Why Iran wouldn't last a few days against US

[skyshadow]

Why Israel has been silent amid growing US-Iran tensions

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...lained-syria-conflict-war-trump-a8924061.html

 

[GWXP]

1) Iran has 200k troops and 2000 tanks near the border with Iraq. If US achieve air supremacy their air force will destroy Iranian army---so you better use those forces before loosing them.

Before US achieve air dominance, Iran should send its ground force into Iraq and Kuwait.

Iraq produces 4,5 mln barrels of oil per day and Kuwait produces 4mln barrels per day-------occupation of oil fields and destruction of Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil infrastructure is the goal for Iranian ground force and its armored spearhead.....At the same time Iranian ground assault against Kuwait will keep US resources busy there

2) Dezful missile- a high precision missile will target Saudi Aramco oil terminals in Saudi Arabia

and don't forget about Saudi petrochemical plants and water desalination facilities

3) Shia rebels in Eastern province of Saudi Arabia will take care of pipelines and other oil industry infrastructure

4) Short range Fateh-110 and Zulfiqar are prepared for nearby UAE and its oil industry

5) Khalije Fars anti-ship ballistic missile will take care of oil supertankers carrying Persian Gulf's 18mln barrels of oil per day

6) Whoever survives Iranian anti-ship missiles---Welcome to the Strait of Hormuz now blocked and full of mines

7) Long range ballistic missile Khorramshahr 2

with that precision US F-15s and F-16s in the airfields of Saudi Arabia will be covered by rain of cluster munitions coming from space

8) oil infrastructure will be destroyed in few days---meantime US air force will be busy with anti-radiation campaign against Iranian air defenses in Fars province and sorties against Iranian ground force in Iraq and Kuwait

9) No comparison with Iraq 1991, because Saddam didn't have those weapons and that long coastline along the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz

 

[VEVAK]

US does not have the stomach for a major war and the dotard sitting in the White House is himself saying that. He is up for re-election and it won't look very good if he is sitting in the middle of 5,000 caskets wrapped in stars and stripes. But I must say this thread contains some of the most wildest and idiotic comments I have ever read.



This is the truth. If Iranians are thinking of fighting the war in the streets of Tehran then Iran has already lost the war. Iranians should visit Mosul to see what happens when you use this sort of tactics to fight your enemy. What is the next bright idea? Fighting the US army in your bedroom?



Iraq has been smashed into oblivion and US is humming along even if the war in Iraq took more than two weeks. This is how it all turned out.



When the Shia militias in Iraq don't get their payments on time, they will turn to Baghdad or CIA who will once again deliver money to them in briefcases to keep the oil flowing. This won't be the first time they have taken money from the CIA.



Iran is not Vietnam. Vietnam was divided at 17th parallel. This allowed Viet Cong leadership complete operational freedom which they put to good use by crisscrossing into Laos and Cambodia (Ho Chi Minh Trail) to attack South Vietnam where the US Army was based. Similar arrangement is in place on the Korean peninsula which is divided at 38th parallel and allows Kim dynasty to survive. In Afghanistan, the Taliban leadership hid in Pakistan. Which country will shelter Iranian leadership? Iraq? Syria? Lebanon? Turkey? Afghanistan? China? Russia? India? Pakistan? France?

View attachment 561407

With Iraq and Libya, there were no such arrangements in place and in both cases the leadership was eliminated. Iran falls into this latter camp. There will be no North-South Iran which will allow the regime to survive and what happened to Iraq and Libya will be Iran's fate.

View attachment 561410

View attachment 561412





This is realistic and unsurprisingly is triggering the American members on this thread.

High oil and gas prices will be a big financial windfall for American shale industry but fighting a war during the price crunch will easily cost over $200B per year.



If Iran fought like Taliban for decades then Iran will become another Afghanistan.



He doesn't get paid enough to monitor this forum.



You are pinning the hope of saving the Islamic Republic of Iran on a Hindu nationalist in India and an atheist commie in China?

US has been in Afghanistan for two decades which shares a border with China. What has China done? Practically nothing. China and its military are paper tigers.

