Why Pakistan can not ignore Afghanistan

[truthseer]

"No man is an island."

The same saying holds true for countries. Afghanistan is a major headache for Pakistan, and has been since its existence, and yet, Pakistan can not ignore them. Some of the suggseted solutions have included a border wall (Unfeasible economically and geographically), greater border patrol (Which would leave the east open, or require greater recruitment and investment) and then just leaving them alone.

Sadly, no country can totally seal off another country. Even Trump is finding out that the US can't just build a wall to completely seal off US from Mexico. For Pakistan and Afghanistan, it's an even more hopeless case, with entire communities living on the border, and huge mountains being almost impossible to block and patrol.

For these reasons, we can't ignore Afghanistan. Whether it be smugglers, enemy agents, or just average Afghanis, they will find a way through whatever obstacle we try to erect. And let's be honest, it won't be the average, non-criminal elements that will get through with greater patrols, but the smugglers and the enemy agents.

Pakistan will soon have to command greater control over the area, especially as US troops look to finally be withdrawing. The current Afghan government is anti-Pakistan, but there are many parties that would be more willing to Pakistan control. Once US troops leave, it's more than likely ISIS will sweep through, rather than the Afghan Taliban and that is something we must not allow.

We can not ignore Afghanistan. Many liberals and conservatives alike feel we should rid ourselves of any thought of the place, and look to seal it off. History shows that this is impossible. We need to cultivate a way to bend Afghanistan to our side. We can not afford to aggressively patrol two borders. We need to find a way to get Afghanistan on our side. It's our biggest source of trouble this past decade.

@HttpError below has given excellent suggestion of a buffer zone in Afghanistan, which will allow Afghans aligned with our interests to be able to help defend themselves and our area.

Thoughts?

 

[HttpError]

In my opinion, Afghanistan (Northern-alliance) would always remain hostile towards Pakistan. They will be getting foreign funding from Anti-Pakistani sources. Pakistan needs to set up a buffer zone. We should support Pushtoon Taliban politically, economically, and militarily. They should be armed to teeth, so they can repel any attack from those northern-alliance's warlords. In return, Pakistan will have warm relationship with these Afghan Pushtoons. They can also have visa-free access to Pakistan.

 

[truthseer]

In my opinion, Afghanistan (Northern-alliance) would always remain hostile towards Pakistan. They will be getting foreign funding from Anti-Pakistani sources. Pakistan needs to set up a buffer zone. We should support Pushtoon Taliban politically, economically, and militarily. They should be armed to teeth, so they can repel any attack from those northern-alliance's warlords. In return, Pakistan will have warm relationship with these Afghan Pushtoons. They can also have visa-free access to Pakistan.

Buffer zone will need to be in Afghanistan definitely. This is one very possible solution, but we will need to be bold and give that buffer zone in Afghanistan complete support. We can't have an efficient border with said buffer zone at all, as you know, because of geographical realities but that buffer zone would be the best possible flat border for us.

Added you to OP as well

 

[VCheng]

Thoughts

Strategic Depth Revisited v2.0. And this will be just as futile to pursue as the first time around, in my view.

 

[TMA]

In my opinion, Afghanistan (Northern-alliance) would always remain hostile towards Pakistan. They will be getting foreign funding from Anti-Pakistani sources. Pakistan needs to set up a buffer zone. We should support Pushtoon Taliban politically, economically, and militarily. They should be armed to teeth, so they can repel any attack from those northern-alliance's warlords. In return, Pakistan will have warm relationship with these Afghan Pushtoons. They can also have visa-free access to Pakistan.

Many of the Afghan Afghans are also anti Pakistan, not just the NA guys.
It is not that simple.

 

[Umair Nawaz]

Pakistan CAN! Allah has made us too powerful and strong thankfully!

 

[araz]

"No man is an island."

The same saying holds true for countries. Afghanistan is a major headache for Pakistan, and has been since its existence, and yet, Pakistan can not ignore them. Some of the suggseted solutions have included a border wall (Unfeasible economically and geographically), greater border patrol (Which would leave the east open, or require greater recruitment and investment) and then just leaving them alone.

Sadly, no country can totally seal off another country. Even Trump is finding out that the US can't just build a wall to completely seal off US from Mexico. For Pakistan and Afghanistan, it's an even more hopeless case, with entire communities living on the border, and huge mountains being almost impossible to block and patrol.

For these reasons, we can't ignore Afghanistan. Whether it be smugglers, enemy agents, or just average Afghanis, they will find a way through whatever obstacle we try to erect. And let's be honest, it won't be the average, non-criminal elements that will get through with greater patrols, but the smugglers and the enemy agents.

Pakistan will soon have to command greater control over the area, especially as US troops look to finally be withdrawing. The current Afghan government is anti-Pakistan, but there are many parties that would be more willing to Pakistan control. Once US troops leave, it's more than likely ISIS will sweep through, rather than the Afghan Taliban and that is something we must not allow.

