and political stability from the turbulence which he and his coterie of generals had meticulously incubated themselves to deliver such an outcome, is no secret.
If one were to rationally and realistically analyse the current change of heart, the formation commanders’ decision to stay neutral in the political process has close similarities with the chatter amongst senior officers in the General Headquarters (GHQ) in 1969, focusing on extricating the army from the political process and staying, you guessed it, neutral.
For instance, according to the book, Gen S.G.M Peerzada — the Principal Staff Officer (PSO) to Yahya — like a dutiful subordinate, while making allowances for Yahya being attracted to the allure of politics and carving a political role for himself, had on a few occasions conveyed to Brig Siddiqi Yahya’s wish to hold free and fair elections.
The book analyses Yahya’s utterances by reading between the lines and, more crucially, whether the general had contributed substantially towards the turmoil that had brewed from 1969 onwards. One thing which is established beyond a shadow of doubt is that, with the passage of time, his absolute hold on power was enough for him to start toying with the idea of his own utility and indispensability for the system. The exact same can be said for Gen Bajwa.
The Bajwa Doctrine
Unlike 1971, Gen Bajwa derived his confidence to manipulate the system to favour the army chief more from the oversized ability of men under his command to work the system than taking advantage of the naturally escalating political crisis.
In both case studies, the audacity and impunity, the contemptuous disdain for politicians and the faux belief in being the best informed organisation in the country, sowed the seeds of invincibility qua the political system.
For perspective, it may be recalled that it was Gen Bajwa’s much touted ‘doctrine’ which became the cornerstone of his efforts to dominate the system, right from his appointment in 2016, at the expense of economic and political stability, which gradually but firmly put him in pole position to pitch his demand for another extension, because of his experience of running (read ruining) the country.
While cruising on, he never experienced any dearth of politicians to become his foot soldiers, in order to successfully execute the so-called doctrine: Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) from 2018 and later the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) from April 2022 till now and counting.
Echoes of Yahya Khan’s Approach
With his overgrown, arched eyebrows and an ever-incandescent face, Yahya never held back any punches when it came to holding politicians in contempt, calling them “a pack of jokers.”
Similarities in the military mindset are unmistakable: Yahya asks Abdul Hamid Khan Bhashani to speak to Mujibur Rehman because, “I am a simple soldier, what can I do about it?” Amidst peals of laughter during his address to his Baloch Regiment buddies, he had lampooned Bhashani by mimicking his Bengali accent, saying, “‘Shir’, please don’t transfer power to ‘Muzib’, he is a traitor.”
Gen Bajwa convincing Khan of his organisation’s neutrality but, at the same time, not relenting on his behind-the-scenes manoeuvring and arm-twisting to get another extension using a law that was passed under his personal supervision, has echoes of Yahya’s dual-faced approach.
Yahya had also expressed his reluctance to “throw the country to the wolves” in the aforementioned reunion and had wished to rule the country for another 14 years and hand over power to the commander who was next in line when he had finished ruling.
This might sound like an astonishing remark in today’s context, but the fact of the matter is that the only substantial change since 1971 is that the commanders’ huddle has only decided against imposing direct martial law; its hitherto untried variations and backstage strong-arm manipulations carry on regardless, and with renewed vigour.
A Looming Disaster
One could safely argue that the problem lies in the army sniffing around for readily available civilian allies to perpetuate their hold on power and fast-shrinking national resources, allies that get attracted by the lure of a few veritable political crumbs.
How far the system is rigged can be gauged from the fact that otherwise astute and intelligent politicians, such as Malik Ahmad Khan, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi and Moonis Elahi, and seasoned anchors such as Javed Chaudhry, have jumped to Gen Bajwa’s defence, ostensibly to be on the right side of the military establishment, in order to stay relevant for them in the future.
One element which was perhaps absent in 1971 but which may be the deciding factor concerning the future of Pakistan, is the pitiable state of the economy in 2023. The familiar cycle has been continuing for a few decades but, currently, perhaps for the first time in history, it is looking akin to a motor car running with only a few drops of engine oil left.
How long will it take for the vehicle to overheat and stall?
Tariq Bashir is a Lahore-based lawyer.
He tweets @Tariq_Bashir and can be reached at tariqbashir16@gmail.com
 
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One could safely argue that the problem lies in the army sniffing around for readily available civilian allies to perpetuate their hold on power and fast-shrinking national resources, allies that get attracted by the lure of a few veritable political crumbs.

Yes, that must be the root cause. And if sniffing does not work or is insufficient, the Army has far more potent tools to ensure suitably compliant politicians are found, or created. Clearly, we must blame the politicians only. :D
 
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