Your right Iran is NOT Vietnam! Where half the country has invited invaders. And unlike Vietnam Iran is a country that is larger than Germany, France, Italy & U.K. combined where as Vietnam was even smaller than even Germany & half the country had already invited invaders, unlike Vietnam Iran is a country that's been producing over 90% of it's own yearly military acquisitions for decades and more specifically has been producing weapons to fight a war with the U.S. due to over a decade of U.S threats which means unlike most countries Iran's military today is not built around 20-30 Military Bases that if attacked would completely cripple the country militarily and today taking out Iran's Air Force & Blue water fleet would hardly effect Iran's retaliatory capabilities and unlike Vietnam Iran has the capability to effect 1/4 of world's Oil supplies & doesn't need an air force with runways to retaliate against any aggressor with a vast stock of missiles and UCAV that have already proven their accuracy on the battlefield.

You have clearly been brainwashed by U.S. propaganda! Go read the recent history of Iraq. Saddam was at war with Iran between 1980-88 a few years after that war he attacked the very same people that funded his war for him which led to the U.S.-Iraq war and between 1991-2002 the U.S. didn't go a single year without bombing Iraq!
So it's nothing but U.S. propaganda that makes simple fools who don't know any better think that the U.S. took Iraq in a matter of weeks but in truth that is simply NOTHING but U.S. created propaganda. U.S. bombed Iraq for over a decade before it actually invaded mostly under two main operations of Norther Watch (1992-2003) and Southern Watch (1997-2003) (among others).
You also have to look at demographics. By 2003 there were only ~1.6 Million Sunni Arab Men age 16-60 in all of Iraq and not even all of them were pro Saddam and a minority group was ruling over and oppressing the majority of Iraqi's who were either Shiite Arabs or Kurds.
So by 2003 invasion Saddam had no Air Force, No Navy, It's Air Defenses was bombed systematically for over a decade, he possessed no more than 9 ballistic missiles that had a max range of 300km that lacked the accuracy to target anything, Iraqi weapons factories and depots were also bombed for over a decade,.....
And Libya has always been a tribal nation that was divided among 3 main tribes that were involved in bloody civil wars against each other with a population (under 8 million ppl) less than 1/10 of Iran's and even less than Iran's volunteer Basij para-military force!

To top all that off when the U.S. invaded Iraq the U.S. economy ($12 Trillion USD) was 7 times larger than China ($1.6 Trillion USD). With Japan housing U.S. bases the U.S. had no real adversaries that could even come close to U.S. economic supremacy over the world ensuring the USD supremacy while U.S. debt at the times was only ~50% of it's GDP.
Today U.S. has run up a debt that is at 108% of it's GDP at $22 Trillion and over a trillion of which they owe to China! And China's economy at $12 trillion GDP nominal is already at almost 3/4 of the U.S. economy at $19 Trillion while Chinese debt is only at ~40% and in terms of GDP(ppp) the Chinese have already surpassed the U.S. economy so if the U.S. starts a major conflict, they will almost be ensured to lose regardless of the outcome of the war it's self so already the outcome doesn't look good for US dollars supremacy that has allowed the U.S. to print as much money as it wants and if the American's don't back off they almost but guarantee their own demise if they do something stupid like attack a country capable of effecting 1/4 of the worlds petrodollar.

 

[jamal18]

@VEVAK

1. The financial aspect is totally ignored. The US is already bankrupt, a war with Iran will push it over the edge.

2. If Iran closes the supply of oil, whether by shutting the straits of Hormuz or targeting Arab oil production, the economic recession and international uproar will be massive. Even the US will not be able to withstand it.

For both reasons, the longer the war lasts, the better for Iran. The collapse of the US dollar, caused by this crisis, will be the final defeat for the US.

 

[sepasgozar]

Some quality posts above me ^

Great information being shared. A little revolution every now and then is a good thing. It is time the US succumbs to its fate.

 

[Arminkh]

Guys! Guys! It is over:

Pentagon chief claims US steps ‘put on hold’ Iran’s plans for ‘attacks against Americans’

https://www.rt.com/news/459927-pentagon-iran-attacks-on-hold/

They didn't even enter the Persian Gulf and they still saved the day. Reminds me of this story:

A grifter was selling rocks as tiger repellent, who when asked how it works explains, “you don’t see any tigers around, do you?”

Now you can continue your estimation about how long Iran would last!

 

[Draco.IMF]

interesting last words....

