Why the Taliban wont succeed in Afghanistan now!

[A-Team]

A good piece, worth reading!



Why the Taliban won’t succeed in Afghanistan now - DAWN.COM

 

[farhan_9909]

I do agree they hold No chance against ANA.

But i would disagree about the 2nd part of World would not abandon Afghanistan.

Afghanistan needs to stand on its own.And america has a habit of abandoning countries.recent example is the iraq.

THe best Afghanistan could do is to secure atleast 10billion aid per year from the world community till 2020

*Invest in the local resources
*with whatever mean take the GDP growth rate to double digit
*Set a target at more than 60-70billion dollars GDP till 2020 or 100billion dollars if possible
*Increase the ANA strength to 6lac.or atleast 5lac
*invest in education and boost the literacy rate to atleast 70% by 2020(yes this is very much possible under a honest leader)
*improve relations with Both Pakistan and Iran.Force india to invest more and more into Afghanistan.
*If possible strike a deal with india to open a branch of IIT in Kabul with the staff and the selection procedure borrowed from india atleast till 2020
*invest in industrilzation



If all the above are completed till 2020.Beyond 2020 i see a independent Afghanistan without any need of any help from any other country

 

[Kompromat]

@farhan_9909

WRONG.

Peace in Afghanistan depends on the Afghan govt. Its not about ANA vs Taliban, its about if the upcoming Afghan govt wants peace or wants more of the same. If they allow Afghanistan to become 'INS - Afghanistan' to facilitate the Hindu Bania's proxy war on our soil,through its 18 consulates in Afghanistan, they most definitely would be choosing more of the same again.

Pakistan has facilitated 3 serious attempts to broker peace in Afghanistan, Peshawar Declaration, Islamabad Declaration, Qatar process. Hindustan wants to see the last one fail in order to justify its diminishing footprint as Pakistan plays a gambit by replacing them with the Chinese as the largest investors in A'stan in the future, therefore denying them any major presence.

Pakistan is also mobilizing the GCC to come and invest there in order to dilute the Hindustani economic footprint there. Should this succeed, Hindustani leverage will diminish. They will also try to screw with the upcoming Afghan elections to bring in someone who does their bidding so that they can pull 'Chanakya' on Pakistan.

If Afghans decide to play a tool for the Hindu bania elite of Bhaarat to risk the freedom and liberty of their kins, 'there shall be a price involved as a consequence' of that fateful decision.


Best Regards.

 

[T-123456]

I hope i'm wrong but i disagree,i dont think the Afghan Armed forces or police is ready for the job
Even if they would be ready,is Karzai the man for the job?
Never seen Karzai show any strength,charisma,posture etc.
My guess,as soon as NATO leaves,the Taliban will gain strength or at least will try to topple the government(90% success rate within a year).
As i made clear,its just my opinion.

 

[1971+]

Pakistan has to forego it's mentality of using Afghanistan as it's backyard for strategic depth. It's only Pakistani backed Taliban which is barrier between Afghanistan and it's growth meanwhile Afghanistan had 10% annual growth since 2002 ie. when Pakistan's imprint in Afghanistan started to fade away.

It's isn't Pakistan which is mobilizing GCC in Afghanistan , if they were so capable then they would have mobilized it for their country first.Anyway more countries having stake in Afghanistan will only help the war torn country in stabilizing more quickly.

I hope i'm wrong but i disagree,i dont think the Afghan Armed forces or police is ready for the job
Even if they would be ready,is Karzai the man for the job?
Never seen Karzai show any strength,charisma,posture etc.
My guess,as soon as NATO leaves,the Taliban will gain strength or at least will try to topple the government(90% success rate within a year).
As i made clear,its just my opinion.

Kargai will go after elections this December.

 

[Zarvan]

I do agree they hold No chance against ANA.

But i would disagree about the 2nd part of World would not abandon Afghanistan.

Afghanistan needs to stand on its own.And america has a habit of abandoning countries.recent example is the iraq.

THe best Afghanistan could do is to secure atleast 10billion aid per year from the world community till 2020

*Invest in the local resources
*with whatever mean take the GDP growth rate to double digit
*Set a target at more than 60-70billion dollars GDP till 2020 or 100billion dollars if possible
*Increase the ANA strength to 6lac.or atleast 5lac
*invest in education and boost the literacy rate to atleast 70% by 2020(yes this is very much possible under a honest leader)
*improve relations with Both Pakistan and Iran.Force india to invest more and more into Afghanistan.
*If possible strike a deal with india to open a branch of IIT in Kabul with the staff and the selection procedure borrowed from india atleast till 2020
*invest in industrilzation



If all the above are completed till 2020.Beyond 2020 i see a independent Afghanistan without any need of any help from any other country

Mr this ANA doesn't stand a chance against Taliban the moment USA runs away many off them would either surrender or join Taliban Mr and Taliban would be in power really soon

 

[SQ8]

The Author is correct that Pakistan cannot do(what it should have done in the 90's) in Afghanistan , i.e. make it a complete vassal state.
That being said, the author has put up fairly piecemeal arguments on the Taliban's alleged impotency and forgets that while they may not take over Afghanistan, they are crucial to keep it running.

