IndoCarib
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India and China. Western investors love to compare the worlds most populous nations as if they were identical economies at different points on the same timeline. After all, both are growth powerhouses. Over the decade ended in 2010, Chinas GDP grew on average 10.3% per year versus an impressive 7.4% for India.
But investors should stop thinking about India as China 2.0. There are good reasons to be bullish on India, precisely because it is different from China.
While China is all about exports, India is an economy that thrives on domestic consumption. With fears of European contagion and anemic worldwide growth affecting *exporters like China and Brazil, fund managers have been looking more seriously at India.
There are now two dozen Indian equity mutual funds and ETFs available to capitalize on the countrys long-term growth. After a dismal 2011 Indian equity mutual funds have gotten off to a strong start this year.
The threat of an economic slowdown in India may give *investors pause, but on a company level fund managers continue to see long-term opportunity.
The biggest collection of consumer-facing companies that can benefit from structural growth is found in India, says Sammy Simnegar, manager of Fidelitys International Capital Appreciation Fund. The government doesnt have major shareholdings in the vast majority of listed companies. In China its the exact opposite.
The big story in India continues to be its demographics. It will overtake China as the largest population in the world by 2030 and has one of the youngest populations among emerging-market nations. Nearly half its citizens are under 25. Most developed markets are in *decline, especially Japan. China and others are past their peak, says Prashant Khemka, managing director and chief investment officer at Goldman Sachs Asset *Management India.
Given its burgeoning population of working-age people, Indias biggest opportunity is also its biggest threat. Will its economy be able to provide enough jobs?
Sharat Shroff, manager of the Matthews India Fund, which has returned 10.2% annually since its inception in 2005, points to infrastructure investment as a critical step toward leveraging what he calls Indias demographic dividend.Economists and analysts say the key will be maintaining GDP growth above 7% or so. The movement of rural Indians to urban life could play a big role in achieving that rate.
Around 30% of the population in India is urban, notes Khemka. The movement of labor from agriculture to manufacturing and services can add 1% in growth annually, according to some estimates.
Would-be investors in Indian funds (see table) should keep in mind that, unlike China, India is a net importer. Its domestic economys health will drive returns.
Many fund managers focus on Indian blue chips and the global firms that have established significant foreign divisions there. Hugh Simon, manager of the Dreyfus India Fund, owns names like Novartis India, Nestlé India, Pfizer Limited and Whirlpool of India. His fund is up 10.9% year-to-date.
Simnegar of Fidelity also likes consumer companies with strong brands. Youre going to have more people with more money in their pockets, who like to buy aspirational products.
In May the Indian government cut in half long-term *capital gains taxes on private equity investors while simultaneously postponing the implementation of new tax laws until at least April 2013: a good sign in a nation plagued by bureaucracy. As with any emerging market, investors in India must be able to stomach risk. For example, India is the fifth-largest oil importer in the world. If a spike in oil price causes GDP growth to falter, Indias demographic dividend could very well become a population time bomb.
Why India Won't Be The Next China...And That's Bullish - Forbes
But investors should stop thinking about India as China 2.0. There are good reasons to be bullish on India, precisely because it is different from China.
While China is all about exports, India is an economy that thrives on domestic consumption. With fears of European contagion and anemic worldwide growth affecting *exporters like China and Brazil, fund managers have been looking more seriously at India.
There are now two dozen Indian equity mutual funds and ETFs available to capitalize on the countrys long-term growth. After a dismal 2011 Indian equity mutual funds have gotten off to a strong start this year.
The threat of an economic slowdown in India may give *investors pause, but on a company level fund managers continue to see long-term opportunity.
The biggest collection of consumer-facing companies that can benefit from structural growth is found in India, says Sammy Simnegar, manager of Fidelitys International Capital Appreciation Fund. The government doesnt have major shareholdings in the vast majority of listed companies. In China its the exact opposite.
The big story in India continues to be its demographics. It will overtake China as the largest population in the world by 2030 and has one of the youngest populations among emerging-market nations. Nearly half its citizens are under 25. Most developed markets are in *decline, especially Japan. China and others are past their peak, says Prashant Khemka, managing director and chief investment officer at Goldman Sachs Asset *Management India.
Given its burgeoning population of working-age people, Indias biggest opportunity is also its biggest threat. Will its economy be able to provide enough jobs?
Sharat Shroff, manager of the Matthews India Fund, which has returned 10.2% annually since its inception in 2005, points to infrastructure investment as a critical step toward leveraging what he calls Indias demographic dividend.Economists and analysts say the key will be maintaining GDP growth above 7% or so. The movement of rural Indians to urban life could play a big role in achieving that rate.
Around 30% of the population in India is urban, notes Khemka. The movement of labor from agriculture to manufacturing and services can add 1% in growth annually, according to some estimates.
Would-be investors in Indian funds (see table) should keep in mind that, unlike China, India is a net importer. Its domestic economys health will drive returns.
Many fund managers focus on Indian blue chips and the global firms that have established significant foreign divisions there. Hugh Simon, manager of the Dreyfus India Fund, owns names like Novartis India, Nestlé India, Pfizer Limited and Whirlpool of India. His fund is up 10.9% year-to-date.
Simnegar of Fidelity also likes consumer companies with strong brands. Youre going to have more people with more money in their pockets, who like to buy aspirational products.
In May the Indian government cut in half long-term *capital gains taxes on private equity investors while simultaneously postponing the implementation of new tax laws until at least April 2013: a good sign in a nation plagued by bureaucracy. As with any emerging market, investors in India must be able to stomach risk. For example, India is the fifth-largest oil importer in the world. If a spike in oil price causes GDP growth to falter, Indias demographic dividend could very well become a population time bomb.
Why India Won't Be The Next China...And That's Bullish - Forbes
Even in their more comfortable sectors, I think both countries have realized that increasing global competitiveness is the key to the next level. Again technology is the most important thing. For instance I remember that per unit production energy cost in China is of 4-5 times of that in Japan. This makes GDP comparison kind of meaningless.