 

[Oldman1]

H
Your flaw is your failure to understand that Iran will not be playing according to your rules...Iran will give you both LAND WAR with 200k troops and 2000 tanks attacking Kuwait in order to divert your resources toward that part of the region...and while you will be busy in Kuwait repelling Iranian attacks....Iranian forces will take care of regional oil production

The largest mistake Saddam made in 1990 is how he for 6 month dumbly watched how Americans deploy division after division preparing their military muscle...Saddam should have attacked US forces with his armored spearhead once the deployment process began.

Iran should not repeat Saddam's mistake and simply watch how USA brings its forces to the region....Currently, US has one armored brigade in Kuwait and Iran has 2000 tanks and 200k troops----once Americans start deployment, Iran should attack and not give USA time to prepare

Sending 200k troops and 2000 tanks into Kuwait is suicidal. You know they be destroyed.

 

[hassamun]

Looking though this Topic makes me realise how naive and childish some people can become. Anyways one must realise this is no Afghanistan or Iraq or Libya that we're talking about. Iran is on a level of it's own. Iran is being Ranked at 14 out of 137 Nations in Military Might. Now that is power and no small feat. Iran's Topography is another challenge which poses no easy and quick solution.

Here are some facts for you guys:-

1. Iran's total military personnel is believed to amount to an estimated 873,000 people, with 523,000 of them active and the rest believed to be reserve personnel.

2. The total number of Iranian military aircrafts amounts to 509, including fighter jets, attack aircraft, helicopter and transporters.

3. Iran’s land strength is overwhelmingly composed of 2,345 armoured fighting vehicles and 1,634 combat tanks.

4. Tehran can also count on 570 self-propelled artillery, 2,128 towed artillery and 1,900 rocket projectors.

5. Lastly, Iran has a naval asset counting 398 ships. Among the vessels available to Tehran, there are six frigates, 34 submarines and three mine warfare ships.

Currently there seems to be no end as far as wars in both Afghanistan and Iraq are concerned. One would hope that at the end both sides shall exercise maximum restraint and that common sense shall prevail...

Source: https://www.express.co.uk/news/worl...ran-military-strength-us-military-middle-east

 

[Yaseen1]

iran should disperse its ground forces and missiles across whole region under its influence and respond towards u.s assets at repeated intervals in slow manner and not try to launch them in haste it will result in much prolonged damage to u.s and its allies

 

[GWXP]

Sending 200k troops and 2000 tanks into Kuwait is suicidal. You know they be destroyed.

When US achieve air supremacy they will be destroyed any way---so better use them to destroy oil infrastructure and divert US resources before loosing them

 

[Oldman1]

When US achieve air supremacy they will be destroyed any way---so better use them to destroy oil infrastructure and divert US resources before loosing them

That would be worse. Think about it. You will be repeating the same mistake Iraq did whether invading or retreating. It be similar to the Highway of Death. Better to keep the troops and tanks inside Iran for other purposes then to send them out towards Kuwait or Saudi Arabia.

For now, let's see when the US strike group gets the balls to enter Persian Gulf. They seem to feel safer in Arabian sea.

And what happens when the carrier group goes into the Persian Gulf what then? You going to lob missiles at it? You got the balls to do it?

 

[GWXP]

interesting last words....

This is Yakov Kedmi--former veteran of Israeli-Arab wars and former head of Israeli intelligence service Nativ ---he knows better than anyone in this forum and his words match my posts in this thread.

All healthy US politicians like for example Zbigniew Brzezinski said that Iranian nuclear weapons are not a threat to USA, which managed to contain Soviet Union that had thousands and thousands of nuclear bombs. The only thing US needs from this region is oil---and the war with Iran is the worst thing they can do to guarantee free flow of oil.

Iranian nuclear weapon however is a threat to Israel--which is a "one bomb country".

The truth is that from US national interest point of view-USA never needed to invade Iraq nor they need to invade Iran.....there is no threat to America-----the decision to invade Iraq, topple Assad and attitude toward Iran is the result of the actions of the Israeli Lobby in USA that drives US foreign policy in the Middle East toward one goal---to destroy Israeli enemies with American hands in order to guarantee Israel's long-term survival in this region.

