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Will China's GDP be 6 trillion USD in 2010???

ChineseTiger1986

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That doesn't seem right, 5.84 trillion GDP would be a 17% GDP growth year on year. I don't think it's that high. You don't have to wait long though, 6 trillion should be reached right around this time next year....
 
That doesn't seem right, 5.84 trillion GDP would be a 17% GDP growth year on year. I don't think it's that high. You don't have to wait long though, 6 trillion should be reached right around this time next year....

Even the World Bank gave the initial prediction in last year's October; 5.75 trillion USD.

Yeah, actually China's GDP grows far more than 10% per year.
 
Communist Party Publication of China says that China's GDP in 2010 is above 39 trillion RMB:
µ³¿¯³Æ2010ÖйúGDPÓÐÍû³¬39ÍòÒÚ ¾ÓÊÀ½çµÚ¶þ_ÍøÒײƾ­

Currently the exchange rate between US dollar and RMB is about 1 :6.6
So calculated in currently exchange rate, China's GDP in 2010 should be above 39 / 6.6 = 5.91 trillion US dollar.
 
recently,with the increasing appreciation of the RMB,the gdp will grow to a certain extent!but it seems to make no sense when the gdp grow due to the currency appreciation!
 
recently,with the increasing appreciation of the RMB,the gdp will grow to a certain extent!but it seems to make no sense when the gdp grow due to the currency appreciation!

An increase in the nominal GDP does make sense when there is a large gap between China's nominal GDP and its PPP. Strictly from an economic perspective, an argument can be made that China's "real" nominal GDP should be roughly equivalent to its PPP. If you agree with this metric then China's nominal GDP is simply catching up to its "real" GDP.

In the past, a country's GDP was calculated based on the exchange rate to the U.S. dollar on the last day of the year. However, the method of calculation has been changed. The new method uses the 12-month average of a country's currency vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar. This will lower the official 2010 GDP for China, because not all of the currency appreciation during 2010 will be considered; only the average.

According to the IMF:

List of countries by GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
China's nominal GDP for 2010 is about: 5.745 trillion U.S. dollars

List of countries by future GDP (PPP) estimates - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
China's PPP GDP for 2010 is about: 10.084 trillion U.S. dollars
 
recently,with the increasing appreciation of the RMB,the gdp will grow to a certain extent!but it seems to make no sense when the gdp grow due to the currency appreciation!

i had this discussion in another forum:

when people talking about GDP number, most cases they are talking about nominal GDP number not real GDP number, but when talking about GDP growth rate, they are referring to real GDP growth rate which is inflation adjusted.

With 9-10% average growth rate in mind, people might be wondering how huge GDP number was added up.

2000 GDP in dollar = 1.19 trillions, in yuan 1.19*8.6 = 10.234 trillions
2010 GDP in dollar - 5.7 trillions, in yuan 5.7 * 6.6 = 37.62 trillions

37.9= 10.234 * 1.14^10
5.72 =1.19 * 1.17^10

so the nominal GDP growth rate in yuan is 14% in which 4-5% inflation rate added , nominal GDP growth rate in dollars is 17% with additional 3-4 percentage of currency appreciation
 
If we use the current exchange rate, China's 2010 GDP hit U.S. $6 trillion (e.g. 39.5 trillion Yuans / 6.5997 Yuan per dollar = U.S. $5.99 trillion).

However, the accepted method of calculating GDP is to use the 12-month average of the currency exchange rate. For 2010, the average exchange rate was 6.7692 Yuan per U.S. dollar (see Monthly Exchange Rate Average (Chinese Yuan, American Dollar) 2010 - x-rates). The official GDP for China in 2010 will be U.S. $5.84 trillion.

China's National Bureau of Statistics has shown a historical pattern of revising China's GDP upwards later in the year. For all intents and purposes, China's 2010 GDP is within a hair's breadth of U.S. $6 trillion.

UPDATE 1-China's economy grew 10.1 pct in 2010 -official | Reuters

"UPDATE 1-China's economy grew 10.1 pct in 2010 -official
Sat Jan 15, 2011 4:22am EST

* China 2010 GDP rises 10.1 pct to 39.5 trln yuan-official

* Says China faces pressure to meet 4 percent CPI target this year

BEIJING, Jan 15 (Reuters) - The Chinese economy grew around 10.1 percent last year, the deputy head of China's top economic planning agency told Reuters on Saturday, which amounts to the fastest pace of annual growth in three years.

Zhang Xiaoqiang, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said the country's gross domestic product totalled about 39.5 trillion yuan ($6 trillion) in 2010.

The 2010 growth rate accelerated from a revised 9.2 percent expansion seen in 2009.

But Zhang noted that China may struggle to meet its 2011 inflation target of 4 percent as domestic labour costs climb and global commodity prices soar.

"There are many factors that are putting upward pressure on domestic prices, and we must note that imported inflation is intensifying this year," he said at a trade forum.

Zhang reiterated the government aims for growth this year of 8 percent in China's economy, the world's biggest, but stressed that the task of keeping prices stable will top Beijing's agenda.

He said uncertainties around the pace of recovery in the world economy could weigh on China's key export sector in 2011.

"We may face big difficulties in growing our exports in the future," he said.

To get around that, Zhang said, Chinese exporters should endeavour to move up the manufacturing value chain and place less emphasis on volume and more on quality.

His assessment of China's outlook is less upbeat than that of China's Commerce Minister Chen Deming.

Chen said on Friday China's exports and imports will grow at a faster pace this year than in 2010.

Chinese exports jumped around 31 percent in 2010 from a year ago, while imports leapt nearly 39 percent. (Reporting by Aileen Wang and Koh Gui Qing, editing by Jane Baird)"

China's yuan hits new record high at 6.5997 per USD

"China's yuan hits new record high at 6.5997 per USD
English.news.cn 2011-01-13 10:52:04

BEIJING, Jan. 13 (Xinhua) -- The Chinese yuan strengthened to a record high against the U.S. dollar on Thursday to reach 6.5997 per dollar.

The central parity rate of the Chinese currency, also known as the renminbi (RMB), was set 131 basis points lower than Wednesday's 6.6128, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trading System. (story continues)"
 

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