Will China regret growth dash?

[cross1993]

... you must be far older than I am, I'm only 22, still in university. Already have own house is amazing, I'll probably be renting for the next 15 years.

But don't factory 包吃包住? the electronics factory my cousin used to work at before he found a real job paid 800 per month, but free food and housing.

You can make your cousin to Shenzhen.
Now in Shenzhen, to find a job very easy, even low-paid jobs, wages are more than 3,000 RMB per month.

 

[tallboy123]

Forget china,we should concentrate on our economy and stop posting negative news about china or pakistan...it will change nothing...

 

[below_freezing]

You can make your cousin to Shenzhen.
Now in Shenzhen, to find a job very easy, even low-paid jobs, wages are more than 3,000 RMB per month.

that was 2005, haha... he's had OK jobs since 2006 and even had a 8000/month project in Shanghai for a year. housing prices in shenzhen i heard where 10000+/m2 in outer parts? in my district it went from 3000/m2 in 2005 to 9000/m2.

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I'm just glad my city got featured on the news. But not for this. We should also stop posting negative things about India. It's really getting boring and annoying. We know India has internal problems, does India's internal problems reduce our own?!

 

[cross1993]

that was 2005, haha... he's had OK jobs since 2006 and even had a 8000/month project in Shanghai for a year. housing prices in shenzhen i heard where 10000+/m2 in outer parts? in my district it went from 3000/m2 in 2005 to 9000/m2.

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I'm just glad my city got featured on the news. But not for this. We should also stop posting negative things about India. It's really getting boring and annoying. We know India has internal problems, does India's internal problems reduce our own?!

Chinese media is not too concerned about India, they like the news of Japan and the USA...
After all, we are East Asian people.

Expensive housing prices in Shenzhen, but better than in Shanghai.

 

[Hafizzz]

why do indian members seem to be the first ones to post negative news on china
how's this for a change, focus on our own country. Let chinese deal with theirs

Because Indians love to bash China.

 

[redfox]

Yes, the biggest economic problem is Housing price.
China's Housing like India's onion.
A full year time, Wen Jiabao did not solve that problem...

There five good indicators of inflation. I think these 5 can be controllable.

Metals: aluminum, copper, gold, nickel, silver
Energies: crude oil, heating oil, natural gas, unleaded gas
Grains: corn, soybeans, wheat
Food & Fiber: cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar
Livestock: lean hogs, live cattle

The housing market, unfortunately is not so easy.

Three things the government can try and do and it won't have any affects quickly.

One is to raise interest rates, making it difficult for people to get a loan. With less buyers, property price can stablize or drop. I think the banks have raised interest rates at least twice already? If not more.

Two is to limit construction of new properties at a more moderate rate. More being available can only drive prices higher. Making available older properties to compete to the newly developed. Again this can lead to the argument of 'less is more'.

Three would be to limit foreign investment. And China has announced new limits on the ability of foreigners to buy residential or commercial property on the mainland, in its latest effort to curb the inflows of speculative money into its economy and ease inflationary pressure.


I believe 2 out 3 is happening as we speak. My best advice is live within your means, it will do the country better.

 

[CardSharp]

Two is to limit construction of new properties at a more moderate rate. More being available can only drive prices higher. Making available older properties to compete to the newly developed. Again this can lead to the argument of 'less is more'.

Three would be to limit foreign investment. And China has announced new limits on the ability of foreigners to buy residential or commercial property on the mainland, in its latest effort to curb the inflows of speculative money into its economy and ease inflationary pressure.

Three will work but how does two work? Stop building and you'll limit supply, increasing demand.


What we need to do is limit speculative buying. (buying houses in hope that they will appreciate in value) Stop that and we should be fine.

 

[Vassnti]

China's inflation is pretty worrying, especially in food, but housing prices are even more terrible. Prices in my area grew 3x in the past 5 years. Great that my parents bought a house 6 years ago. Terrible for my cousin, wife and 4 year old daughter who share our house. My uncle (the cousin's father) is a civil engineer with 15 years of experience managing a multimillion skyscraper project and he can't even buy a house in the skyscrapers he builds, he lives in a shack on the construction site and my aunt lives back in the countryside taking care of the cows.

What i would love to know is how China's inflation rate is calculated?

3x in five years isnt 3% being lazy and ignoring the compounding 300/5 is 60% housing inflation. Ok housing isnt the entire basket but its a big part of peoples incomes and something emotional for many. A future of hey ive got an MBA a flash car a good job and im 45 and still live with my parents because i cant afford an appartment isnt probably what young Chinese are dreaming of.

Does any one really know, local officials love to "adjust" figures to put their chances of promotion in a good light so they tend to tweak growth up and inflation down. In such a large diverse country is a global inflation figure even relevant or should we look at provincial figures.
I just see 8% 9% 10% 12% growth every year better and better but none of the pains of growth appear just reminds me of rice production figures under Mao, every province is reported to have a bumper harvest while people starved.