 

[onionkiller]

friends there is America, Russia, Iran,India,china factor also in Afghanistan's peace process. Pakistan cant support Talibans as they did in past, bcoz imo Pakistan control only very few talibans. all know main groups of Taliban are against Pakistan now. i dnt understand why pakistan dnt want Peace in Aghanistan ?

 

[Partharjun]

Which is why it is very likely that the Taliban will turn towards Pakistan, fueling a full scale civil war between the Sharia supporters and the "Modernists".

 

[That Guy]

The thing is the taliban don't have to succeed, they just have to not fail and make sure their Afghan government doesn't succeed. If they can do that, they'll have won.

Then again, it's easier said than done for both sides. Will the taliban succeed though? I don't think anyone wants them to, but only time will tell.

 

[pakistani342]

I must say that I was dismayed to find the article was written poorly - the English I felt was lacking in places and the thought train was disjoint. I guess Dawn's editorial standards have fallen.

Some random notes:

1.
The realities of 2013 are, however, completely different. Each and every power on earth now has a stake in Afghanistan.


I mean seriously! The popular interest in the Afghan War has waned - this is a common lament amongst the champions of the Afghan war in the West. Western governments want out of Afghanistan - the problem is they can't find an exit they like.

The world repents abandoning the country in the 1990s. Terrorism has shifted security paradigms and redefined response strategies across the globe. The world wants a stable Afghanistan and is willing to make efforts for that. "


The Afghan war has been overcome by events: The crisis in the middle east, terror in Africa, etc. Afghanistan is, as it was two decades ago a dusty place far away in the Western consciousness.

2.
China is desperate for Afghanistan’s mineral resources.


desperate? -- I suspect that's a tad strong no?

It is investing $3.5 billion in the Mes Aynak copper field, south of Kabul. The project had started in 2008 and it is likely to go into production in the coming months as the biggest ever foreign investment in Afghanistan’s history. China is also investing in exploring gas and oil in the Amu River Basin area.


Ahhhm, perhaps the author has not heard that these projects are largely on hold and that China is trying to renegotiate the terms for Mes Aynak - India has also scaled back her plans for Haji Gak.

Afghanistan’s hidden wealth is high in demand in the fast growing economies of both, India and China. They actually cannot afford to leave these untapped and this is going to play out as a new determinant in Afghan politics.


More hyperbole ??? India and China were doing fine without Afghan minerals, I suspect they will survive without access to them.

3.
They were hyper active and super efficient.

They=the Taliban - he's lost me here really, hyper active ?

4.
Aside from some of these humorous diversions the Author misses the main point that Afghanistan's troubles are primarily internal and not external as the Afghans like to believe. Remember: Daud Khan, Amin, Taraki, etc. Now: The Karzai Clan, etc. Afghanistan will in all likelihood continue to buffet from these internal strains.

5.
And to agree with @That Guy, the Taliban really don't have to win, I'm no military strategist but I think the Taliban simply have to deny the Afghan state space - for example their brethren, the TTP seems to be doing fine against the much more powerful state of Pakistan.

 

[Cherokee]

@farhan_9909

WRONG.

Peace in Afghanistan depends on the Afghan govt. Its not about ANA vs Taliban, its about if the upcoming Afghan govt wants peace or wants more of the same. If they allow Afghanistan to become 'INS - Afghanistan' to facilitate the Hindu Bania's proxy war on our soil,through its 18 consulates in Afghanistan, they most definitely would be choosing more of the same again.

Pakistan has facilitated 3 serious attempts to broker peace in Afghanistan, Peshawar Declaration, Islamabad Declaration, Qatar process. Hindustan wants to see the last one fail in order to justify its diminishing footprint as Pakistan plays a gambit by replacing them with the Chinese as the largest investors in A'stan in the future, therefore denying them any major presence.

Pakistan is also mobilizing the GCC to come and invest there in order to dilute the Hindustani economic footprint there. Should this succeed, Hindustani leverage will diminish. They will also try to screw with the upcoming Afghan elections to bring in someone who does their bidding so that they can pull 'Chanakya' on Pakistan.

If Afghans decide to play a tool for the Hindu bania elite of Bhaarat to risk the freedom and liberty of their kins, 'there shall be a price involved as a consequence' of that fateful decision.


Best Regards.

The illiterate molvi inside Qazi Aeronaut has awakened .

 

[Kompromat]

The illiterate molvi inside Qazi Aeronaut has awakened .

Welcome back cherookee

 

[Cherokee]

Welcome back cherookee

Thanks .

 

[Partharjun]

When Pakistan cannot control Taliban inside their own country, it is the height of wishful thinking to control them in Afghanistan.

Rather, Taliban controlling Pakistan is far more likely.