Why waning powers meddle in Asian affairs

[jhungary]

Then let the insane Donald Un take those "military measures", why does he care if China complains or not?

In my view, Donald Un is worse than Fat Kim by far. If he wants a nuclear war then he will find a way to trigger one.

And North Korea is not China's "dog", otherwise why would Fat Kim kill his Uncle and Brother who are (were) both pro-China.

I am not saying Donald Trump wanted Nuclear War, yes, Nuclear War is one of the way they can solve this problem. But why Donald would want a Nuclear War with North Korea?

It's way more effective and way more efficiency to start build up South Korean and Japan military capability to deal with this North Korean Threat, that included unrestricted issue of Military Hardware ala the term with Israel. The rearmament will be huge and it will impact China. Think about it, Japan will expand its Military force and build Aircraft Carrier, increase the size of Air Force and Army, it will be like WW2 all over again but this time, instead of Japanese is building a force to fight America, they are building a force WITH AMERICA help this time. I would say Chinese military is having a hard time to face even half the might of US Navy, now imagine Japanese Navy is every bit as good as US Navy Pacific Fleet? That's because they are using American build equipment.

Also, there is another issue that will certainly irk China, that is the Nuclearization of Asia, both Japan and South Korea wanted Nuclear weapon of their own in the past, it was the America n who vetoed this and refuse to help and in Japanese case, forbid them. The problem is, as this North Korean Fiasco expand, US will (not may, but will most certainly) reconsider letting Japan and South Korea to have Nuclear Weapon. At best, US will transfer their 1400 inactive, older nuclear device to them. At worst, the US will help South Korea and Japan (Not too much in Japanese case as they already have the technology) on their Nuclear Program. Which I don't think it will sit well with the Chinese.

Then there are more gradual effect on a nuclearized North Korea. North Korea will sell their Nuclear Secret in black market. Think about people who may be able to access them? Vietnam can buy them off North Korean, even Xinjiang separatist can buy them if they have enough money, as you say, NK is no longer Chinese dog now, what stopping NK from selling Nuclear Secret to the enemy of Chinese States?

All that, Chinese can cry foul when SK and Japan buy more THAAD or even go nuclear, but there are no one to blame other than the Chinese themselves, it is the Chinese government who allow Kim (Both Kim, Jong-un and Song Il) and while NK is not Chinese's dog now, it was most certainly is when they started this nuclear program, or you are telling me without Chinese help, both directly and indirectly, North Korean can achieve something like this themselves?

I don't believe that at all.

If NK nukes the USA, and America nukes them back, it will be a limited exchange.

If America gets China and Russia involved, the USA won't just lose a few cities, they will lose everything. An easy choice to make.

Oh Dragon, so cute.........I don't think I saw this naïve side of you.

1.) I wasn't talking about US directly nuking China or Russia, I was talking about fall out from US launching ICBM on North Korea soil only.

You cannot stop Fall Out from reaching China if and when US nuke North Korea. Unless you can claiming China can control the weather. There are no defence against Fall Out in a nuclear blast. And since North Korea bordered China, fall out will blown to China in a scale it will kill millions of Chinese, whether China, US, North Korea like it or not.

For instant, Chernobyl disaster is a ground detonation with estimated 100 ton of non-weapon grade enriched uranium (IIRC it was between 50 to 60% enriched), and with the explosion of the reactor being compare to a 200 Kton and the ground burst damage is estimated as the same damage done by Fat Man if they were ground burst on Hiroshima

The fall out on Chernobyl, however, reaches as far as 1200 KM away, where the nuclear power plant in Forsmark, Sweden, which is 1250 km away from Pripyat have registered unacceptable and unsafe dosage of Radiative Fallout at a level the detector lock out all worker working in this Swedish Power Plant. Estiomated 1 million Russian died of cancer and expose to moderate to high level of radiation. And remember that is a 200kt GROUND EXPLOSION over Non-Weapon Grade Uranium.

Let's say US launches 4 Peacemaker ICBM, 4 out of 2400 (which is about 0.16% of US nuclear Arsenal (Is that limited enough for you) A single Peacemaker MX carry 12 W88 Nuclear Warhead, which registered a 650 kton combine power. If the US uses Minutemen III, which carry 3 W87 or W78 Warhead, about 1.2 Megaton per missile.

