Will India ever mount an operation to capture Dawood Ibrahim?

[JonAsad]

Pakistanis and their pride in their patronage of murderers, its a classic case of religion driving entire societies mad, but useful for dehumanising the pakistan issue in many eyes.

Pakistanis believe in terrorism, we believe in karma. And Karma is a b%tch!

If whole Pakistan believed in that youd be shitting in your pants right now- looking for a place to hide -
Feel lucky it is not like that- -

 

[notsuperstitious]

If whole Pakistan believed in that youd be shitting in your pants right now- looking for a place to hide -
Feel lucky it is not like that- -

Its a generalisation. The article is written by a pakistani. But a substantial no of people and certainly a majority on the forum do not find anything wrong in pakistani state openly sheltering mass murderers. Heck surveys showed a majority pakistanis thought OBL's death was a bad thing too. If that doesn't warrant generalisation, I dont know what does.

 

[JonAsad]

Its a generalisation. The article is written by a pakistani. But a substantial no of people and certainly a majority on the forum do not find anything wrong in pakistani state openly sheltering mass murderers. Heck surveys showed a majority pakistanis thought OBL's death was a bad thing too. If that doesn't warrant generalisation, I dont know what does.

Yeah surveys- i believe them-
Btw obl war on terror- and india - we have different perspectives like normal people have-
Doesnt mean all are Ok with terrorism-

Infact most of you take pride on TTP activities in Pakistan- claiming its backlash done and financed by RAW- generalize that-

 

[notsuperstitious]

Infact most of you take pride on TTP activities in Pakistan- claiming its backlash done and financed by RAW- generalize that-

If anyone's taunting like that, thats just because pakistan is so brazen and open with their terrorism addiction. However I've hardly ever seen anyone make such taunts, its normally the pakistanis making such claims WRT indian 156 consulates and Indians demanding proof.

But I agree as a generalisation Indians have a dehumanlised view of pakistani suffering the same as what pakistanis have of indias.

But open patronage of terrorism is a different matter and not comparable. Its difficult to glorify murder in India's cultural setting.

 

[That Guy]

I was saying if Indian agencies wanted to bump him off, it could be done by other mafia group, not in a filmy way. As long as there is enough cloud surrounding his death, PA will find cover not to start a war. Remember PA will start only to save face, nothing else. That can be taken care of, dont you think.
How about blown by a terror attack? TTP loves to claim such things whether they do or not.

So you're saying that India should resort to terrorism?

International justification ?????what are you going to tell them ,that we were hiding a terrorist and refused to hand over and hindustani came and killed him.

No, violation of sovereignty is a justification for military action. The PA doesn't have to even mention anything about Dawood, all they'll have to say is "India conducted military action in Pakistan territory" and no one could argue against Pakistan's justification.

 

[livingdead]

So you're saying that India should resort to terrorism?

I did not say should. I said, if India wanted to bump him off, there are means to do it without precipitating a war, like you implied. Obviously GoI does not think he is a threat enough or it is possible to carry out such operation.

 

[That Guy]

There are terrorists strikes happening in both the country and each of us blame the other! We do NOT start a war for that... Between who is going to assume ownership IF ever DI is killed? Why should India resort to OBL type of attack? Why not MOSSAD style of attack?

India will NOT do OBL type of attack with a nuclear power... But MOSSAD style attack can be done, but not to worry the political class does NOT have the balls!

If Pakistan starts a war, I am sorry to say that Pakistan will NOT have any International sympathy! All nations will condemn it! They seldom care about a man called Dawood!

I agree for the most part, but the fact remains that such actions would go noticed. India isn't the US and Israel, it doesn't have the same capabilities to mount such assaults inside Pakistan without the ISI getting a hint of it.

As for Pakistan not getting sympathy. It's not about getting sympathy, it's about legitimate justification. In fact, you've just proven my point, the international community won't care about a man called Dawood, they'll just see India as violating Pakistani territory using military action, and that's all Pakistan would need to condemn India.

 

[That Guy]

While right in theory, it wouldn't work that way. If India carried out a successful operation(hypothetically) and managed to get back into Indian territory, PA's options are limited. What could PA do? Go to a war with India? Not much chance of that. International justification, as seen by you, wouldn't exist. The world will see Pakistan defending an terrorist, going to war over him would be more than silly. What we might see is possibly localised operations at a time of Pakistan's choosing at the LoC, something which will again not go unanswered.

