Martian2
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It should be apparent to everyone that military technology is advancing very rapidly in China. Examples include DF-5B MIRVed warheads, WU-14 hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV), PL-10 AAM, etc.
The question is why? Over the last five years, the pace has quickened dramatically. I think there are five reasons.
1. China has a booming economy that provides plentiful resources.
We saw this same phenomenon with the United States back in the 1960s. After World War II, the United States was the world's largest exporter and had huge trade surpluses. The US merchandise trade surplus did not end until 1975. (Source: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/historical/gands.pdf )
During the boom years of the 1960s, the US built the Mach 3 SR-71 and Saturn V rocket.
Since China has an annual merchandise trade surplus of $500 billion, we are seeing a similar effect. There appears to be almost unlimited funds to develop Chinese military technologies.
2. China has recovered from the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976). Mao made a big mistake when he banished China's smartest and brightest to the countryside. Obviously, exceptions were made for the nuclear and rocketry programs. However, China's aircraft design made no progress for ten years. A lot of the expertise in military technology was lost.
After spending 40 years to recover and rebuild its technological base, China has rectified the problem. In fact, China awards prizes to scientists for outstanding achievement in recognition of their contribution to China's national security. Modern China values its scientists and engineers.
3. China has acquired the necessary tools to pursue high technology. In 1993, President Bill Clinton agreed to sell an $8 million supercomputer to China. Twenty years later, China builds its own billion-dollar supercomputers. Without the sophisticated computer modeling on supercomputers, it is almost impossible to develop cutting-edge military technology.
Also, China has micron-level CNC machine tools. It is impossible to build high-performance aircraft without CNC machine tools.
For example, the European Eurofighter has a tolerance of 70 microns in its construction.
Eurofighter Production
"Several large engineering production machines are now installed or projected to be used at Samlesbury. These include four Advanced Contouring Machines (ACM), two five-axis machining centres (FAM), an advanced 10-axis, gantry-type V4 Contour Tape Laying (CTL) machine. The levels of production accuracy required are astounding, panels and fittings have tolerances equal to 70 microns. This means that parts taken from one aircraft will fit any another, without modification, as was common practice on previous aircraft."
4. Competition within China is spurring the furious pace of military technology. China has two prominent aircraft manufacturers. Chengdu builds the J-10 and J-20. Shenyang builds the J-11B, J-15, and J-31. It's like a deathmatch. If you don't win a big defense contract, the company won't exist for much longer. Thus, Chengdu and Shenyang are constantly pushing the limits of technology to stay ahead of their competitor. This is the application of market forces to military-oriented corporations.
5. China has achieved economy of scale. Since China has become the world's second-largest economy with the world's second-largest military budget, it enables China to buy huge quantities of military equipment. This makes it economical to produce titanium parts that are used in attack helicopters and combat aircraft.
It's a virtuous cycle. China's defense industry consumes large quantities of specialized materials (e.g. titanium, composites, nickel-based superalloys, etc.). This spurs the development of new materials to supplant the existing specialized materials because there is a large demand. This pushes China's material science forward.
In conclusion, the five forces that are accelerating China's military technology will become more pronounced in the foreseeable future. We should expect more dramatic military advancements in China.
The question is why? Over the last five years, the pace has quickened dramatically. I think there are five reasons.
1. China has a booming economy that provides plentiful resources.
We saw this same phenomenon with the United States back in the 1960s. After World War II, the United States was the world's largest exporter and had huge trade surpluses. The US merchandise trade surplus did not end until 1975. (Source: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/historical/gands.pdf )
During the boom years of the 1960s, the US built the Mach 3 SR-71 and Saturn V rocket.
Since China has an annual merchandise trade surplus of $500 billion, we are seeing a similar effect. There appears to be almost unlimited funds to develop Chinese military technologies.
2. China has recovered from the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976). Mao made a big mistake when he banished China's smartest and brightest to the countryside. Obviously, exceptions were made for the nuclear and rocketry programs. However, China's aircraft design made no progress for ten years. A lot of the expertise in military technology was lost.
After spending 40 years to recover and rebuild its technological base, China has rectified the problem. In fact, China awards prizes to scientists for outstanding achievement in recognition of their contribution to China's national security. Modern China values its scientists and engineers.
3. China has acquired the necessary tools to pursue high technology. In 1993, President Bill Clinton agreed to sell an $8 million supercomputer to China. Twenty years later, China builds its own billion-dollar supercomputers. Without the sophisticated computer modeling on supercomputers, it is almost impossible to develop cutting-edge military technology.
Also, China has micron-level CNC machine tools. It is impossible to build high-performance aircraft without CNC machine tools.
For example, the European Eurofighter has a tolerance of 70 microns in its construction.
Eurofighter Production
"Several large engineering production machines are now installed or projected to be used at Samlesbury. These include four Advanced Contouring Machines (ACM), two five-axis machining centres (FAM), an advanced 10-axis, gantry-type V4 Contour Tape Laying (CTL) machine. The levels of production accuracy required are astounding, panels and fittings have tolerances equal to 70 microns. This means that parts taken from one aircraft will fit any another, without modification, as was common practice on previous aircraft."
4. Competition within China is spurring the furious pace of military technology. China has two prominent aircraft manufacturers. Chengdu builds the J-10 and J-20. Shenyang builds the J-11B, J-15, and J-31. It's like a deathmatch. If you don't win a big defense contract, the company won't exist for much longer. Thus, Chengdu and Shenyang are constantly pushing the limits of technology to stay ahead of their competitor. This is the application of market forces to military-oriented corporations.
5. China has achieved economy of scale. Since China has become the world's second-largest economy with the world's second-largest military budget, it enables China to buy huge quantities of military equipment. This makes it economical to produce titanium parts that are used in attack helicopters and combat aircraft.
It's a virtuous cycle. China's defense industry consumes large quantities of specialized materials (e.g. titanium, composites, nickel-based superalloys, etc.). This spurs the development of new materials to supplant the existing specialized materials because there is a large demand. This pushes China's material science forward.
In conclusion, the five forces that are accelerating China's military technology will become more pronounced in the foreseeable future. We should expect more dramatic military advancements in China.
