FuturePAF
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If Americans/NATO with its vast resources, military might and diplomatic prowess couldn't untangle the Gordian Knot that is Afghanistan in two decades then India with its meagre resources stands no chance.
India can only act as a spoiler and destabilise Afghanistan, which I suspect is India's end goal as it bogs down Pakistan and diverts pressure away from Kashmir.
Beyond the dangers that lurk on the ground, which you laid out, there is a broader geopolitical reality that will check Indian expansionism. Who is to say Iran, China or Russia want Indian presence, a quad member, in Afghanistan?
The Iranian-backed Hazara Shia militias shot down ANA Mi-17 in Wardak a few months ago. Any equipment given to Kabul from India will face similar threat from Iranian-backed militias.
The Russians and Chinese similarly view Indian expansionism as inimical to their influence.
And it looks like the Indians just issued a statement on the risk of them getting kidnapped in Afghanistan. As can be expected with them stepping up their presence in Afghanistan.
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