Wil pak expats bet on pakistan?

[nahtanbob]

Short term pain but we, as a country, cannot and should not rely on remittances to balance our books. We need to rely on our exports and fiscal discipline to not overspend. If anything, remittances should help to create a forex reserves surplus.

I understand short term pain. 50% drop is too drastic even for me.

 

[blain2]

I understand short term pain. 50% drop is too drastic even for me.

Not sure what the 50% drop is based on? People are already sending money through non-official means like Hawala etc. Is that what you mean by holding back?

People overseas should realize that remittances aren't a good tool for political dissent.

 

[nahtanbob]

Not sure what the 50% drop is based on? People are already sending money through non-official means like Hawala etc. Is that what you mean by holding back?

People overseas should realize that remittances aren't a good tool for political dissent.

If Pakistanis stop going abroad for work and all Pakistanis abroad are sent back home what will be the 2-5 year hit on the Pakistani economy ?
That is where I get the 50% number

 

[blain2]

If Pakistanis stop going abroad for work and all Pakistanis abroad are sent back home what will be the 2-5 year hit on the Pakistani economy ?
That is where I get the 50% number

But why would those things happen? If anything, more people will leave Pakistan and more will send money back to help their relatives.

 

[FuturePAF]

Did you factor the possible currency devaluation?

Indonesia gives you 11% per year for 24 years?

Dollar is a reserve currency, so there is very little currency fluctuation, and S&P500 index fund gives you a consistent 4% CAGR which is decent.

Indonesia’s GDP growth, averaged out over the last 24 years as over 11%. Once they did their reforms the growth was probably front loaded at a much higher percentage, probably the same case with India and China, all three over the last three decades.

There are probably areas within the economy that are probably even faster areas of economic growth, considering how backwards Pakistan’s agricultural sector is (with limited mechanized agriculture by world standards), better irrigation techniques, equipment, seeds, fertilizer and pesticides use, the growth in yields could be 3-4 fold what they currently are. Then you look at the potential to increase arable land into the four desert areas with an expanded canal network with the use of dams and water management, and you see this could be high growth. All of this taking into account the low labor costs, so you can pick and choose the best talent, to train and employ, at a competitive salary.

The rupees, once reserves go up, will strengthen. Economists would advise to keep it low to remain competitive, the way China did for decades, but the rupee will strengthen to a level in accordance with the stability and size of the economy. Heck, if the Pakistani GDP per capita reaches parity with the Indian GDP per capita, and the economy is equally robust and developed, the PKR will be back to 60-80% the value of the INR if not closer.

All this is to say, with even modest reforms and inviting investment to go big into Coal fired plants; increase coal’s percentage of electricity generation to 50% from the current 10% (remember India is about to invest $55 billion on new coal fired power plants this decade, this is on top of the fact currently 45% of their electricity comes from coal fired power plants) then the Pakistani economy will be stable and will grow out of the current problems.

The elite, who keep their money invested, will pay more in taxes but see many of their investments grow at least 10 fold in a couple decades, and it will be in an environment where they will be part of a class to set the cultural trends in the land they live, rather then living in a foreign country where their influence will be limited.

 

[cricketrulez]

It’s 40 cents on the dollar now.

Bondsupermart

www.bondsupermart.com

@RiazHaq is this a good time to jump in?

 

[ghazi52]

.,.,.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631363841895325717

 

[ziaulislam]

are you saying he will swish away the debt? fairly simple question

Let's assume a govt that can force military inc in a bucket comes..

If that happens (less then 1% chance)
The. By just documentation and treating you will see your debt to GDP ratio drop to half from where it is..which even now isn't horrible it's just 90% of GDP

Mushi re rated the economy and GDP debt dropped to half

However the problem is military Inc won't give away power so this is useless excercise

 

[cricketrulez]

Let's assume a govt that can force military inc in a bucket comes..

If that happens (less then 1% chance)
The. By just documentation and treating you will see your debt to GDP ratio drop to half from where it is..which even now isn't horrible it's just 90% of GDP

Mushi re rated the economy and GDP debt dropped to half

However the problem is military Inc won't give away power so this is useless excercise

if I understand u correctly, military expenditure will be reduced and your budget deficit will come down and that will help with domestic currency. There is still the matter of CAD. Imagine pets not related to military far exceeds exports and remittances and that is adding to external debt. Isn’t that the main issue? How will that be solved by who is the PM? Imports went up by ~$20b in 2022 compared to 2021, which is what wiped out the Forex reserves.

 

[Edevelop]

No matter which government has been in power, overseas Pakistanis have always been protected. That's 100%. Now If you have decided to close the chapter because of your personal likes and dislikes or because of media or because of some politician who has been propagating against his opponents just so he can be in power, well that's not good, is it? I believe Pakistan has tremendous potential if one actually thinks outside political bias. At the end of the day the choice is yours. If you missed the boat, you missed it.

Pakistan is not doomed. It will continue to work very well for the military and the elite, and the expats will slowly assimilate in their adopted homelands over a few generations.

Just like Tim Hortons has broken all time record in sales. The market is so huge that no business in their right mind can fail.

 

[HAIDER]

Give us voting right we give a money to trustable person ...didn't you see Roshan Digital success. How Pakistani turned that PTI program into billion dollar bank overnight.

 

[maithil]

Any expat who invested in last Jan-March, has lost 50% in on year purely due to devaluation. Even if return is 20% in PKR, he still loses 30%. How many expats can afford this ?

 

[epebble]

Any expat who invested in last Jan-March, has lost 50% in on year purely due to devaluation. Even if return is 20% in PKR, he still loses 30%. How many expats can afford this ?

If they invested in Foreign Currency bonds, they will not lose anything unless payment is repudiated at the time of bond maturity. Till now, I am not aware of any such repudiation as that would instantly change the status of Pakistan into Default.

 

[cricketrulez]

Give us voting right we give a money to trustable person ...didn't you see Roshan Digital success. How Pakistani turned that PTI program into billion dollar bank overnight.

Looks to me like the issue is increased imports in 2022? What led to a $20b increase imports?

Pakistan Imports 1960-2023

Imports of goods and services represent the value of all goods and other market services received from the rest of the world. They include the value of merchandise, freight, insurance, transport, travel, royalties, license fees, and other services, such as communication, construction, financial...

www.macrotrends.net

• Pakistan imports for 2021 was $62.66B, a 19.74% increase from 2020.
• Pakistan imports for 2020 was $52.33B, a 16.44% decline from 2019.
• Pakistan imports for 2019 was $62.62B, a 7.66% decline from 2018.
• Pakistan imports for 2018 was $67.82B, a 15.91% increase from 2017.

Pakistan’s import bill records over $80 bn in 2021/2022

total import bill of Pakistan has crossed a record $80 billion mark, showing 42 per cent increase during fiscal year 2021/2022, according to

pkrevenue.com

The total import bill of the country increased to $80.02 billion during fiscal year 2021/2022 as compared with $58.38 billion in the preceding fiscal year, according to data released by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).Jul 5, 2022

 

[maithil]

If they invested in Foreign Currency bonds, they will not lose anything unless payment is repudiated at the time of bond maturity. Till now, I am not aware of any such repudiation as that would instantly change the status of Pakistan into Default.

I was talking about Share market/ property which expats are expected to invest in. Any dollar denominated bond ofcourse is safe.