Will India become a superpower by 2020?
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He is amriki. Another of the false flags roaming around in PPF! Don't waste your time, other than if you are bored and feel like wasting it.
Sir.
Not by a far chance. But I can definitely say that India remains on a sound base towards improving it's socioeconomic and political indices over the next few years.
The sub-continental mentality of undermining our own society and nation remains the bane of the countries here.
@zip Here is another species of those that I aver to .... only the moniker keeps changing
Here is super power Chinas GDP annual growth Rate,
And here is India's GDP annual growth Rate.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...-released-later-govt/articleshow/65462173.cms
Nothing official about it: Govt says GDP back series data experimental
NEW DELHI: The government said the gross domestic product (GDP) back series issued by a committee of the National Statistical Commission (NSC) amounted to “experimental results” meant to facilitate a decision on the approach to be followed and are not official estimates.
The data that became public on Friday showed growth to be higher over 2003-04 to 2011-12 and lower before that from 1994-95, triggering a war between the Bharatiya Janata Party and Congress, with the latter claiming India did better under the UPA that it led. India’s GDP growth is shown at 10.08% in FY07 under the back-series calculation, up from 9.57% estimated earlier.
“The committee used the production shift approach and came out with some experimental results to see how the approach compares with the earlier series,” said a ministry of statistics and programme implementation (MoSPI) statement on Sunday. “Thus, estimates in the report are not official estimates and are meant only to facilitate taking a decision on the appropriate approach.”
The committee said the deviations were not significant and attributed these to discrepancies. “When we look at the growth rates, there are some differences, although not significant and this is largely due to the ‘discrepancy’ variable, which is found to be highly volatile,” it said.
The NSC had constituted the committee on real sector statistics under the chairmanship of Sudipto Mundle, emeritus professor, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, in April last year for improvement and modernisation of the database. In a separate statement on Sunday, NSC said the methodology for backcasting GDP series had not yet been finalised and various alternative methods were being explored.
“Thus, it is work in progress,” the NSC said. As per MoSPI, various alternatives are being worked out for back casting the series till 2004-05, which will be finalized and released after due consultation with the advisory committee on national accounts. The committee has also restated the old series using one — production shift method — of the possible three ways. This is different from the method currently followed in compiling GDP data.
The committee recommended the other two methods also be used to calculate back series and when these numbers become available, then “time series data based on all the three approaches should be compared for their robustness.” MoSPI had revised the base year of GDP to 2011-12 and said the new series is a “structural breakaway from the old series, as it includes information sources which have newly become available or are more regular than the earlier ones.”
For instance, information on the corporate sector was taken from the ministry of corporate affairs MCA-21database. Niti Aayog vice chairman Rajiv Kumar dismissed the higher growth rate in 2009-2011and in previous years. He tweeted that this was funded by “untenable fiscal deficit and reckless expansion of commercial bank credit which was surely unsustainable. This led to a dramatic economic collapse and growth floundered spectacularly in last 3 years of UPA II”.
As per the report, average growth in FY05-09 under the UPA went up under the new series to 8.37% from 8.03% earlier in terms of market prices. In terms of factor cost, increase is from 8.43% to 8.87%. Average growth during the preceding Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) administration was down marginally from 5.89% to 5.73%.
In terms of factor cost, decline was from 6.01% to 5.83%. In the first three years of UPA-2 (FY10-12), the average growth rate goes up from 8.46% to 8.86%. In terms of factor cost, the revision is up from 8.06% to 8.49%. Growth data based on the old series is available till FY12 while the revised series is till FY14.
The new GDP series with FY12 as base year was begun in 2015 and follows internationally accepted methods based on market prices as opposed to the factor cost method followed earlier and uses corporate numbers to estimate manufacturing output.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...-released-later-govt/articleshow/65462173.cms
Nothing official about it: Govt says GDP back series data experimental
NEW DELHI: The government said the gross domestic product (GDP) back series issued by a committee of the National Statistical Commission (NSC) amounted to “experimental results” meant to facilitate a decision on the approach to be followed and are not official estimates.
The data that became public on Friday showed growth to be higher over 2003-04 to 2011-12 and lower before that from 1994-95, triggering a war between the Bharatiya Janata Party and Congress, with the latter claiming India did better under the UPA that it led. India’s GDP growth is shown at 10.08% in FY07 under the back-series calculation, up from 9.57% estimated earlier.
