Why India Will Displace China as Global Growth Engine

[djsjs]

good article!for everybody knows opium is a poison for normal people, but can relieve the suffering of cancer patients

 

[Guynextdoor2]

I won't categorize China as an efficient economy. An efficient economy would be that of Germany and Japan. China still have a lot of rooms to improve.

By efficieny I mean policy making- ability to conceive and execute policies without worrying about several other political factors that democracies like India see. CHina represents a benchmark of high efficiency there because of it's executive government. In general the consensus is that the 'tradeoff' can be upto 2%. So if China is at 11% and if India is at 8-9%, it is acceptable. Below that level, you will find people getting critical here, you will also see that those periods represent high political tension (like right now) where because of political factors the growth has dramatically slowed down.

 

[faithfulguy]

Our economy has bottomed out. The worst is behind us .
And by the way, the day Pakistan will surpass India's growth, it will find itself within India.

If bottom out means that the bottom has fallen off, than I would agree with you. India's growth rate is getting smaller and smaller by the quarter.

By efficieny I mean policy making- ability to conceive and execute policies without worrying about several other political factors that democracies like India see. CHina represents a benchmark of high efficiency there because of it's executive government. In general the consensus is that the 'tradeoff' can be upto 2%. So if China is at 11% and if India is at 8-9%, it is acceptable. Below that level, you will find people getting critical here, you will also see that those periods represent high political tension (like right now) where because of political factors the growth has dramatically slowed down.

India has nothing to worry. India's economy growth is always projected to surpass China's in the next 2-3 years.

 

[Truth Finder]

Bottomed out means it might have reached its low point and could be in the early stages of an upward trend.

 

[Guynextdoor2]

Actually, India growth rate is suppose to surpass China's in 2009. And guess what, it didn't happen. So you have the popular projection of when India will surpass China, which is still 2-3 years out that India will consistently outpaced China. Since this prediction begin about 8 years ago, it have no come to pass. I won't hold my breath until India start to grow faster than China consistently.

Also, these early proponents that India will surpassed China is now disgusted with India. Some people such as Fareed Zakaria had called India the most disappointing countries out of BRICS and even proposed that Indonesia replace India in BRICS.

China's growth story is the opium. Political risk presented by your dictatorship is wayyyyy wayyyy wayyy more dangerous than any offset than India China growth competition. If anyone had doubts that the days of Mao have gone, the recent convulsions during the transfer of power was a gentle reminder that things are the same. Even deng had to face all kinds of problems when he tried to push china into the new age. I don't think we're gonna see those days here in India.

If bottom out means that the bottom has fallen off, than I would agree with you. India's growth rate is getting smaller and smaller by the quarter.



India has nothing to worry. India's economy growth is always projected to surpass China's in the next 2-3 years.

Whther China grows faster than India or not, it will remain a dictatorship, shamefully for at least over a century in the next few decades.

 

[Truth Finder]

In economic terms, if we compare India and China in terms of nominal gdp growth rate( in which China is a $8 trillion dollar economy) we find that India has almost touched China's growth rate and going to surpass it, even in this painful economic condition.

 

[MilSpec]

I find the title xtmely hard to digest.

 

[acid rain]

India is growing less than 5% annually,and from a very low base。

India's dollar GDP has stagnated at about 1.8-2.0 trillion dollars for God knows how many years while in the same time span China's has doubled,with the result that the Chinese economy,including Hong Kong and Macau but excluding Taiwan, will be 5 times India's by the end of this year。

China will continue to expand at rates above 7.5% for the next 10 years,while India will be lucky to average 6% in the next 5 years。

Not likely, Chinese growth rate is to dip below 7% this year, and out of that more than a trillion is virtual and only exists in cooked books, chinese industrial growth has gone in the negative long back. Chinese export figures have already shown to be cooked.

 

[xuxu1457]

A new Q: INdia's GDP in 2013 is the same as China in 2005,
can any one list source INdia in 2013 VS China in 2005
Item ***India(2013)**China(2005)*****
life span: 64 years old**73years old*****
Literacy rate：64%*****96%*******
Foreign exchange reserves:273billion$***819billion $

 

[Truth Finder]

VIVEKANANDA SAYS:-
“We are responsible for what we are, and whatever we wish ourselves to be, we have the power to make ourselves. If what we are now has been the result of our own past actions, it certainly follows that whatever we wish to be in future can be produced by our present actions; so we have to know how to act.”

 

[Truth Finder]

India's literary rate was 74% in Feb, 2011 and now(2013) it is almost 77%. (You can check it from Census of India 2011).

Our average life span was 64 yrs in 2011, 65 in 2012 and by the year end it should be 66yrs.

 

[xuxu1457]

Our average life span was 64 yrs in 2011, 65 in 2012 and by the year end it should be 66yrs.

？？？no one died in INdia during the 3 years???at any type predict, no one can add 1 year age/year

 

[Truth Finder]

I think you do not have the minimum understanding how life span is calculated.

 

[Genesis]

let's say you do pass our 7% growth, that is in no way our highest, so essentially, you are comparing very different stages, the current Chinese economy is in transition. It is moving to mid to higher end manufacturing, service and innovation. Lower end manufacturing is being phased out.

Our growth rate is going to be slowed and may not reach the heights of yesteryears for sometime, if ever.

India at this point is moving to be the manufacturing plant of the world with a few problems, when China started, the competition for that spot is minimal, but today it is not. So while China has taken advantage of the low competition to massively better the country it will not be so easy for India.

So while it may be India could have higher growth, it won't be the growth China had for so long and this is why if we were to look at the whole picture, China is in a better position than India.

 

[Truth Finder]

In 1995, the economy of Japan was 15 times larger than China. Everyone said China would never overtake Japan. But miracle happened in 2009. History repeats itself. It's nothing new. It happened with UK, it happened with Germany and USA. It also happened with Japan.