I see, more war mongering. More pride. More taunting.
I tell ya, even if Pakistan disbands its army, navy, and air force, signs the CTBT unilaterally, declares nuclear non-first use ... as long as it holds onto a few hundred kilos of working condition fissile material, India will not "defeat" that country under essentially any circumstances even if Pakistan gets provocative, which I sure hope not.
Why? Of course you guys know why. It has little to do with Pakistan's role in Afghanistan or China's support.
Simply, Uncle won't allow it. I know Pakistanis are "touchy" - understandbly so I might add - about its perceived reputation on "nuclear safety".
But this perception is precisely Pakistan's priceless strategic asset. In North Korea, at least there is a theoretical possibility of outside forces "securing" the country's fissile material if the stakes are deemed high enough.
Given Pakistan's "uniqueness", particularly the neighbourhood, there is no one to secure the fissile material unless Pakistan secures it.
There is no need to elaborate on this any further. And people are not blind to the same calculus applicable in Iran's quest for fissile material. IMHO the range of Iran's missiles is largely impertinent.
The bottom line in the foreseeable future: I can hardly think of a scenario where India will be permitted (by you know who) to even appearto "defeat" Pakistan. Should Pakistan provoke something, India would at most be "allowed" to retaliate in proportion.
And even that "privilege" is far from guaranteed.
Post 2008 Mumbai we saw clear and incontrovertible proof. It wasn't that India stayed its hands out of "chivalry". Simply the choice was dictated, again you know by who.
And China had nothing to do with it, and couldn't have anything to do with it even if it wanted to.
By the same token, we know RAW or any other "agencies" are not permitted to destabilized Balochistan. Pakistan is simply using them as an excuse to carry out "de-tribalization" of volatile regions.
So what's my conclusion? It is in India's interest to be the "big man" vis-a-vis Pakistan. Don't be stupid like Israel in Palestine or China with Taiwan. The more you feel righteous, the more you give outsiders leverage.
TMD can only deter states such as North Korea who is locked in a pocket.
BTW speaking of China, it will be left without a choice but to de-escalate with India once India settles down with Pakistan.
And not before even if China wanted to.
Why so? Because even a China at its most Machiavellian realizes that it holds very little "leverage" in the India-Pakistan rapprochement. In contrast, Pakistan holds a virtual veto in any thaw between China and India.
Why is that? In this day and age, Pakistan is not just PRC's "friend", Pakistan is PRC's "only friend". After PRC riled up Kim by going over his head to make nice with South Korea, it is still dealing with the fallout.
Therefore it is very unlikely to repeat that bungle again with Pakistan.
This is a view shared by some: China's northern and eastern borderlands are seemingly "yesterday"; but China's western and sounthern boders are where its future lies.
