Why Vietnam Will Be the Next Nuclear State

[BoQ77]

Sure we can be a nuclear state.

 

[mike2000]

I am all for a nuclear weapons free world. But China does not have good will towards Viet Nam. China have never respected Viet Nam and that contempt came from the historical attitude of Chinese towards Vietnamese, a people who effectively refused to identify themselves with China despite long history and cultural ties with Chinese. My family came from North Viet Nam and have Chinese ancestry. But we have no desire to make that ancestry the defining factor of who we are: Vietnamese.

So as much as I want a nuclear weapons free world, I want the survival of Viet Nam as a country and as a people even more. Viet Nam should either:

- Have an alliance with the US that contains a mutual defense treaty.

...Or...

- Develop an indigenous nuclear weapons program.

Very well said Gambit. I have been pointing out the same thing on here before, but your Vietnamese brothers still seem to be living their romance with Soviet Russia and are scared to ally with the U.S due to 'Russian sensibilities'. Lol They don't know that Russia has better relations/global interests with China. Hence there won't be any support from Moscow when push comes to shove (like the recent oil rig incident)

Vietnams interests will be better served allying with the U.S and forgetting about Russia (who is in decline anyway and will be even more so a decade from now). Its only by doing this that Vietnam can make China take note and be more cautious about taking any aggressive steps towards it.

As for your second point. I'm not sure, Vietnam going nuclear will be a good move tbh, it will alarm the international ccommunit and Vietnam neighbours as well(Myanmar, Cambodia, Thailand, and other ASEAN members). This will all but isolate Vietnam again from the rest of the world, that's without talking about sanctions from the west(yes even the U.S will join in this case), dry out of FDI, and criple the country's economy. . So if anything it will help China and bring Vietnam back decades behind, wiping out all the goodwill/progress the country have made. So I think that will be a bad move bro.

 

[extra terrestrial]

Not surprising! If Burma, which is far inferior to Vietnam in technological know how and diplomatic influence, can have their nuclear program active, why not Vietnam?

Nobody is interested in any robust actions against Burma, same will be the case against Vietnam!

 

[cnleio]

They just living in their dreams, especially Vietnamese wish Russian or American can help them to develop Nuclear Power.

The ignorant person fears nothing.

 

[somsak]

Thailand can be nuclear state too.

 

[Rechoice]

Thailand can be nuclear state too.

Thailand has US is yur ally.

Vietnam is alone, we have to do something to protect us from our enemy's attack.

 

[DejanSRB]

Vietnams interests will be better served allying with the U.S and forgetting about Russia (who is in decline anyway and will be even more so a decade from now)

It is very funny to see desperate British how defend his father pride.
After Scotland gets independence,English interests will be put a side,even today England dont have captability to defend Folkland islands from Argentina without US help.You must realize that GB in future will play minor role even in Europe,along Spain,Portugal and Poland.
I predict that some third side will help Argentina with weapons just to retake the Folklands and desecrate old British glory.

And dont worry for Russia.
They lost empire in 1919,then they make USSR and win WW2 singlehanded.
They lost second empire and superpower USSR,and today they arming themselves with more money then GB who exist in last 300 years.
When you say that they are declining power,you just have info from 20 years ago,but reality shows that mayor of free countries in World see Russia as saviour,when in comparation,even Scots want to escape sunking ship called GB.
But who cares! God save GB,maybe not all GB but leftovers.

 

[mike2000]

It is very funny to see desperate British how defend his father pride.
After Scotland gets independence,English interests will be put a side,even today England dont have captability to defend Folkland islands from Argentina without US help.You must realize that GB in future will play minor role even in Europe,along Spain,Portugal and Poland.
I predict that some third side will help Argentina with weapons just to retake the Folklands and desecrate old British glory.

And dont worry for Russia.
They lost empire in 1919,then they make USSR and win WW2 singlehanded.
They lost second empire and superpower USSR,and today they arming themselves with more money then GB who exist in last 300 years.
When you say that they are declining power,you just have info from 20 years ago,but reality shows that mayor of free countries in World see Russia as saviour,when in comparation,even Scots want to escape sunking ship called GB.
But who cares! God save GB,maybe not all GB but leftovers.

