Why India Will Displace China as Global Growth Engine

[East Asia United]

China in 1999( $1 trillion) and in 2005( $2 trillion).
India in 2007( $1 trillion) and in 2013( $2 trillion).
Check it from World Bank website.

China is on a downhill growth path but India is on the uphill growth path. This is the difference. Consult with any economist and the answer will be the same.

So, China 2005 was $2 trillion? And China 2012 is $8.2 trillion. So China made a 4x increase in 7 years? Niiiiiice! What was India in 2005? Like $800 billion? And what is India in 2012? $1.8 trillion? So you doubled. Congratulations!

 

[djsjs]

That's really impressive achivement!Congratulations!
We chinese really need to learn from indian ,always look at the future and keep optimistic.
No troll here ,peace

丫丫！agree fully!我们17年前的发电量确实跟他们差不多。so lets be careful.

 

[bleedingboi]

Walmart is not a good example, it's initial investments were to secure a Chinese supply chain for us bound goods, it has failed to capture Chinese market since, it has smallest market share out of the big chain supermarkets in china. Carrefour, telco and local Chinese hypermarket all have bigger market share. I can assure you it's Chinese's entry to the WTO and prolonged double digit growth combined with a stable currency that drew the investments not a deteriorating one.

Part time stock players? You obviously don't know Chinese shares are coded so foreigners can't invest directly. While others are coded for joint investments. For individual investors not fdi, their impact on Chinese stock market is non- existent.

I hope You learned something today.

I definitely agree. And to add... Walmart is perhaps one of the most dangerous elements of capitalism in society today for some various reason.

 

[Nan Yang]

Study INR for at least 10 yrs. You will learn how it appreciated from 46 to 40 in 2008 and from 57 to 49 in 2012 in terms of USD. Also study its stability in 2000s. Recent depreciation is due to all time high CAD@6.7%of GDP in Q3 of FY12-13. Q4 data is yet to come and it is projected to be about 4.5%. Then, you will see the result.

And, by the way, who told you depreciation of currency is bad for a country who wants to increase export and attract FIIs??? China also did the same a few years back.

Here is India’s currency rate versus the US$ over a 10 years trend.



Ok look at the trend for 10 years. What I see is each time INR appreciated, it loses steam after a short while and then got worst. The trend over a long term show India’s rupee is weakening. There is no evidence of any sustain appreciation.
Yet as the Rupee weakens, India continues to be a net importer. This shows that India has failed to capitalized on its weak Rupee to maximize its exports.

On the other hand, Chinese Yuan has been constantly appreciating to over 25% over the past 8 years. And yet China continues to export.

When will these Chinese noodles understand that this INR depreciation is one off and has no impact on the macros of Indian economy??? And, regarding manufacturing, GOI is now only focusing and focusing alone on manufacturing and infrastructure. So, do not feel disheartened.At the same time, India is already one of the top ten manufacturing destinations.Please, check it out.

I am no economist, but at least I know currency rate can affect the macro economy. Example is your real GDP figures are base on US$.

 

[cirr]

Here is India’s currency rate versus the US$ over a 10 years trend.



Ok look at the trend for 10 years. What I see is each time INR appreciated, it loses steam after a short while and then got worst. The trend over a long term show India’s rupee is weakening. There is no evidence of any sustain appreciation.
Yet as the Rupee weakens, India continues to be a net importer. This shows that India has failed to capitalized on its weak Rupee to maximize its exports.

On the other hand, Chinese Yuan has been constantly appreciating to over 25% over the past 8 years. And yet China continues to export.



I am no economist, but at least I know currency rate can affect the macro economy. Example is your real GDP figures are base on US$.

Indians would simply say that the yuan is still under-valued and their beloved rupee is still over-valued after 10 long years.

Yet Indians love talking about PPP when it comes to showcase the size of their economy。

In the eyes and minds of our Indian friends，it is perfectly possible，and indeed sensible， that an over-valued currency yields a higher PPP-calculated GDP for the country in question.