Article By John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt----Israeli Lobby and US Foreign Policy
http://mearsheimer.uchicago.edu/pdfs/IsraelLobby.pdf

 

[B.K.N]

Looking though this Topic makes me realise how naive and childish some people can become. Anyways one must realise this is no Afghanistan or Iraq or Libya that we're talking about. Iran is on a level of it's own. Iran is being Ranked at 14 out of 137 Nations in Military Might. Now that is power and no small feat. Iran's Topography is another challenge which poses no easy and quick solution.

Here are some facts for you guys:-

1. Iran's total military personnel is believed to amount to an estimated 873,000 people, with 523,000 of them active and the rest believed to be reserve personnel.

2. The total number of Iranian military aircrafts amounts to 509, including fighter jets, attack aircraft, helicopter and transporters.

3. Iran’s land strength is overwhelmingly composed of 2,345 armoured fighting vehicles and 1,634 combat tanks.

4. Tehran can also count on 570 self-propelled artillery, 2,128 towed artillery and 1,900 rocket projectors.

5. Lastly, Iran has a naval asset counting 398 ships. Among the vessels available to Tehran, there are six frigates, 34 submarines and three mine warfare ships.

Currently there seems to be no end as far as wars in both Afghanistan and Iraq are concerned. One would hope that at the end both sides shall exercise maximum restraint and that common sense shall prevail...

Source: https://www.express.co.uk/news/worl...ran-military-strength-us-military-middle-east

But still not comparable to world's strongest military US is technologically supperior to any other country of the world
and technology is what wins not emotions or bravery

 

[Tigers]

Your right Iran is NOT Vietnam! Where half the country has invited invaders. And unlike Vietnam Iran is a country that is larger than Germany, France, Italy & U.K. combined where as Vietnam was even smaller than even Germany & half the country had already invited invaders, unlike Vietnam Iran is a country that's been producing over 90% of it's own yearly military acquisitions for decades and more specifically has been producing weapons to fight a war with the U.S. due to over a decade of U.S threats which means unlike most countries Iran's military today is not built around 20-30 Military Bases that if attacked would completely cripple the country militarily and today taking out Iran's Air Force & Blue water fleet would hardly effect Iran's retaliatory capabilities and unlike Vietnam Iran has the capability to effect 1/4 of world's Oil supplies & doesn't need an air force with runways to retaliate against any aggressor with a vast stock of missiles and UCAV that have already proven their accuracy on the battlefield.

Maybe the rauza made you miss the point which is staring you in the face that is if your leadership isn't safe then your war effort will fizzle out like Iraq and Libya. In case of Vietnam, their leadership had a safe territory to operate from. Even Taliban in Afghanistan manage to impose a stalemate when their leadership enjoyed safe heavens in Pakistan. Who will provide safe heaven to Iranian leadership? Can you name one country? or is Iranian leadership going to hide in the bathroom if the US army shows up? Military acquisitions doesn't mean anything unless they help Iran win the war and that they cannot. Iranian air force is antiquated and it stands no chance. Iran's 'Blue Water' fleet with all its speed boats will be next, leaving the army cooped up inside Iran to resist. How long will they last? Now let's be generous and say Iran gets everything on your wish list, will Iran win the war? No. You are talking about collective suicide. This is what the Japanese used to do until two nuclear bombs were dropped on them and then they came back to their senses.

You have clearly been brainwashed by U.S. propaganda!

Anyone who disagree with the Mullah regime's suicidal plan must be brainwashed! The funny thing is I am not even taking US side here. I am saying what I see as reality. You have some grand delusions where destroying the GCC's oil production will win you the war but to humor you let's say all of that does happen. What then? GCC isn't poor. They can rebuild their oil production and all you did was give GCC a reason to attack you. After the war, they will make you pay war reparations just like Iraq and Germany had to.

Go read the recent history of Iraq. Saddam was at war with Iran between 1980-88 a few years after that war he attacked the very same people that funded his war for him which led to the U.S.-Iraq war and between 1991-2002 the U.S. didn't go a single year without bombing Iraq!

I already know the history of Saddam and Iran-Iraq war. None of that is going to save Iran. This isn't a history exam. This is war.