4 Of these missile will have a combine destruction power of 2.4 to 4.8 Megaton, which is between 12 to 24 times the destruction power of Chernobyl (Which is about 200kton), put into the fact that they are using weapon grade Plutonium, You are looking at 10 to 20 times destruction scale of one of these missile on a single Chernobyl Reactor explosion. And we all know the original exclusion zone (Ground Zero) for Chernobyl is 50 Kilometres, even if we ignore the Ground Detonation minimize fall out effect, All 4 minutemen would have create an Ground Zero of 600 to 1200 Km Fall-out kill radius (not blast radius) and render that area within the 600 - 1200 km unliveable as much as the exclusion zone set by the Russian back in 1980s. And in reality, it would most likely be more because Nuke attack WILL BE A AIR BURST, and with Weapon Grade plutonium, which increase the fissile rate.

Now, let's bring out the maps. With 1200 kilometres kill zones from Pyongyang, which basically cover the whole Liaoning Province (Within 600 kilometre), which in there, alone, have 49 millions inhabitant. And then if we further push the boundary out, we have Tangshan, Beijing, Tianjin and stretch all the way to Shanxi (Shuozhou is about 1120 km from Pyongyang). All of which will be subject to radioactive fall out from US nuking Pyongyang. How many people will be killed in these city just by 4 Minutemen hitting North Korea? YOu are talking about tens of millions if not hundred of millions.

You cannot hit North Korea and did not cause any casualty in China, there are no way this can happen. Just the same as if you nuke Tijuana in Mexico and think you would not kill American living in Texas. That's absurd, The only different between Russia and China in this respect is Russia do not have populous cities in the Far East, China do.

2.) There are no LIMITED Nuclear war to begin with, a nuclear war, no matter how small, will have large consequence, it's not like a border stand off in Doklam, you are talking about killing Millions of American, even WW2 didn't kill that many American (only 400,000 killed), and US Declare an all out war on Japan and Germany, if you think killing millions of American by nuking a few American Cities will not have an all out war, be my guest.

The term Nuclear and Limited is contradicting each other. You cannot have a limited war with nuclear weapon, that is why it was called "Unlimited or Unrestricted thermonuclear response"

As I said above, 4 nuke on 4 different North Korean city will kills millions of Chinese in the ensuring fall out, will China fight a "Limited" war with the US after millions of Chinese were killed by the Radioactive fall out from North Korea?

LOL, wake up to reality please, you are either asking US not to nuke NK after getting nuke, or if US nuke NK, then millions of Chinese will dies in the attack from Radioactive fall out. That is the only Nuclear scenario where it can happen, you cannot have the cake and eat it.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

It is the Chinese government who allow Kim (Both Kim, Jong-un and Song Il) and while NK is not Chinese's dog now, it was most certainly is when they started this nuclear program, or you are telling me without Chinese help, both directly and indirectly, North Korean can achieve something like this themselves?

USA had more ability to "stop" North Korea getting nukes than China did at that time, but the USA chose to focus on Iraq's invisible WMD instead. The USA was the one who "allowed" North Korea to go nuclear.

And yes, nukes and ICBMs are 1960s technology, even North Korea is capable of achieving it.

If any US nuclear attack causes damage to Chinese or Russian citizens on our own soil then there will be a nuclear retaliation. So instead of the USA losing a few major cities, they will be gone from the Earth entirely. I don't believe that they would rather die than swallow the loss of a few cities.

China's position on North Korea is clear. If the USA invades NK then we will uphold our mutual defence treaty and it will be Korean War 2.0, let's see how far Trump's insanity will go. I think Donald Un is much crazier than Fat Kim, in this case Fat Kim is the lesser of two evils.

 

[Raphael]

US is the biggest culprit behind the Korean peninsula crisis. US illegal invasions of and meddling in Iraq, Libya and Syria taught Koreans that there is no justice in the world and that bullies can only be deterred with might. What separates Iraq, Libya and Syria from Korea is that the former all gave up their nuclear weapons programs.

Nuclearization appears to be an unmistakable trend of the times. I'm very concerned that more and more countries are becoming as astute and observant as the Koreans and are realizing the only security against US belligerence is the threat of nuclear hellfire. For example, if the US doesn't abide by its JCPA obligations, and Trump has suggested he won't, Iran won't be so inclined either.