The risk here is not of Pakistan's reaction post the event, it is more of the chance of success of such an operation. Keep in mind that the Mumbai attack is seen as a similar violation of India's sovereignty. If that didn't provoke a war keeping in mind the carnage that had happened, it would be silly to think that action against one wanted individual would cause it.

There are some flaws I'd like to point out of your comment;

First you said;

What could PA do? Go to a war with India? Not much chance of that.

You're assuming this wouldn't happen, but considering the history of Pakistan and India, can you be sure about that? It's really a baseless assumption. Then again, we are talking hypothetical situations, so who knows.

Second;

International justification, as seen by you, wouldn't exist. The world will see Pakistan defending an terrorist, going to war over him would be more than silly.

You're assuming things without evidence again, Pakistan wouldn't even have to mention such things, all Pakistan would have to do is say that India conducted military action within Pakistan and that would be enough to gain international condemnation of India. Of course going to war over him would be silly, but PA WOULDN'T be going to war over him, they'd be going to war over India's violation of Pakistan's sovereignty. Pakistan couldn't care less about Dawood, you can kill him in the UAE like the Israelis did with that Hamas leader, but not within Pakistan.


Third;

What we might see is possibly localised operations at a time of Pakistan's choosing at the LoC, something which will again not go unanswered.

Perhaps, perhaps not. Kargil is called a war, even though it was very limited in what it was, so perhaps such an operation would also be called a war?


Fourth;

The risk here is not of Pakistan's reaction post the event, it is more of the chance of success of such an operation. Keep in mind that the Mumbai attack is seen as a similar violation of India's sovereignty. If that didn't provoke a war keeping in mind the carnage that had happened, it would be silly to think that action against one wanted individual would cause it.

In the case of Mumbai, it was a bunch of militants, there was no military soldier or intelligence officer that went into India to do those attacks. As such, India didn't (and still doesn't) have any real evidence of Pakistani military involvement.

What you're suggesting would directly involve Indian soldiers and intelligence officers on the front lines conducting these operations, so to say that these events are remotely similar is ridicules at best.

Besides, India didn't go to war, not because they didn't want to, but the government wasn't confident it would be worth the cost, or that the war would result in decisive Indian victory. As we've seen from the past, Pakistan Army rarely worries about such things.

 

[That Guy]

I did not say should. I said, if India wanted to bump him off, there are means to do it without precipitating a war, like you implied. Obviously GoI does not think he is a threat enough or it is possible to carry out such operation.

Do you really think that GoI would actually authorize such actions though?

 

[livingdead]

Do you really think that GoI would actually authorize such actions though?

no i dont think GoI will, it does not serve any purpose. Capturing him alive will be very beneficial though.
Another thing, he has got political connections(or had in the past at least), so it might not be convinient for govt to pursue him.

Generally speaking, I dont think GoI has no influence in pakistan. It does have some, and pakistani authorities know it. Its a proxy war.

 

[Bang Galore]

You're assuming this wouldn't happen, but considering the history of Pakistan and India, can you be sure about that? It's really a baseless assumption. Then again, we are talking hypothetical situations, so who knows.

Reasonably sure. If Pakistan doesn't go to war over Kashmir now, it would be logical to assume that the action in question would not precipitate a war.

You're assuming things without evidence again, Pakistan wouldn't even have to mention such things, all Pakistan would have to do is say that India conducted military action within Pakistan and that would be enough to gain international condemnation of India. Of course going to war over him would be silly, but PA WOULDN'T be going to war over him, they'd be going to war over India's violation of Pakistan's sovereignty. Pakistan couldn't care less about Dawood, you can kill him in the UAE like the Israelis did with that Hamas leader, but not within Pakistan.

I'm not assuming much, Pakistan has been shouting from the rooftops that this man isn't in their country. After OBL, that will just been seen as another case of Pakistani perfidy if he is found & taken out within Pakistan. No one will really line up to support Pakistan on this.

Perhaps, perhaps not. Kargil is called a war, even though it was very limited in what it was, so perhaps such an operation would also be called a war?

Kargil is not the type of limited tactical operation I was referring to. More the kind of incident that left 2 Indian soldiers dead or something similar. Anything larger will provoke a heavy response & Pakistan simply won't want that.