 

[CardSharp]

What i would love to know is how China's inflation rate is calculated?

3x in five years isnt 3% being lazy and ignoring the compounding 300/5 is 60% housing inflation. Ok housing isnt the entire basket but its a big part of peoples incomes and something emotional for many. A future of hey ive got an MBA a flash car a good job and im 45 and still live with my parents because i cant afford an appartment isnt probably what young Chinese are dreaming of.

Does any one really know, local officials love to "adjust" figures to put their chances of promotion in a good light so they tend to tweak growth up and inflation down. In such a large diverse country is a global inflation figure even relevant or should we look at provincial figures.
I just see 8% 9% 10% 12% growth every year better and better but none of the pains of growth appear just reminds me of rice production figures under Mao, every province is reported to have a bumper harvest while people starved.

GDP figures are pretty well supported/correlated by other indices and growth indicators, most of which have multiple ways of being calculated and is done by a whole bunch of different people.

Not saying that stat juking doesn't go on but if you look at the picture as a whole, there's just no way that some official can flip a coin and say it's going to be a 9.85 % growth year this year.

 

[below_freezing]

What i would love to know is how China's inflation rate is calculated?

3x in five years isnt 3% being lazy and ignoring the compounding 300/5 is 60% housing inflation. Ok housing isnt the entire basket but its a big part of peoples incomes and something emotional for many. A future of hey ive got an MBA a flash car a good job and im 45 and still live with my parents because i cant afford an appartment isnt probably what young Chinese are dreaming of.

Does any one really know, local officials love to "adjust" figures to put their chances of promotion in a good light so they tend to tweak growth up and inflation down. In such a large diverse country is a global inflation figure even relevant or should we look at provincial figures.
I just see 8% 9% 10% 12% growth every year better and better but none of the pains of growth appear just reminds me of rice production figures under Mao, every province is reported to have a bumper harvest while people starved.

The growth rates calculated is taking into account inflation. Nominal growth is something like 15-20%. The housing alone is rising in price at 60% but that is due to abnormal market forces and corruption. Other than food and housing, prices are stable or dropping. The difference between the nominal and actual growth is a good indicator of inflation and money supply expansion. The latest nominal rates from 2007 are 30%, actual rate 11.4%.

List of countries by real GDP growth rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
List of countries by nominal GDP growth rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[redfox]

Three will work but how does two work? Stop building and you'll limit supply, increasing demand.


What we need to do is limit speculative buying. (buying houses in hope that they will appreciate in value) Stop that and we should be fine.

When a new home is constructed, the target market price is driven up by 15-35% above what an existing home would cost. This would satisfy demand and profit, but still leave uncontrollable inflation in the housing market.

 

[cross1993]

I think we should limit real estate speculation through tax, and should limit the profits of the real estate business through legislation.

I hope the Wen Jiabao will solve this problem, before the end of his term. Because "Suppress Housing prices" is a offend people work, he should not be left to his successor that trouble.

 

[cross1993]

What i would love to know is how China's inflation rate is calculated?

3x in five years isnt 3% being lazy and ignoring the compounding 300/5 is 60% housing inflation. Ok housing isnt the entire basket but its a big part of peoples incomes and something emotional for many. A future of hey ive got an MBA a flash car a good job and im 45 and still live with my parents because i cant afford an appartment isnt probably what young Chinese are dreaming of.

Does any one really know, local officials love to "adjust" figures to put their chances of promotion in a good light so they tend to tweak growth up and inflation down. In such a large diverse country is a global inflation figure even relevant or should we look at provincial figures.
I just see 8% 9% 10% 12% growth every year better and better but none of the pains of growth appear just reminds me of rice production figures under Mao, every province is reported to have a bumper harvest while people starved.

Also has cut prices of goods, For example: cars, drugs, mobile, computer, electric equipment, etc...
I know <The Times of India> has been reported that China's true inflation rate is 6%, but that is wrong.


China's biggest inflation problem is Housing prices.
Yes. Because of the drought occurred in Yunnan Province, food prices have increased. But food prices soon stability and fall through increased food imports.

 

[Tractor]

In my consideration the future of China is hopefull.I had been to Wuhan first time in october last year.Generally Wuahan is huge and grey in colour even dirty and disordered,but I don't feel uncomfortable and enjoy of it's food and beautiful tourist spots,like Donghu, Wuhan University .What impressed me is that Hongshan Road is too clean and ordered not like other parts of Wuhan because the CCP headquarter of Hubei province located there.

 

[Birruna]

why do indian members seem to be the first ones to post negative news on china
how's this for a change, focus on our own country. Let chinese deal with theirs

Abhishek, for god's sake stop being such a humungous wet blanket.