 

[Nan Yang]

Indians would simply say that the yuan is still under-valued and their beloved rupee is still over-valued after 10 long years.

Yet Indians love talking about PPP when it comes to showcase the size of their economy。

In the eyes and minds of our Indian friends，it is perfectly possible，and indeed sensible， that an over-valued currency yields a higher PPP-calculated GDP for the country in question.

I do not blame Indian for loving PPP. In local Rupee currency, their salary increased by 12%.
But I calculated in real terms and it turned out their salary shrink by 2%. And I am no economist either.

 

[cirr]

Pleasing to the eyes of our Indian friends.

Storm in a teacup they'd say.

A necessary though slightly irritating detour in India's inevitable march toward greatness some might argue。

Indians，at least most Indians who frequent this forum，never seem to be minutely bothered by or concerned with any negative news pertinent to India。

India Shining， Forever！

 

[faithfulguy]

Rupee keep on falling. This means that Chinese imports would cost more for average Indians to buy. As Indians has virtually zero manufacturing, average Indians would now pay more for manufacturing products, which drive up inflation, which hurts the Indian economy even more. The Indian gov can't spend more money because of deficits. And cannot print more money because of inflation. No wonder India's GDP growth is predicted to fall below that of Pakistan.

 

[Truth Finder]

I have already discussed Indian economy's micros,macros,fundamentals, rupee's movement and ongoing GOI's economic policies.(inflation now below 5% and FD&CAD waning) I do not want to repeat them again. We can not straighten dog's tail.

 

[Maira La]

India's literary rate was 74% in Feb, 2011 and now(2013) it is almost 77%. (You can check it from Census of India 2011).

Our average life span was 64 yrs in 2011, 65 in 2012 and by the year end it should be 66yrs.

？？？no one died in INdia during the 3 years???at any type predict, no one can add 1 year age/year

I think you do not have the minimum understanding how life span is calculated.

Haha. Indians and their BS. Can you explain how lifespan is calculated, Truth Finder?

 

[Truth Finder]

So, China 2005 was $2 trillion? And China 2012 is $8.2 trillion. So China made a 4x increase in 7 years? Niiiiiice! What was India in 2005? Like $800 billion? And what is India in 2012? $1.8 trillion? So you doubled. Congratulations!

Illiterate. Now answer, how many years will China take to reach $16 trillion from $8 trillion? (3.5 yrs!!!)
Haven't heard of nominal gdp growth???
0

 

[Truth Finder]

Haha. Indians and their BS. Can you explain how lifespan is calculated, Truth Finder?

At 65, Indian life expectancy up 8yrs since 1990 - Times Of India
Dada, ita apner proti.

 

[Maira La]

At 65, Indian life expectancy up 8yrs since 1990 - Times Of India
Dada, ita apner proti.

finder vai, xuxu thik boleche. 2011 theke proti bochor 1 year life expectancy bare kivabe? Tar mane 2011 theke 2014 porjonto India te keo mara jae ni.

 

[ViXuyen]

Rupee keep on falling. This means that Chinese imports would cost more for average Indians to buy. As Indians has virtually zero manufacturing, average Indians would now pay more for manufacturing products, which drive up inflation, which hurts the Indian economy even more. The Indian gov can't spend more money because of deficits. And cannot print more money because of inflation. No wonder India's GDP growth is predicted to fall below that of Pakistan.

India has virtually zero manufacturing? Stop living in your fantasy will you?

They make their own Tata auto that only costs $3k. Their heavy industries can even produce power plant turbine to locomotive. If there is anything, it is the consumer market of India is not strong enough to buy those Indian-made products. If foreign products are getting more expensive for Indian to import, domestic manufacturing industries of India will prosper as more consumers will turn to domestic products. More consumers will add to economy of scales to drive down the prices making Indian-made products more affordable to the mass of the poor ever.

 

[Truth Finder]

finder vai, xuxu thik boleche. 2011 theke proti bochor 1 year life expectancy bare kivabe? Tar mane 2011 theke 2014 porjonto India te keo mara jae ni.

Decrease in mortality rate increases life expectancy.