Why India Will Displace China as Global Growth Engine.

[kewell333]

@Chinese dragon, my bad China exports are at 39.7% of GDP and not 50%.



What constituted to the negative PMI? good to know its improved now.

China exports will be around $2 trillion this year. And GDP will surpass $8 trillion.

So exports is 25% of total GDP.

 

[timetravel]

nice article... India will become the global growth engine without doubt... Also the export oriented Chinese economy is not a model to sustain in the long run in future

Everyone knows in world India is the future.. the Chinese will not accept it and give many useless arguments. India is the future of mankind.

 

[nair]

What difference it makes who grow faster???? Percentage of growth is a confusing term...(when u compare countries) as the base may be different ..... There is no point in competing china... They are way ahead and they will be for quite some time.... I dont see much of things happening in india the way indian politics is going... for doing anything you need to have a strong govt... and most preferably single party majority... without that the govt will depend on regional parties like mamta,mayavati who doesnt care about india as a country all they want to do is protect their votes in their respective states and make money for themselves.... If we have a govt with single party majority (let it be bjp or congress) ... Then the govt can take some serious steps without worrying much about staying in power... I cant see that happening for another 10 years.... Lets hope for the best..

 

[kewell333]

nice article... India will become the global growth engine without doubt... Also the export oriented Chinese economy is not a model to sustain in the long run in future

Everyone knows in world India is the future.. the Chinese will not accept it and give many useless arguments. India is the future of mankind.

How many time we heard Indians said India "will" ? But the fact is the gap between two countries is more and more larger.

 

[Audio]

China exports will be around $2 trillion this year. And GDP will surpass $8 trillion.

So exports is 25% of total GDP.

Export trends
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

38% 35% 27% 30% 31%

If in 2011 gdp was $7.318 trillion and growth is ~7%, even 8, then gdp this year cannot be 8 trillion. Growth would need to be around 10% to reach that target.

All data from World Bank

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Also lovely to see none of the chi-bots tackled my admittedly very crude analysis of the composition of Chinese growth. post #63.

 

[3Idiots]

How many time we heard Indians said India "will" ? But the fact is the gap between two countries is more and more larger.

Like it or not, India makes a huge part of mankind.

Hence, people blow hot or cold, curse or badmouth.. but they find hard to ignore India.

There is nothing we can do about it.

Or you can do about it.

:shrug:

 

[FRANCIS]

Just keep on doing the hard work my countrymen and i am sure one day we will be able to eat the ripe fruits of our efforts .
For now we still have a lot of work left to do .

Only way I see India ever surpassing China in overall power is if the leadership quality in the CPC goes down in the future and becomes very ideological. If this happens China will stagnate and India will close the gap and even surpass China. If China can do important reforms, keep the population employed and happy, reduce corruption as much as possible, not get into any long wars, increase transparency in government (not democracy), then China will be tough to beat for anyone.

So much of arrogance is not going to take to anywhere Mr.
Agreed China is performing pretty well but to downplay any other country which i am sure u dont even know a thing about except the name of the country , is very astonishing .

 

[darkhero]

Export trends
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

38% 35% 27% 30% 31%

If in 2011 gdp was $7.318 trillion and growth is ~7%, even 8, then gdp this year cannot be 8 trillion. Growth would need to be around 10% to reach that target.

All data from World Bank

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Also lovely to see none of the chi-bots tackled my admittedly very crude analysis of the composition of Chinese growth. post #63.

China 2010 GDP 5.9 trillion, 2011 growth rate: 9.2%, 2011 GDP 7.3.

Confused right?

You don't even know how GDP is calculated. You are an idiot in economics. How about just stop making such stupid comments?

 

[Phuket]

The Chinese also save to pay for education for their children and to cover health care and retirement costs because there is no equivalent of Medicare and Social Security.

Poor Chinese. Now I can understand why there are so many insurgents in China.

 

[Phuket]

China 2010 GDP 5.9 trillion, 2011 growth rate: 9.2%, 2011 GDP 7.3.

Confused right?

You don't even know how GDP is calculated. You are an idiot in economics. How about just stop making such stupid comments?

Then why most of your countrymen are still dirt poor? Where does your GDP go?
btw, I can see a lot of them in Korea, extremely happy with the lowest salaries in the eyes of locals.

 

[Audio]

China 2010 GDP 5.9 trillion, 2011 growth rate: 9.2%, 2011 GDP 7.3.

Confused right?

You don't even know how GDP is calculated. You are an idiot in economics. How about just stop making such stupid comments?

That looks like some creative accounting a lot of financial articles have been talking about.
We were talking about a hypothetical 2012 gdp. Can you read?
And no, i do not claim im some economics guru, but it really is simple math.
Stop talking out of your ass in attempts to discredit me because you are out of any valid arguments.