In the case of Mumbai, it was a bunch of militants, there was no military soldier or intelligence officer that went into India to do those attacks. As such, India didn't (and still doesn't) have any real evidence of Pakistani military involvement.

What you're suggesting would directly involve Indian soldiers and intelligence officers on the front lines conducting these operations, so to say that these events are remotely similar is ridicules at best.

Not a bad analogy, especially when you consider the number killed in those attacks versus the ones killed in a hypothetical attack like the one we are referring to. As far as state involvement goes, it is the GoI's position (after Abu Jundal's confession, adding to Headley's) that there was Pakistani state involvement in 26/11. This was articulated by the then Home Minister. The evidence satisfies the Indian government & in a scenario that were are talking about, that is all that should matter
.

. As we've seen from the past, Pakistan Army rarely worries about such things.

That might well be true but no one would argue that the PA is crazy as a whole.

 

[That Guy]

no i dont think GoI will, it does not serve any purpose. Capturing him alive will be very beneficial though.
Another thing, he has got political connections(or had in the past at least), so it might not be convinient for govt to pursue him.

Generally speaking, I dont think GoI has no influence in pakistan. It does have some, and pakistani authorities know it. Its a proxy war.

Proxy wars will always go on between these two, but targeting Dawood will not do GoI any good.

 

[That Guy]

Reasonably sure. If Pakistan doesn't go to war over Kashmir now, it would be logical to assume that the action in question would not precipitate a war.

I'm not assuming much, Pakistan has been shouting from the rooftops that this man isn't in their country. After OBL, that will just been seen as another case of Pakistani perfidy if he is found & taken out within Pakistan. No one will really line up to support Pakistan on this.

Kargil is not the type of limited tactical operation I was referring to. More the kind of incident that left 2 Indian soldiers dead or something similar. Anything larger will provoke a heavy response & Pakistan simply won't want that.

Not a bad analogy, especially when you consider the number killed in those attacks versus the ones killed in a hypothetical attack like the one we are referring to. As far as state involvement goes, it is the GoI's position (after Abu Jundal's confession, adding to Headley's) that there was Pakistani state involvement in 26/11. This was articulated by the then Home Minister. The evidence satisfies the Indian government & in a scenario that were are talking about, that is all that should matter.
That might well be true but no one would argue that the PA is crazy as a whole.

Reasonable points this time, but still, everything you've said is based on assumptions. Let's say that this operation is conducted and Dawood is not found to be there, what then? What will India do against Pakistan? Such an operation is a double edged sword, that is something India will not risk. The US only risked it because they had credible evidence, and even then they weren't sure. If OBL wasn't in Abbotabad? What would the US do?

I'd like to point out that there is still no evidence that Pakistani state was involved in 26/11. A simple confession does not a guilty man make, you'd do well to keep that in mind. Also, like to say that the comparison is superficial at best.

PA has always been crazy, it's only recently that PA has been toning down it's rhetoric. After the Musharraf era, PA has pretty much learned that it cannot do whatever it wants with the Pakistani state.

 

[Thorough Pro]

More supa powa wet dreams by sub-conscience to wash the embarrassment in DBO by 5 Chinese foot soldiers...

By Anas Abbas

Ten years ago on a balmy, sunny day in Karachi, my father asked me to accompany him to a great seth’s house. People in Karachi sometimes gather at houses of major industrialists’ to see their impressive sacrificial animals, purchased for Bakra Eid.

I was only too eager to go to one such grand place which turned out to be at a distance of just two kilometres from my house. When we arrived, we found crowds of people gawking at expensive animals. As I took in the sights and sounds, the owner of the house came out, flanked by his guards and kids.

I wondered aloud who this intriguing man could be, my father chuckled: “He has many names. In India, he’s the most wanted man. And here some know him as Ibrahim Mushtaq and others call him Tiger Memon!”

Perhaps unsurprisingly, given my age, this didn’t mean a whole lot to me at that time. But it would soon change.

Not long after I left Pakistan, in pursuit of university education, I began studying the historic conflicts across the world, and became deeply interested in counter-terrorism and history, and started scrutinising various conflicts around the world.

Dawood soon crept back into my life. While debating politics with my cousin one day, I was shocked to discover that Tiger Memon’s son was his friend. They had studied together, it turned out, at Karachi’s prominent City School.

Indian terrorists, it became clear to me, had integrated well in Pakistan’s society.