“The committee used the production shift approach and came out with some experimental results to see how the approach compares with the earlier series,” said a ministry of statistics and programme implementation (MoSPI) statement on Sunday. “Thus, estimates in the report are not official estimates and are meant only to facilitate taking a decision on the appropriate approach.”
The committee said the deviations were not significant and attributed these to discrepancies. “When we look at the growth rates, there are some differences, although not significant and this is largely due to the ‘discrepancy’ variable, which is found to be highly volatile,” it said.
The NSC had constituted the committee on real sector statistics under the chairmanship of Sudipto Mundle, emeritus professor, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, in April last year for improvement and modernisation of the database. In a separate statement on Sunday, NSC said the methodology for backcasting GDP series had not yet been finalised and various alternative methods were being explored.
“Thus, it is work in progress,” the NSC said. As per MoSPI, various alternatives are being worked out for back casting the series till 2004-05, which will be finalized and released after due consultation with the advisory committee on national accounts. The committee has also restated the old series using one — production shift method — of the possible three ways. This is different from the method currently followed in compiling GDP data.
The committee recommended the other two methods also be used to calculate back series and when these numbers become available, then “time series data based on all the three approaches should be compared for their robustness.” MoSPI had revised the base year of GDP to 2011-12 and said the new series is a “structural breakaway from the old series, as it includes information sources which have newly become available or are more regular than the earlier ones.”
For instance, information on the corporate sector was taken from the ministry of corporate affairs MCA-21database. Niti Aayog vice chairman Rajiv Kumar dismissed the higher growth rate in 2009-2011and in previous years. He tweeted that this was funded by “untenable fiscal deficit and reckless expansion of commercial bank credit which was surely unsustainable. This led to a dramatic economic collapse and growth floundered spectacularly in last 3 years of UPA II”.
As per the report, average growth in FY05-09 under the UPA went up under the new series to 8.37% from 8.03% earlier in terms of market prices. In terms of factor cost, increase is from 8.43% to 8.87%. Average growth during the preceding Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) administration was down marginally from 5.89% to 5.73%.
In terms of factor cost, decline was from 6.01% to 5.83%. In the first three years of UPA-2 (FY10-12), the average growth rate goes up from 8.46% to 8.86%. In terms of factor cost, the revision is up from 8.06% to 8.49%. Growth data based on the old series is available till FY12 while the revised series is till FY14.
The new GDP series with FY12 as base year was begun in 2015 and follows internationally accepted methods based on market prices as opposed to the factor cost method followed earlier and uses corporate numbers to estimate manufacturing output.
Yes, this was news in 2014.
What is your point ?
The back series are the basis for Modi's shift to new GDP calculation that added 2% to growth figures overnight. If the back series are "experimental", then what does this make Modi's GDP revision?
In reality, India has been growing no more than 6% under Modi, so your chart was pointless. If India had been growing as fast as your chart indicates, then where are the jobs?
https://www.barrons.com/articles/is-india-lying-about-its-world-beating-economy-1488769695
Is India Lying About Its World Beating Economy?
Derek Scissors
March 5, 2017 10:08 p.m. ET
India just announced its October-December GDP figures, supposedly showing it is still the fastest-growing major economy. You should not believe it. Every quarter there are questions about India’s GDP, with this one no exception. But there is a bigger problem: India refuses to publish the full GDP series, so that the world may not be able to trust the Indian government’s claims at all.
In January 2015 India revised recent GDP growth figures higher, among other things raising the fiscal year 2013-4 gain from 5% all the way to 6.9%. It is at this point the fastest-growing economy boasts began. Questions about the revision were raised immediately, including by current Indian government officials, because purportedly faster GDP did not fit with many other indicators. (It still does not.)
Since then, however, the new series has become widely used. While the Indian government argues that it better matches global practices, it manifestly fails to do so in an indispensable respect. The back series – the necessary base for calculations of ongoing GDP growth – has not been published more than 2 years later. Technically, we do not know India’s GDP in 2010, or anytime earlier.
The back series was first to be published December 2015, then mid-2016, and now has no apparent due date and will not be complete. The “globally accepted” new approach therefore makes it impossible to assess India’s GDP trajectory, potentially important information for a country aspiring to rapid development.
The best way to proceed in this case was to start from the beginning, applying the new method to a base year as far in the past as possible and generating new data forward from there. The obvious question is how India determined growth when earlier years could not serve as a base? The answer is unfortunately political: the government’s desire to report faster growth trumped accuracy.
