Why is Imran Khan not putting the country on a complete lockdown?

[masterchief_mirza]

Virus is already spreading in the community. A total lockdown now is probably too late anyway. It may buy some time by slowing spread and slowing admissions to intensive care ("flattening the curve"). However, capacity to cope with admissions is the biggest problem. On balance, significant but not necessarily total (to mitigate economic damage) lockdown and immediate conversion of available space into makeshift intensive care units are required. Draft in the military, medical students, nursing students and retired medics immediately to help back up experienced staff these facilities.

Ration the experienced ITU doctors and ITU nurses around these makeshift departments, as these individuals are now Pakistan's most valuable commodity.

Lots of infected people isn't a bad thing eventually as this end point will generate herd immunity. It's about controlling the rate of descent towards that end point.

 

[El Sidd]

I am instructing the military to move in and take over governance of the country on war footing.

The suicidal manchild is not worth putting the country to the sword of his wifes dream interpretation capabilities.

 

[Verve]

The problem is labor class they don't have money to stock up food for lock down and they will suffer.

But how much will it cost the government to distribute free food to all those in need?

We have sufficient food then why should anyone go hungry?

Nationalise the full food chain.

What's the cost?

 

[Safriz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1241896298074300420

https://twitter.com/x/status/1241825281502928897

 

[El Sidd]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1241896298074300420

https://twitter.com/x/status/1241825281502928897

Close the inter provincial travel.

Let community building begin in isolation.

 

[Pakistansdefender]

Complete lock down ho chuka hai yar. Bus pharmacies khuli hai bus.

 

[RIP Pak LAW]

Media who has been chanting about lockdown Lockdown Lockdown shouldn't question Govt about economy for atleast a year now.

 

[iLION12345_1]

First of all, kind of an idiotic question. A complete lockdown is possible, no doubt, with strict enforcement by Police/Paramilitaries/Army. But a major portion of the people of Pakistan and incredibly stupid. Then there’s the opposition parties. Until the country is placed in lockdown they’ll be crying about why it hasn’t been done already, as soon as GOP places it under lockdown and the economy gets hurt there will be massive hue and cry from the opposition and their supporters that PTI has destroyed the economy. This is how Pakistani politics work. No party has ever been able to do anything because the opposition will make sure they fail. And then people ask why the government is “failing” them. People will protest either way. It’s a very delicate balance to be maintained.


Secondly, I’ve been traveling this entire past week in Pakistan (it was necessary for me, but I’m home now).
And my observation is that the lockdowns are somewhat already there. In Sindh, Baluchistan and GB of course paramilitaries and army are enforcing complete lockdowns now.
In KP, the public response has been the best imo. They didn’t need to call out any paramilitary or army, just the police and they didn’t need to enforce any lockdown. They asked people to stay indoors, and that’s what people are doing. I was impressed.
Punjab is what I’m worried about, all the major shops, business and hotels etc are indeed closed. And since yesterday 95% of smaller shops are too. But people are not staying indoors at all and those Congested Sabzi fruit markets are as full as ever where thousands of people come and go. It’s really concerning.
Transport in Punjab is also a little concerning, public transport is still active. Though the majority of the vehicles on the road are trucks. People are still going around, even in buses, in other provinces it’s mostly just trucks. (Intra city travel that is).
There is talk among the military that they’re going to be deployed in Punjab to enforce a lockdown soon though. My fathers regiment is being deployed there aswell If the order is given.
For now it’s just about doing your own best. Stay inside. Use common sense. If only Pakistanis would do something themselves for once instead of crying to the government who they don’t let make good decisions.

 

[Longhorn]

Virus is already spreading in the community. A total lockdown now is probably too late anyway. It may buy some time by slowing spread and slowing admissions to intensive care ("flattening the curve"). However, capacity to cope with admissions is the biggest problem. On balance, significant but not necessarily total (to mitigate economic damage) lockdown and immediate conversion of available space into makeshift intensive care units are required. Draft in the military, medical students, nursing students and retired medics immediately to help back up experienced staff these facilities.

Ration the experienced ITU doctors and ITU nurses around these makeshift departments, as these individuals are now Pakistan's most valuable commodity.

Lots of infected people isn't a bad thing eventually as this end point will generate herd immunity. It's about controlling the rate of descent towards that end point.

