Since much has been talked about how can Modi become the PM, Here is an assessment about how NDA can come to power & how can Modi become the PM.
THIS IS BASED TOTALLY ON MY ASSUMPTION, MAY OR MAY NOT COME OUT TRUE
Suppose, BJP declare Modi PM candidate & the most opposed party to this decision, JD(U) walks out of NDA.
now NDA parties are - BJP, SS, JMM, SAD, HJC,RPI (Athawale), TRS, YSR Congress(oppose to congress, can join NDA), AGP
state wise seat breakup of seats which NDA can get:
name of State - LS Seats which NDA can win(seats won in last election of 2009)
Andhra Pradesh - 10 (2 in last, due to YSR & TRS)
Assam - 6 (5 in last)
Bihar - 15 (12 in last)
CG - 8 (10 in last, very difficult to repeat that)
Goa - 2 (1 in last, taken into acc. recent state elections)
Gujarat - 22 (15 in last, Modi hails from Gujarat)
Haryana - 3 (1 in last)
HP - 2 (3 in last)
Jharkhand - 8 (10 in last)
Karnataka - 15 (19 in last, some anti-incumbency)
Kerala - 1 (0 in last, almost won 1 in 2009 elections)
MP - 20 (16 in last, BJP stronghold)
Maharashtra - 26-30 (20 in last, anti-incumbency both at center & states)
Punjab - 8 (5 in last, taking into account recent state elections)
Rajasthan - 15 (4 in last, anti incumbency at state)
UP - 20 (10 in last, anti incumbency of center)
Uthrakhand - 2 (0 in last)
WB - 2 (1 in last)
A&N - 1 (1 in last)
Dadra & Nagar Haveli - 1 (1 in last)
Daman & Diu - 1 (1 in last)
Delhi - 4 (0 in last, anti-incumbency wave)
note: those states which have no NDA presence are not included here
The list have been made on following assumptions:
1.The mood of the nation is anti-UPA.
2.Taking into account last general election & recent state elections performance + performance of govt. of states.
Total comes out to be around 196 seats, with BJP around 160 seats, this means NDA coming out as the largest block, BSP, AIADMK, TMC, TDP will have no problem joining NDA as they were earlier NDA partners which means around 60-70 seats more, with some independents NDA can achieve majority of 272.
so i am of the opinion that BJP have to take the risk of MODI & as they say "risk me hi barkat hai", so just wait & watch!
source: wikipedia.
just playing with numbers.....