 

[jhungary]

USA had more ability to "stop" North Korea getting nukes than China did at that time, but the USA chose to focus on Iraq's invisible WMD instead. The USA was the one who "allowed" North Korea to go nuclear.

And yes, nukes and ICBMs are 1960s technology, even North Korea is capable of achieving it.

If any US nuclear attack causes damage to Chinese or Russian citizens on our own soil then there will be a nuclear retaliation. So instead of the USA losing a few major cities, they will be gone from the Earth entirely. I don't believe that they would rather die than swallow the loss of a few cities.

China's position on North Korea is clear. If the USA invades NK then we will uphold our mutual defence treaty and it will be Korean War 2.0, let's see how far Trump's insanity will go. I think Donald Un is much crazier than Fat Kim, in this case Fat Kim is the lesser of two evils.

lol, you believe NK will rather nuke US and lose the whole country instead of losing the regime, but you refuse to believe US will risk the whole America when they lose a few cities? LOL... You are talking about nuclear weapon, you cannot be double standard and think "NK is gutsy enough to do that, the US don't have the guts otherwise"

Not reigning in your dog is your problem, it's like you are walking your dog in front of my house, your dog poop in my driveway and when I come out and confront you, you argue it is my fault because I was watching TV and not chasing your dog out when it poop in my driveway?? LOL, what kind of argument is that? What I do with my subordinate is my problem, why I have to care about your dog? Your dog is your responsibility, and if you fail to watch him, that's on you. You keep saying why US did not invade North Korea before they completed the nuclear program? The question is, Why the US need to get involve in the first place? You can't control your dog, then don't cry foul when US start selling THAAD, Aircraft Carrier or even Nuclear Weapon to Japan and South Korea.

You can of course believe what you want, but I can tell you this, you have mistaken US launching First Strike Nuclear attack and US receiving an attack. Because when US receive an Nuclear Attack, the response is AUTOMATED to by-pass the command (POTUS and CHIEF OF STAFF) structure in case they have been taken out and if they were not automated, there will be no response when US got nuked and the Command Structure was taken out. So, the nuclear retaliation is an automated process.

Contrary to many believe, The retaliation system is not manual, which require President and Chief Of Staff input, Only US first strike require POTUS and CS input, and that can only be done via the nuclear football, but in your scenario, NK already nuked US, there are Already a First Strike, may even be a second strike or third strike, by then the USC does not require POTUS and CS input to launch a nuclear attack on the potential enemy. Sub will leave port, E-4 Night watch will launch, so does B-2 and other nuclear asset will be activitated, all were done automatically after the first strike on US soil

So, you can believe what you want, you can believe after NK nuke the US Trump and Un will goes together and sing Kombaya, that is your problem, but a nuclear attack on US will trigger an AUTOMATED response in kind, so this is a fact US will nuke whoever nuke us, as this is an automatic response. That is fact, believe it or not,

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

lol, you believe NK will rather nuke US and lose the whole country instead of losing the regime, but you refuse to believe US will risk the whole America when they lose a few cities? LOL... You are talking about nuclear weapon, you cannot be double standard and think "NK is gutsy enough to do that, the US don't have the guts otherwise"

Not reigning in your dog is your problem, it's like you are walking your dog in front of my house, your dog poop in my driveway and when I come out and confront you, you argue it is my fault because I was watching TV and not chasing your dog out when it poop in my driveway?? LOL, what kind of argument is that? What I do with my subordinate is my problem, why I have to care about your dog? Your dog is your responsibility, and if you fail to watch him, that's on you. You keep saying why US did not invade North Korea before they completed the nuclear program? The question is, Why the US need to get involve in the first place? You can't control your dog, then don't cry foul when US start selling THAAD, Aircraft Carrier or even Nuclear Weapon to Japan and South Korea.

You can of course believe what you want, but I can tell you this, you have mistaken US launching First Strike Nuclear attack and US receiving an attack. Because when US receive an Nuclear Attack, the response is AUTOMATED to by-pass the command (POTUS and CHIEF OF STAFF) structure in case they have been taken out and if they were not automated, there will be no response when US got nuked and the Command Structure was taken out. So, the nuclear retaliation is an automated process.