I invite you to look how "glorious" it all is from the perspective of those who are making it happen as opposed to good for nothing students working for the CCP information ministry posting garbage on the internet.

Grim fate of migrant workers maimed in China's 'black factories'

Mainland labour activist He Xiaobo, who lost three fingers in an industrial accident in Foshan in 2006, said Ou's story was typical of the millions of migrant workers who had been disabled in cities in Guangdong in more than three decades of economic reform and opening up.

"Among them, Dongguan and Foshan have the most cases of serious industrial injury," He said. "There are huge surgical departments, especially for hand and arm reattachment surgery, at every township hospital in Dongguan."

He estimated at least 50,000 serious industrial injuries occurred in Foshan every year, more than triple the number acknowledged by the authorities.

Liu Kaiming , director of the Shenzhen-based Institute of Contemporary Observation, said his research suggested that as many as 60,000 of the province's 30 million migrant workers were disabled by industrial accidents every year

.

Grim fate of migrant workers maimed in China's 'black factories' | South China Morning Post

 

[Type 055]

In nepal,90 percent people regect the chinese product.instead indian product is far better.chinese assmbled phone= 1 month,indian =2 year ,that is qwality

A false flagger. You are reported.

Then why most of your countrymen are still dirt poor? Where does your GDP go?
btw, I can see a lot of them in Korea, extremely happy with the lowest salaries in the eyes of locals.

Korean, you made another account.

 

[Type 055]

nice article... India will become the global growth engine without doubt... Also the export oriented Chinese economy is not a model to sustain in the long run in future

Everyone knows in world India is the future.. the Chinese will not accept it and give many useless arguments. India is the future of mankind.

Indian debt based economy is already proving to be unsustainable. The Indian leaders are begging the rating agencies not to be downgraded. Indian deficits are very high, debt levels very high and to prove how unsustained your economic model is.....your currency has collapsed and inflation is at staggering levels. Indian economic numbers are highly manipulated. In India they have 2 books, the real books for internal use and the cooked books for the global media.

Export trends
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

38% 35% 27% 30% 31%

If in 2011 gdp was $7.318 trillion and growth is ~7%, even 8, then gdp this year cannot be 8 trillion. Growth would need to be around 10% to reach that target.

All data from World Bank

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Also lovely to see none of the chi-bots tackled my admittedly very crude analysis of the composition of Chinese growth. post #63.

this guy probably never even heard of the term nominal GDP. Chinese GDP rises from real GDP, currency appreciation and inflation rate. Comparing exports to GDP is very silly, there are some countries where exports are over 100% of GDP. The only thing that matters is NET exports. That's the contribution to GDP. A clueless Indian like yourself wouldn't understand these things.

 

[timetravel]

Indian debt based economy is already proving to be unsustainable. The Indian leaders are begging the rating agencies not to be downgraded. Indian deficits are very high, debt levels very high and to prove how unsustained your economic model is.....your currency has collapsed and inflation is at staggering levels. Indian economic numbers are highly manipulated. In India they have 2 books, the real books for internal use and the cooked books for the global media.

now I know how poor Chinese struggle in their life (based on actual books) but for the world China has 8 trillion GDP (based on ccp books)

 

[Audio]

this guy probably never even heard of the term nominal GDP. Chinese GDP rises from real GDP, currency appreciation and inflation rate. Comparing exports to GDP is very silly, there are some countries where exports are over 100% of GDP. The only thing that matters is NET exports. That's the contribution to GDP. A clueless Indian like yourself wouldn't understand these things.

Creative accounting or Chinese economy. It's a synonim. And those figures i posted above are net figures.

China's GDP is controversial, not least because it's measured differently to other some countries. A Wikileaks US Embassy cable revealed that Liaoning Party Secretary Li Keqiang had called the GDP measure "man made", adding further to the belief by some that it is inaccurate and unreliable.

The problem lies with the official exchange rate - it's established by government regulation and not determined by market forces - so therefore it's seen as not being a reliable measure of China's output in relation to other countries worldwide. As author of Understanding China's Economic Indicators, Tom Orlik wrote in The Wall Street Journal: "China's GDP data is haunted by controversy, with widespread doubts about its accuracy."

I guess Wen Jiabao hasn't got a clue when he says (in direct contradiction to you btw):

The target of 7.5% for 2012 reflects expectations that reduced exports due to the European crisis and a fragile US recovery could dampen growth in the world's second-largest economy.

China GDP: how it has changed since 1980 | News | guardian.co.uk

Doesnt matter huh? Exports in an export oriented economy. Tell me more. pls