Lool don't get emotional mate. I was just making a point of what I think will be the best solution for Vietnam s interests.
I don't see why you bring Britain into the discussion (people only do that when they don't have much to say to counter an argument).

Anyway as I said before, Russia is in relative decline, not because it isn't trying hard enough or whatever , but simply because other emerging countries are growing much more faster than Russia, in fact even a fully developed country like the U.S is growing more or same rate as Russia. So in less than a decade or two from now expect to see countries like India, Indonesia and even Turkey overtake Russia economically. Russia relies too much on oil/gas and its soviet era weapons for growth, all of which are not sustainable/healthy for a big country in the long run. When countries become more self sufficient in arms read China , India, and other developing countries, Russia will have even less money/revenue to derive from its arms exports, same with oil and gas whose prices tend to fluctuate alot and they will be less relevant in coming decades as other renewable energy sources replace those.

So i'm not bashing Russia,simply making a point.They have to invest more in science and technology, manufacturing, education etc.

As for Britain. Well we are a real democracy, reason we give people choice to choose if they want to remain part of us or not. Not many countries in the world can do that, not even democracies, much less autocratic countries. When can we expect to see such a referendum in China? Never I suppose.

We will still remain relevant for a longgg time to come no Matter what, we are still the global financial capital of the world (well ,with new york) and our language is defacto the world's language, spoken all over the world, and we still have the best universities and service industries, banking institutions in the world.
The day I see wealthy corrupt Chinese, Russians, Indian officials stop sending their children to live and study in England, invest and emmigrate here then I will know those countries are better than ours. But until then, keep thinking we are irrelevant.

On another note. We(Rolls Royce)can help you develop a reliable engine if you wish.

I do admire the fact that you didn't indulge in personal attacks though. Kudos to that.

 

[DejanSRB]

I do admire the fact that you didn't indulge in personal attacks though. Kudos to that.

We are adults.and btw. I am not a Russian.

As for Russia,I was a wittnes of collapse of USSR,and in 90s Russia was third world country,unimaginably corrupcy,and mess.
After 90s,Russia cant be in decline,Russia today spend 100 billion on its army,it have 2/3 all energy on this planet.Russian economic growth was always 3.5-7 % from 2003 to 2012,only 2013 was a bad year with only 3 %,today Russia is in reccesion,but why?Becouse EU sanction.This sanctions hurt both EU and Russia,but Russia more,becouse EU have bigger economy.

I take a trip every 3 months to Kazahstan,Mongolia,Russia and Belorus.and no offense but you dont have correct info about post Yeltsin Russia.

You are English,you mother language in English,then take a Samuel P Huntington "Clash of Civilizations" or Kissinger works about Post Cold War order.
and you will find that that geopoliticians find Russia as core member of new multipolar world.

 

[somsak]

Thailand has US is yur ally.

Vietnam is alone, we have to do something to protect us from our enemy's attack.

That's not a reason.

 

[mike2000]

We are adults.and btw. I am not a Russian.

As for Russia,I was a wittnes of collapse of USSR,and in 90s Russia was third world country,unimaginably corrupcy,and mess.
After 90s,Russia cant be in decline,Russia today spend 100 billion on its army,it have 2/3 all energy on this planet.Russian economic growth was always 3.5-7 % from 2003 to 2012,only 2013 was a bad year with only 3 %,today Russia is in reccesion,but why?Becouse EU sanction.This sanctions hurt both EU and Russia,but Russia more,becouse EU have bigger economy.

I take a trip every 3 months to Kazahstan,Mongolia,Russia and Belorus.and no offense but you dont have correct info about post Yeltsin Russia.

You are English,you mother language in English,then take a Samuel P Huntington "Clash of Civilizations" or Kissinger works about Post Cold War order.
and you will find that that geopoliticians find Russia as core member of new multipolar world.

Lool I know we are all adults here bro. But tell that to other members. Lol. 95% of members here always tend to indulge in personal attacks/name calling. Lol
Anyway good to know you don't fall under such category. I appreciate that.