Contrary to many believe, The retaliation system is not manual, which require President and Chief Of Staff input, Only US first strike require POTUS and CS input, and that can only be done via the nuclear football, but in your scenario, NK already nuked US, there are Already a First Strike, may even be a second strike or third strike, by then the USC does not require POTUS and CS input to launch a nuclear attack on the potential enemy. Sub will leave port, E-4 Night watch will launch, so does B-2 and other nuclear asset will be activitated, all were done automatically after the first strike on US soil

So, you can believe what you want, you can believe after NK nuke the US Trump and Un will goes together and sing Kombaya, that is your problem, but a nuclear attack on US will trigger an AUTOMATED response in kind, so this is a fact US will nuke whoever nuke us, as this is an automatic response. That is fact, believe it or not,

China has no responsibility over North Korea, isn't America the "global policeman" who went into Iraq to stop them getting nukes? Or who sanctioned Iran to stop them getting nukes?

Now with North Korea, the USA can't do anything so they cry about China? Sorry, China's policy is non-intervention in the internal affairs of other countries, if you are looking for the "global policeman" he is missing.

If any nuclear fallout from an American nuke kills Chinese citizens on Chinese territory there will be a full scale nuclear response and America will be gone from the world.

This shows that Fat Kim is not the threat, America under Donald Un is the threat.

 

[jhungary]

US is the biggest culprit behind the Korean peninsula crisis. US illegal invasions of and meddling in Iraq, Libya and Syria taught Koreans that there is no justice in the world and that bullies can only be deterred with might. What separates Iraq, Libya and Syria from Korea is that the former all gave up their nuclear weapons programs.

Nuclearization appears to be an unmistakable trend of the times. I'm very concerned that more and more countries are becoming as astute and observant as the Koreans and are realizing the only security against US belligerence is the threat of nuclear hellfire. For example, if the US doesn't abide by its JCPA obligations, and Trump has suggested he won't, Iran won't be so inclined either.

Yes, enemy of the state should go for Nuclear Power, the problem is, you can't control which enemy of the state to go for nuclear power, how about NK sold Nuclear Schematic to Chinese Separatist, like the xinjiang gang? Would you be happy if Xinjiang separatist have their hand on Nuclear Weapon? LOL

You are funny to blame your own problem to someone else's, let's have a nuclearize world, every terrorist group can have their own nuclear weapon. That's a happy ending for everyone.

 

[jhungary]

China has no responsibility over North Korea, isn't America the "global policeman" who went into Iraq to stop them getting nukes? Or who sanctioned Iran to stop them getting nukes?

Now with North Korea, the USA can't do anything so they cry about China? Sorry, China's policy is non-intervention in the internal affairs of other countries, if you are looking for the "global policeman" he is missing.

If any nuclear fallout from an American nuke kills Chinese citizens on Chinese territory there will be a full scale nuclear response and America will be gone from the world.

This shows that Fat Kim is not the threat, America under Donald Un is the threat.

Non-intervention? Since when? Isn't the reason why North Korea STILL EXIST TODAY Is the result from Chinese intervention?? LOL

What you are saying does not make sense. You want NK to nuke US, but you don't want US to nuke NK, you are talking about a nuclear war, if NK nuke anyone, anyone will nuke NK, and would China and the world wanted to be wipe of the map from something Chinese does not want or do? That's your business

But in the end, China is going to scare more on NK than then American, that is a fact, because, well, China is next to it, and US is 9000 km away. And in the end, it is NK who will led around Chinese like CHinese is their dog, and took on a reverse role, or China risk a global destruction, be prepare to say yes to Kim demand, otherwise they will nuke US and we all know that would be the ending of the world.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Kim demand, otherwise they will nuke US and we all know that would be the ending of the world.

I don't believe it will be the end of the world, I think America's decision makers in Washington would rather lose a few cities to North Korean nukes rather than losing all of America and their own families too.

And clearly, China's leaders don't believe it either. That's why we will still uphold our mutual defence treaty with North Korea in the event of an American first attack, which is China's official position on the matter.

Donald Un and Fat Kim are made for each other. If they want to nuke each other to Hell, who can convince them otherwise?

 

[Raphael]

Yes, enemy of the state should go for Nuclear Power, the problem is, you can't control which enemy of the state to go for nuclear power, how about NK sold Nuclear Schematic to Chinese Separatist, like the xinjiang gang? Would you be happy if Xinjiang separatist have their hand on Nuclear Weapon? LOL

You are funny to blame your own problem to someone else's, let's have a nuclearize world, every terrorist group can have their own nuclear weapon. That's a happy ending for everyone.