When I went to Karachi next, I tried conducting my own investigation. I knew Tiger Memon’s house and had seen the state patronage he was living under, but I was more interested in the even bigger fish who was also said to be living in Karachi, and was the main accused in the 1993 Bombay blasts.

It didn’t take a lot of finding-out. Dawood Ibrahim, who featured among the top in Forbes list of most wanted dreaded criminals, was living openly in Clifton, Block 4, Karachi, near Café Flo, known as an elite hang-out. Last year when I visited Karachi, I asked my friends where Dawood Ibrahim lived and I was told time and again the same location.

When I went to that particular area, I observed containers had been put-up and the street was blockaded. People were frisked and IDs checked before one could be granted entry into the mansion. Pakistan Army Rangers patrolled the road.

I realised that Pakistani journalists weren’t very keen to chase up this fantastic story because they did not want to suffer the same fate as Daniel Pearl, Saleem Shehzad and Ghulam Hasnain.

Ghulam Hasnain wrote a wonderfully detailed account of Dawood’s lavish lifestyle in Karachi and Lahore. Subsequently, he was kidnapped and when he returned, he had suffered several fractures on his body.

American journalists do not write about him either, because they are not interested in Dawood Ibrahim. Also, America needs Pakistan to buttress its Afghan policy and support a peace deal with the Taliban. It is for this reason that the American government and media do not feel the need to pressurise Pakistan to stop supporting Dawood Ibrahim.

If India has any intentions of ever capturing Dawood Ibrahim and Tiger Memon—or other top terrorists, Maulana Masood Azhar and Hafiz Muhammad Saeed—it needs, first, to rid itself of the illusion that Pakistan’s criminal justice will help.

Take the example of Hafiz Saeed: Known throughout the world as a terrorist, at home he’s a television celebrity, represented as a pious man. Back in 2009, Saeed was acquitted of several terrorism-related charges by the Lahore High Court. The prosecution lawyer, Latif Khosa, convinced the judge that Saeed had links to al Qaeda. But the judge still ruled in Saeed’s favour, since having connections with al Qaeda was no offence under Pakistani law.

Imagine that a country which has lost over 50,000 of its citizens to al Qaeda supported militants, and has suffered a $70 billion economic loss, is still unable to pass a legislation banning al Qaeda. This goes to show what Pakistan’s priorities are.

The conversation that I had with my father when I first visited Tiger Memon’s house reverberated in my mind when I saw the mind blowing Indian movie D-Day. Irfan Khan sees the Don Dawood Ibrahim for the first time at the mosque, and is told by his Pakistani friend: “He has many names. Some call him Saleem Pathan and others know him as Iqbal Seth.”

The Pakistan government’s only strategy is denial. Will India eventually mount an operation to get Dawood Ibrahim, as shown in D Day, akin to the one America mounted against Osama bin Laden? Or will India keep on waiting endlessly for Pakistan to punish those terrorists who are causing mayhem in India and inciting violence from across the border?

Only time will tell.

Anas Abbas is an investigative Counter Terrorism Analyst. He blogs at aacounterterror.wordpress.com and tweets at @Anas_Abbas1.

 

[Bang Galore]

Reasonable points this time, but still, everything you've said is based on assumptions. Let's say that this operation is conducted and Dawood is not found to be there, what then? What will India do against Pakistan? Such an operation is a double edged sword, that is something India will not risk. The US only risked it because they had credible evidence, and even then they weren't sure. If OBL wasn't in Abbotabad? What would the US do?

I'd like to point out that there is still no evidence that Pakistani state was involved in 26/11. A simple confession does not a guilty man make, you'd do well to keep that in mind. Also, like to say that the comparison is superficial at best.

PA has always been crazy, it's only recently that PA has been toning down it's rhetoric. After the Musharraf era, PA has pretty much learned that it cannot do whatever it wants with the Pakistani state.

Two quick points, we will probably end up running in circles if this is stretched.

I did point out that the main reason why this operation is unlikely is its success factor...intelligence, execution, extraction....every part. Nor is Dawood equivalent of OBL, to risk so much.

The second point refers to "Pakistani state involvement". You are harping on the quality of evidence, I'm merely pointing out that the GoI is absolutely convinced that elements of the ISI, authorised or not, were part of the operation. This has also been independently confirmed by the Americans(refer Bruce Riedel). GoI being convinced is what is important here and they are. The comparison fits.