It all may sound familiar. India seemingly always has an eye on China. If China pulled a stunt like this, its “world-beating” claims would be roundly ridiculed. India initially had the benefit of the doubt because it is a multi-party democracy with a competitive press. Those are very good reasons, but not good enough. One benefit of an open society is transparency, and the Indian government is being opaque in self-interested fashion.
India had a poor reputation for statistics quality before the GDP revision. It just revised a GDP growth figure from 7.2% all the way down to 6.5% for Q415.There are other, crucial statistics practices, for example concerning rural electrification, that are clearly biased in the government’s favor. In this context, hiding past GDP looks like a continuation of previous behavior.
The central government is willing to offer such detail as revisions to the initial advanced estimates for future GDP growth. We obviously do not have measurements for the future yet, yet the government can generate a figure. What it cannot do is generate GDP for the past, when all measurements have been completed.
The GDP revision is a complex matter and the government has sound responses to some criticisms. But this part is simple: if you cannot even apply your own methodology to the past, why should anyone believe you can apply it properly to the present and future? The government is annoyed with ratings agencies for failing to see India’s progress. It should look in the mirror and properly document a basic element of that progress.
Most people from pluralist open societies want to see pluralist, open India do well. For now, however, India has the same level of economic credibility as a country like Vietnam (which publishes GDP results even before the year ends). World-beating growth? Maybe. Or maybe poorly founded quasi-propaganda.
Derek Scissors is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where he studies Asian economic issues and trends. In particular, he focuses on the Chinese and Indian economies and US economic relations with China and India. He is author of the China Global Investment Tracker and the Chinese Investment in the US Dataset.
To be considered for this feature, please submit material to:
Email: asiaresearch@barrons.com
Last edited:
Do you have stats to show that jobs have not been growing ? If so provide your proof.
The following changes were made to the calculation of GDP.
1. Base year used for calculating the GDP is Shifted from 2004-05 to 2011-12. This is the standard practice used the world over.
2. Earlier GDP was the total value of goods and services produced within the country during a year. Now, we take all final finished goods and services produced domestically in volume terms and multiply this by their market prices to arrive at the value of output. The value of output is the new GDP.
In this new calculation since the value of goods and services taken at the market value to the formerly method at production value. The new GDP includes the taxes after deducting the subsidies by the government. The reason for that being the way is, it is a global practice and this is more in line with other nations including china and the US.
They are lying to you. The numbers they came up with make no sense. And now, they have admitted it themselves by calling the numbers "experimental". It's all Modi magic.
Never go full Retard.
No, you have gone full retard. All you have done was parroting some charts and what the government told you. Do you even understand what you wrote? The GDP revisions were widely ridiculed internationally from day one.
Doubting India's 'fastest-growing' GDP stats, economists devise their own
India’s GDP numbers are so dodgy that even the central bank has doubts about them
India’s 8% GDP growth estimate is a joke
6.9% growth? World laughing at this bad joke
Problems of 'fishy' GDP figures and a lack of reform surface in Modi's third year as India's economic growth boasts begin to unravel
Yes, its called freedom of speech and free press and having a multitude of Opinion.
Same is true for China's Fake GDP
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...uffed-up-by-fake-economic-data-analysis-shows
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...na-s-regions-fare-in-the-fake-gdp-data-stakes
https://www.ft.com/content/a9889330-f51c-11e7-88f7-5465a6ce1a00
https://www.investors.com/politics/...iterally-on-chinas-and-russias-fake-gdp-data/
http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Chinese-economy-grows-on-fake-stats-44791.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-city-admits-fake-economic-data-idUSKBN1F60I1
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-16/sizing-economic-impact-chinas-fake-data
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...exposes-chinas-massive-gdp-growth-distortions
So? Who cares about China? Apparently you do, but why?
Back to topic. Do you think India will become a superpower by 2020?
Cobra Arbok
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according to the world bank india has been regularly hitting between 7 to 8 percent growth for the past few years. You can whine all you want, but the fact is the world accepts our numbers which is why we are considered by economists to be the fastest growing economy in the world. I know how painful this is for you since pakistan has yet to surpass 5 percent growth and has been revised down to 4 percent. if you dont believe me, just look at the world bank numbers. the only time india dropped bellow 7 percent was right after demonetization. Since then, India has consistently grown by 7 to 8 percent.
HariPrasad
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You said it right.We had 40pc of world GDP 2000 years ago.
The figures are recognised by world bank and IMF so couple of stupid article be commies won't help.
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