So it's nothing but U.S. propaganda that makes simple fools who don't know any better think that the U.S. took Iraq in a matter of weeks but in truth that is simply NOTHING but U.S. created propaganda. U.S. bombed Iraq for over a decade before it actually invaded mostly under two main operations of Norther Watch (1992-2003) and Southern Watch (1997-2003) (among others).

Iraq war drama was a crusade just like the coming war on Iran will be a crusade. You sat back and enjoyed the show in Iraq. Now it is your turn. Next it will be Pakistan.

You also have to look at demographics. By 2003 there were only ~1.6 Million Sunni Arab Men age 16-60 in all of Iraq and not even all of them were pro Saddam and a minority group was ruling over and oppressing the majority of Iraqi's who were either Shiite Arabs or Kurds.

We don't have to look at demographics. Drone warfare have changed the rules of the game. US will do signature strikes and kill everyone on the battlefield. Then claim everyone was enemy combatant like they do in Afghanistan and across Africa. This is a crusade do over for US. They don't care about how many innocent Iranians and Muslims they kill. You and I are not their problem. What is the Iranian government's plan to save you and its people? or do the Mullah want everyone to wear a suicide vest?

So by 2003 invasion Saddam had no Air Force, No Navy, It's Air Defenses was bombed systematically for over a decade, he possessed no more than 9 ballistic missiles that had a max range of 300km that lacked the accuracy to target anything, Iraqi weapons factories and depots were also bombed for over a decade,.....
And Libya has always been a tribal nation that was divided among 3 main tribes that were involved in bloody civil wars against each other with a population (under 8 million ppl) less than 1/10 of Iran's and even less than Iran's volunteer Basij para-military force!

US will repeat the same playbook on you. This is why Iran is under sanctions and people of Iran are hurting but right now Iranians are full of spirit. Trump and Bolton will wait for another 4-5 years for the right moment until sanctions cripple Iran. By then Iranians will be exhausted from economic hardships, Iran's finances and IRGC's external infrastructure will be in bad shape. Then US will attack. May be it will take 10 years to get Iran there but this is what US did to Iraq and it is what US will do to Iran.

To top all that off when the U.S. invaded Iraq the U.S. economy ($12 Trillion USD) was 7 times larger than China ($1.6 Trillion USD). With Japan housing U.S. bases the U.S. had no real adversaries that could even come close to U.S. economic supremacy over the world ensuring the USD supremacy while U.S. debt at the times was only ~50% of it's GDP.
Today U.S. has run up a debt that is at 108% of it's GDP at $22 Trillion and over a trillion of which they owe to China! And China's economy at $12 trillion GDP nominal is already at almost 3/4 of the U.S. economy at $19 Trillion while Chinese debt is only at ~40% and in terms of GDP(ppp) the Chinese have already surpassed the U.S. economy so if the U.S. starts a major conflict, they will almost be ensured to lose regardless of the outcome of the war it's self so already the outcome doesn't look good for US dollars supremacy that has allowed the U.S. to print as much money as it wants and if the American's don't back off they almost but guarantee their own demise if they do something stupid like attack a country capable of effecting 1/4 of the worlds petrodollar.

Do the math on Iran's economy and you will see Iran is on its way to becoming Afghanistan. America will still have Google, Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft and many Fortune 500 companies so they can bounce back. What about Iran? Let me make it very clear that this war on Iran is being fought for the safety of American colony in Middle East: Israel. The biggest winner here will be Israel but Saudi Arabia, UAE and China will be also benefit. No one is arguing that this war is in the benefit of US. Even a blind man can see a war with Iran will hurt US but the American elite don't care because the Americans who will die in the war are the poor people and no one in US cares about them so their death isn't going to change the path of the war. The million dollar question here is what plan does Iranian government has to safeguard its people from the upcoming genocide and becoming refugee seekers like Iraqis and Afghans?

That would be worse. Think about it. You will be repeating the same mistake Iraq did whether invading or retreating. It be similar to the Highway of Death. Better to keep the troops and tanks inside Iran for other purposes then to send them out towards Kuwait or Saudi Arabia.



And what happens when the carrier group goes into the Persian Gulf what then? You going to lob missiles at it? You got the balls to do it?

Iran can equip its regional allies to keep the US unbalanced and a carrier in the Persian gulf is a sitting duck. I hope American military planners aren't as stupid as you.