We can not ignore Afghanistan. Many liberals and conservatives alike feel we should rid ourselves of any thought of the place, and look to seal it off. History shows that this is impossible. We need to cultivate a way to bend Afghanistan to our side. We can not afford to aggressively patrol two borders. We need to find a way to get Afghanistan on our side. It's our biggest source of trouble this past decade.

@HttpError below has given excellent suggestion of a buffer zone in Afghanistan, which will allow Afghans aligned with our interests to be able to help defend themselves and our area.

Thoughts?

A couple of quick thoughts. PA has almost finished fencing the border and entry and exit points are controlled to some extent. Smuggling will go on as it relies on the "good will" of the border policing agencies. However if arms ingress can be controlled effectively it will ease our inland insurgency headache to a great extent.
With 80k soldiers already committed the Western front has not been ignored. It has taken time but capacity is now built up and I doubt it will be abandoned.
However peace in Afghanistan is imperative for peace in Pakistan for the simple reason that we are related to ties of kinsmanship as families of Pashtuns live on both sides of the divide. This effectively means that unrest will cause displacement and these will not be refused on humanitarian grounds. This-will continue to remain a burden. Plus if these people are not given jobs and security then it will rekindle unrest. So from this perspective there is a need to establish/ help establish peace in Afghanistan. Whether this will allow the 3.5million of Afghans settled in Paklands for 3 decades+to return is another discussion.
A

 

[araz]

Adding to my earlier post I think the fencing should now extend across the Pak Iran border as well. This will alleviate some of the pressures from the Baluchistan situation as well.

 

[ziaulislam]

Adding to my earlier post I think the fencing should now extend across the Pak Iran border as well. This will alleviate some of the pressures from the Baluchistan situation as well.

financing will be an issue

once USA leaves Afghanistan there will be a vacum of 48b dollars per annum created..how will Afghanistan adjust to that more opium..pakistan is big market for opium already and it will extend

 

[araz]

financing will be an issue

once USA leaves Afghanistan there will be a vacum of 48b dollars per annum created..how will Afghanistan adjust to that more opium..pakistan is big market for opium already and it will extend

Finance has always been quoted as a problem with Regards to erecting the fence. However when push came to shove we found the money. I think the fence needs to be erected to monitor the very situation should the US decide(I still think it is unlikely) to vacate Afghanistan. The more urgent need would be the influx of people due to fighting which will ensue. Opium we grow enough of ourselves so a little bit more is not going to be a problem. It is an export commodity if you know what I mean and will be exported.
A

 

[ziaulislam]

Finance has always been quoted as a problem with Regards to erecting the fence. However when push came to shove we found the money. I think the fence needs to be erected to monitor the very situation should the US decide(I still think it is unlikely) to vacate Afghanistan. The more urgent need would be the influx of people due to fighting which will ensue. Opium we grow enough of ourselves so a little bit more is not going to be a problem. It is an export commodity if you know what I mean and will be exported.
A

Political environment is shapping for USA to leave ...i wont be surprise if donald trumps with draws just before election

 

[araz]

Political environment is shapping for USA to leave ...i wont be surprise if donald trumps with draws just before election

I think we need to wait and see. Afghanistan is a Strategic asset of the US govt due to its geostrateguc location. I do not think they will vacate it completely. However I agree miltary footprint might reduce to a smaller size of advisors and some understanding from Taliban these will not be moved/harmed.
A

 

[ziaulislam]

I think we need to wait and see. Afghanistan is a Strategic asset of the US govt due to its geostrateguc location. I do not think they will vacate it completely. However I agree miltary footprint might reduce to a smaller size of advisors and some understanding from Taliban these will not be moved/harmed.
A

Let me put it this way. Trump will loose his reselection if he doesnt with draws ..the perception that he doesnt follow deep state will be shattered amongst his core followers(10 %usa population)

In era where turn out has been around 25-30% this is the reason why he won

USA population is becoming poorer and poorer(as wealth swings into higjer higher bracket population) this has led to increasing frustration

 

[araz]

Let me put it this way. Trump will loose his reselection if he doesnt with draws ..the perception that he doesnt follow deep state will be shattered amongst his core followers(10 %usa population)

In era where turn out has been around 25-30% this is the reason why he won

USA population is becoming poorer and poorer(as wealth swings into higjer higher bracket population) this has led to increasing frustration

I understand the reasons for withdrawal but I still feel we need to wait and see.
A

 

[VCheng]

Let me put it this way. Trump will loose his reselection if he doesnt with draws ..the perception that he doesnt follow deep state will be shattered amongst his core followers(10 %usa population)

In era where turn out has been around 25-30% this is the reason why he won

USA population is becoming poorer and poorer(as wealth swings into higjer higher bracket population) this has led to increasing frustration

Trump's re-election will depend on the economy first and foremost, with matters like Afghanistan and Syria remaining only on the periphery of the voting public's mind.