Uncontrolled infection will be a disaster.
How many percent will perish before this herd immunity is created. It will wreak havoc amongst an already malnourished, underfed population.

 

[Mrityunjay Rai]

The sooner the better. Imran has already delayed the lockdown. Good decision by imran although it should have been taken a week before.

 

[jarves]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1241896298074300420

A disaster waiting to happen.

 

[Krptonite]

Virus is already spreading in the community. A total lockdown now is probably too late anyway. It may buy some time by slowing spread and slowing admissions to intensive care ("flattening the curve"). However, capacity to cope with admissions is the biggest problem. On balance, significant but not necessarily total (to mitigate economic damage) lockdown and immediate conversion of available space into makeshift intensive care units are required. Draft in the military, medical students, nursing students and retired medics immediately to help back up experienced staff these facilities.

Ration the experienced ITU doctors and ITU nurses around these makeshift departments, as these individuals are now Pakistan's most valuable commodity.

Lots of infected people isn't a bad thing eventually as this end point will generate herd immunity. It's about controlling the rate of descent towards that end point.

Good points, the main issue regarding this virus is its ability to overwhelm the healthcare system. After the number of patients cross a critical threshold, healthcare workers would be faced with who to save and who to abandon, similar to war casualties and medical operations

To add to all of this, over time the critical threshold also decreases due to infected healthcare workers going out of commission and unless supported by external reinforcements ( other branches health staff) can lead to severely inefficient system causing more casualties.

State governments have started locking down entire districts from where the cases have appeared, as an alternative to a national ban would such a approach be suitable for GoP? Seems like a middle way between complete clampdown and free movement.

 

[RescueRanger]

Uncontrolled infection will be a disaster.
How many percent will perish before this herd immunity is created. It will wreak havoc amongst an already malnourished, underfed population.

Heard immunity was a stupid idea and this is why:

I ran a simulation scenario where people would be infected without any social distancing. The parameters I used were as follows:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1241877974045114369

Parameters:
Hospitalised patients with COVID: 130
Region pop: for this simulation I choose A region of Karachi city with a population of 2972639
Hospital Share: 50%
Doubling days: 10 Days [ American Hospital Association recommends between 7-10 days]
Social distancing: start of simulation: Zero social isolation = 250 daily admissions by day 60, at 25% people choosing social distancing the figures comes down to 25 people daily admitted.

So as you can see, if we relied on "heard immunity" thr so called heard would be driven off a metaphorical cliff. Because you would have more people being admitted into hospitals than there are hospital beds, as we can see in other parts of the world.

If that happened, we won't be able to cope.

Dont take my word for it, here read this article that basically says the same thing.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/...ndemic-herd-immunity-uk-boris-johnson/608065/

 

[Raj-Hindustani]

I guess, Imran Khan is confused between Lockdown and curfew. (I saw his video where he was telling that we can't imposed complete lockdown, he will definitely do if situation is like Italy and Iran).

I am afraid that Italy and other countries are regretting to not declare lockdown before the situation was in control.

We south Asian are not much having all medical facilities and we can wait any such kind of disaster.

Action should be proactive and not reactive...

 

[Longhorn]

Heard immunity was a stupid idea and this is why:

I ran a simulation scenario where people would be infected without any social distancing. The parameters I used were as follows:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1241877974045114369

Parameters:
Hospitalised patients with COVID: 130
Region pop: for this simulation I choose A region of Karachi city with a population of 2972639
Hospital Share: 50%
Doubling days: 10 Days [ American Hospital Association recommends between 7-10 days]
Social distancing: start of simulation: Zero social isolation = 250 daily admissions by day 60, at 25% people choosing social distancing the figures comes down to 25 people daily admitted.

So as you can see, if we relied on "heard immunity" thr so called heard would be driven off a metaphorical cliff. Because you would have more people being admitted into hospitals than there are hospital beds, as we can see in other parts of the world.

If that happened, we won't be able to cope.

Dont take my word for it, here read this article that basically says the same thing.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/...ndemic-herd-immunity-uk-boris-johnson/608065/

You're pushing at an open door with me.
I believe you.
Herd immunity was a way of selling inaction as a scientific strategy.
What it boiled down to was those who would survive would survive and sod the rest.