Seems you misunderstand. I'm not happy about global nuclear proliferation. In fact, it concerns me very much. I'm disappointed that belligerent US policy has precipitated this crisis, by teaching all US adversaries that one can only have any semblance of security when one has nuclear weapons to keep US forces at bay.

 

[gambit]

What you are saying does not make sense.

What else is new from the Chinese camp ?

We are not talking about a pissing contest on who got the biggest ship or the fastest jet. This is about a troublemaker that is literally right on China's doorstep and he is advocating China do nothing based upon a facade of 'non-intervention' policy that the Chinese government itself does not keep. It really is amazing that this guy cannot see the reality that if the US militarily intervene in NKR, his China will be dragged into the mix whether he likes it or not. He blamed US for NKR's nuclear weapons program because we are busy in the ME. What kind of warped thinking is that ?

Seems you misunderstand. I'm not happy about global nuclear proliferation. In fact, it concerns me very much. I'm disappointed that belligerent US policy has precipitated this crisis, by teaching all US adversaries that one can only have any semblance of security when one has nuclear weapons to keep US forces at bay.

And what lessons are China 'teaching' minor Asian countries regarding the SCS ?

 

[padamchen]

What else is new from the Chinese camp ?

We are not talking about a pissing contest on who got the biggest ship or the fastest jet. This is about a troublemaker that is literally right on China's doorstep and he is advocating China do nothing based upon a facade of 'non-intervention' policy that the Chinese government itself does not keep. It really is amazing that this guy cannot see the reality that if the US militarily intervene in NKR, his China will be dragged into the mix whether he likes it or not. He blamed US for NKR's nuclear weapons program because we are busy in the ME. What kind of warped thinking is that ?


And what lessons are China 'teaching' minor Asian countries regarding the SCS ?

There will be no dragging sir.

I think you as US military know fully well that any wargaming regarding NK leads to China getting nuked immediately.

Not retaliatory strikes.

Let's not play games here @Chinese-Dragon ... you're better than that.

Cheers, Doc

 

[Raphael]

And what lessons are China 'teaching' minor Asian countries regarding the SCS ?

Normally I wouldn't reward disingenuous lines of questioning that go off-topic by replying, but I'll humor you. China's SCS policy taught other states the paramount importance of respecting China's territorial integrity. It's the no. 1 rule of Asia, higher than all others. Hence the Philippines flipped its geopolitical orbit and even your erstwhile homeland, which you abandoned after finding refuge elsewhere, has learned to be more tractable.

 

[gambit]

...we will still uphold our mutual defence treaty with North Korea in the event of an American first attack, which is China's official position on the matter.

Does that mean China will attack CONUS ? Japan ? South Korea ?

CONUS, no. JPN and SKR, possible, but not probable.

You better believe it that the Pentagon already have plans in the event that the PLA will fight US even to the extent that China will attack CONUS with nuclear weapons, which is the only way China can attack CONUS. In that event, China will be the cause of that nuclear end of the world scenario.

But if China will fight US over the Korean peninsula, the PLA will lose and that would mean the end of the Chinese military dominance over Asia.

Normally I wouldn't reward disingenuous lines of questioning that go off-topic, but I'll humor you. China's SCS policy taught other states the paramount importance of respecting China's territorial integrity. It's the no. 1 rule of Asia, higher than all others. Hence the Philippines flipped its geopolitical orbit and even your erstwhile homeland, which you abandoned after finding refuge elsewhere, has learned to be more tractable.

Then it looks like you missed the point, which was about 'teaching lessons'. China have no compunction about 'teaching lessons', especially when it benefits her at the expense of others. Since you are here to speak for China, you have no moral standing to lecture to US about the same.

 

[Raphael]

Then it looks like you missed the point, which was about 'teaching lessons'. China have no compunction about 'teaching lessons', especially when it benefits her at the expense of others. Since you are here to speak for China, you have no moral standing to lecture to US about the same.

Seems you have trouble addressing the irrefutable substance of my observation, so you have resorted to attacking my 'standing' instead. That's a textbook example of the tu quoque logical fallacy.

The reality is I don't need standing to point out the obvious truth. 1+1=2, no matter who says it. Same with US culpability for inciting nuclear proliferation in Korea and elsewhere globally.

 

[Place Of Space]

Because Asian economoy is one of the fastest growing group, meddling in Asian affairs can get more or less benefits.