Kuwaiti Girl
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The Emiratis actually like the Russians. They're both hell-bent on destroying Islamism / political Islam in the MENA region. Both are against the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist political factions. Both prefer secular rule in the Arab republics to Islamist rule. Both do not like Qatar, and both aren't fond of Turkey's AK party.Well Haftar has no other choice than Russia, bc of the embargo on libya military equipment. If the UE/USA agreed to give something , Haftar will shift over to them. it's not like he likes russia for what they are, but more for what they can give him, afterall haftar exile in gaddafi times wasn't in Russia but in US soil.... . For the egyptian part, they are already in Russia "supply line" with the last purchase of Kamov helis and so on. Emiratis on the other hand are not pro-russians (UAE use Sissi bc he has an army , so that UAE can get thing balanced in th region) , so conflict will rise in libya in the coming months, btw those three ( Emiratis/egyptians/Hadtar) ,since they can't touch Russia, they will pick on his supporter, even if they are " friends" in publics. The fight of power btw the gulf states is just a slf-centric show , like brothers fighting in front of their moms to see who gonna get kissed first... it will end eventually. Meanwhile in Egypt, sissi if overthrown, the brotherhood will not take power, they will act like Ennadha in Tunisia, they will let a "good looking" one take power, play with the rules and then after maybe 5-10years be back on the show. As for Iran , it will be as always in the history of the muslims, " you are my friend bc I don't have a choice for now, but be sure, that you will never be my brother".
Iran is like this little brother, to young to play with 10 older brothers. He always want to be in and loved, but since he's too diffenrent from the group, he's always rejected, so he will do everything to be seen by his older brothers, whatever the cost... but time goes on and on, he became an adult and learn a terrible truth... his mom wasn't rly his mom... and then he understand the eyes given to him by his older brothers
So I actually disagree with you on this. I think the UAE and Russia share a lot of common goals/objectives in the Greater Middle East. Both countries want to strengthen their ties with Egypt, Libya and possibly Tunisia in order to ensure that none of these countries get taken over by Islamic groups in the future.
Also, the UAE quietly supports Russia in Syria as well. The UAE was very supportive towards the Russian military intervention in Syria. It also strongly attacked Turkey after the Turks shot down the Russian jet in late 2015.
Another country that's strongly aligned with Russia and the UAE with regard to opposing Islamism is Bahrain.
The Saudis are a little bit different. They also don't want any Islamic political group to take over the Arab republics, but their primary objective right now is to get rid of the Syrian government at any cost because of its close ties to Iran, even if it means supporting Islamic militant groups in Syria. But, generally speaking, the Saudis are also anti-Islamism, specifically anti-Muslim Brotherhood.
There's actually a very logical reason for why countries like Bahrain, Russia and the UAE are against Islamism. Bahrain fears Islamism because it knows that the rise of Islamism in the region will lead to a Shia Islamic revolution in Bahrain, which will bring an end to monarchical rule. The Russians fear the rise of Islamism because they know it'll eventually negatively influence many Muslims in Russia, such as the Chechens and, possibly, Tatars. The Emiratis, however, fear Islamism due to economic reasons. The UAE's economic relevance and global standing depends on its openness and tolerance. If Islamism rises in the region, then the tourism sector in the UAE will take a huge hit.
As for Iran, it's already the leader of the Shia Islamic world. And Iran, just like AKP-ruled Turkey, is passionate about promoting Islamism across the region, except in Syria, where Iran happens to be aligned with a secular Baathist government because of its strong ties with Hezbollah.
Eventually, we will see the formation of two opposing alliances/blocs in the MENA region. One bloc will promote Islamism, while the other will fight against Islamism. The pro-Islamist bloc will be led by AKP-ruled Turkey and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both countries will get closer to each other because of the following 3 reasons:
1. They share the common objective of preventing the Kurds from establishing their own state.
2. They share the common goal of promoting Islamism at the expense of secular nationalism.
3. They are gradually strengthening their economic ties. The Turks want Iranian oil and gas to meet their energy demands, while the Iranians want Turkish banknotes and gold to meet their financial demands.
The anti-Islamic bloc, on the other hand, will largely be led by the UAE and given tacit support by the likes of Israel and Russia.
So the UAE and Russia will help each other in Libya. They'll try to help Haftar reconquer all of Libya and defeat the Tripoli-based Turkish-backed Islamists.
Egypt remains a swing state. Secular rule will ensure that Egypt remains closer to the likes of the UAE and Russia than to the likes of Iran, Iraq and Turkey. But an Islamist takeover of Egypt, which I personally think is highly possible in the next couple of years, will pull Egypt closer to Turkey and Iran.
I personally think the Muslim Brotherhood is still strong and organized enough to retake Egypt and even your country, Tunisia. I personally hope this doesn't happen since I prefer secularism to Islamism. But as I see it, the situation in Egypt is very fragile and another revolution is probably just around the corner.
The Emiratis know this very well, which is why they're extremely worried about the situation in Egypt. The Emiratis have already expressed their disapproval of the way the money they sent to Egypt has been mismanaged by el-Sisi and his government. The Emiratis were hoping that their investments in Egypt would quickly turn the country's economy around and help silence dissent, but this hasn't happened yet. On the contrary, the Egyptian leadership hasn't learned anything from past mistakes and is continuing to mismanage its finances. If el-Sisi doesn't fix his country's economy in the next couple of years, then I won't be surprised if the Islamists return to power before 2020, in which case Egypt will shift away from the Gulf and get closer to Turkey.