Coming to topic. Yea its true Russia was even in more mess after soviet union collapse, but it was increase in oil prices that helped Russia stabilise , not Putin. He was lucky to just come at a time oil prices were booming. This helped him to use those to stabilize Russia finances (I give him some credit for this one). Without such sharp oil price increases then he wouldn't have been able to do so at all.

Even so, oil/gas has caused Russia to be too dependent on it for survival. Ask yourself today , if Russia's oil and gas disappears/dries up now. What do you think Russia will become? It will almost collapse/fall in sharp decline, since it doesn't produce much that can replace the loss in oil revenues. Sooil/gas can be a blessing and curse at the same time IMO , if not well utilised.

You say Russia spends 100billion on its army(the figure should be 65 billion) . that shows you Russia still overspends on its military. For example Chinas economy is more than 4 soon 5 times bigger than Russia's , yet it spends just about twice as much as Russia on its military (despite having much more foreign reserve/cash than Russia's entire GDP) . Similarly, Japan who has more than twice Russia's GDP spends way less than Russia on its military (despite having a muh more developed economy/industry than russia)etc... I just hope Russia doesn't once again fall into the same trap it fell during the soviet union, where it spent too much on its military, neglecting other critical/more important sectors.
Time will tell.

 

[Viet]

Very well said Gambit. I have been pointing out the same thing on here before, but your Vietnamese brothers still seem to be living their romance with Soviet Russia and are scared to ally with the U.S due to 'Russian sensibilities'. Lol They don't know that Russia has better relations/global interests with China. Hence there won't be any support from Moscow when push comes to shove (like the recent oil rig incident)

Vietnams interests will be better served allying with the U.S and forgetting about Russia (who is in decline anyway and will be even more so a decade from now). Its only by doing this that Vietnam can make China take note and be more cautious about taking any aggressive steps towards it.

As for your second point. I'm not sure, Vietnam going nuclear will be a good move tbh, it will alarm the international ccommunit and Vietnam neighbours as well(Myanmar, Cambodia, Thailand, and other ASEAN members). This will all but isolate Vietnam again from the rest of the world, that's without talking about sanctions from the west(yes even the U.S will join in this case), dry out of FDI, and criple the country's economy. . So if anything it will help China and bring Vietnam back decades behind, wiping out all the goodwill/progress the country have made. So I think that will be a bad move bro.

mike, as southern vietnamese, I have no problem at all to see Vietnam to ally with America and Japan. most southern vietnamese would think the same, I bet. my father served in the south vietnamese navy, that fought side by side with America during the war. my countrymen in the north see thing differently of course, they would rather see our country with Russia.

So we are familar with one thing or the other. I think Russia is not an option, because it relies on China for money, investment and friendship. so it is only America.

the problem is, before making any decision, be alignment with a superpower or developing indigenous nuclear weapon program, we need to consider possible reactions of China and Russia. and that is somewhat unpredictable.

worst case scenario: Russia stops all relationships, and China starts an invasion to test America. we face economic sanctions.

besides, Vietnam is a bit sceptical about alignment. in 1979, China started the ground invasion because it feared a two front war. the Soviets did not intervene. in 1974, China started the invasion of Paracels, the US did not intervene, either. in both cases, Vietnam had defence treaties with the Soviet and America. You see, back then our defence treaties were not much worth. China has nuclear weapons, that hindered the superpowers to intervene in favor of Vietnam. Nobody wanted to risk a nuclear winter.

nevertherless, I believe sooner or later, we will face the decision to alignment and nuclear armament.

 

[tonyget]

China has pledged not to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear state under any circumstances

 

[SirHatesALot]

China has pledged not to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear state under any circumstances

That is irrelevant,since china's conventional superiority is enough to annihilate Vietnam.

 

[tranquilium]

China has pledged not to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear state under any circumstances

Correction, China pledged to not use nuclear strike first. There are many additional notes on the policy as well. For example, attacking or attempts attack on strategic Chinese target, such as three gorge dam, is treated as a nuclear threat (though in three gorge dam's case, anything that can actually harm the dam would be at least megaton range).