Why India Will Displace China as Global Growth Engine.

[Chinese-Dragon]

When I first joined this forum, I started a thread based on an Economist article, saying that India will grow faster than China in a few years time.

But as we've all come to realize here, there is a BIG difference between potential and results. Some inefficieny in the Indian system is stopping them from reaching sustained double-digits, and in fact is forcing them back down below even last decade's growth rate.

 

[neehar]

The only thing India WILL do for sure is keep predicting "India will do this" and "India will do that", and of course the gullible Indians will get happy and open threads on PDF to celebrate it

if you look at the author carefully it says gary shillings...i dnt think hes an indian..

When I first joined this forum, I started a thread based on an Economist article, saying that India will grow faster than China in a few years time.

But as we've all come to realize here, there is a BIG difference between potential and results. Some inefficieny in the Indian system is stopping them from reaching sustained double-digits, and in fact is forcing them back down below even last decade's growth rate.

patience friend..development does not happen in years..it takes decades..and we have jusst started the journey..why in a hurry???india started to perfom well since 2004..its just 2012 now

 

[OrionHunter]

That's just the thing though. The world expected China to collapse after the 1989 Tiananmen incident, but instead we have grown stronger and stronger. We did the opposite of the expectations.

Meanwhile, the world expected India to follow in China's footsteps with many decades of double-digit growth. But India also, has not gone with the expectations.

Everyone HAS potential, everyone. The question is, who is going to turn potential into actual results?

Agreed! But the problem with India is its cacophonous democratic system where vote bank politics is the be-all and end-all of all political parties. Their aim is only personal pelf and power. The country be damned!

Economic reforms that can propel India's growth is a non starter because of these self serving politicians. So talking of double digit growth rates for India is a pipe dream.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Agreed! But the problem with India is its cacophonous democratic system where vote bank politics is the be-all and end-all of all political parties. Their aim is only personal pelf and power. The country be damned!

Economic reforms that can propel India's growth is a non starter because of these self serving politicians. So talking of double digit growth rates for India is pipe dream.

Democracy by itself is not a problem, the important thing is the implementation.

The administrative/economic systems need to be efficient and effective, regardless of whether a country is a democracy or not.

 

[neehar]

Democracy by itself is not a problem, the important thing is the implementation.

The administrative/economic systems need to be efficient and effective, regardless of whether a country is a democracy or not.

thats not always the case..govts are not free to take the decisions here unlike urs...they have to please the people,opposition, coalition partners,media and everybody..so things go slow here

 

[djsjs]

the shelf life if this article is **** years

 

[beijingwalker]

the writer failed to notice and address some fundemantle issues that make the two nations so different,culture and national psyche.Indian people are smart people but this nation lacks some ethics that all oriental peoples all share,unity,collectivism and discipline,those ethics penetrate so deep in the essence of east Asians values and they go beyond political systems and ideologies.highly disciplined people are always relentless when trying to achieve goals,nothing can stop them and they are always ready to make some small personal sacrifice for the common good and the overall interest of the group.I m not talking good or bad,I m just talking about the different ethics,multi cultural India sometime also means big division and people who live in this culture may care more about personal gains and individual interests,so Indian people are very smart,there is no doubt about it but the nation has trouble working as a team,in this particular case,a global growth engine.

 

[Type 055]

lol，another india will do tis，india will do that thread.

This is the only post that matters on the thread. I'm sick of these coulda, woulda, shoulda threads.

 

[djsjs]

thats not always the case..govts are not free to take the decisions here unlike urs...they have to please the people,opposition, coalition partners,media and everybody..so things go slow here

a lot of famous economists hated democracy but they dare not say it to the public.

the writer failed to notice and address some fundemantle issues that make the two nations so different,culture and national psyche.Indian people are smart people but this nation lacks some ethics that all oriental peoples all share,unity,collectivism and discipline,those ethics penetrate so deep in the essence of east Asians values and they go beyond political systems and ideologies.highly disciplined people are always relentless when trying to achieve goals,nothing can stop them and they are always ready to make some small personal sacrifice for the common good and the overall interest of the group.I m not talking good or bad,I m just talking about the different ethics,multi cultural India sometime also means big division and people who live in this culture may care more about personal gains and individual interests,so Indian people are very smart,there is no doubt about it but the nation has trouble working as a team,in this particular case,a global growth engine.

agree. and Germans have similar national psyche with east asia people,they did well in the past.

 

[beijingwalker]

Chinese lecturing about ethics...yeah right sounds legit

we all have ethics,they can be different,but we all do.

 

[Shardul.....the lion]

democracy, bureaucracy,corruption, absence of reforms, huge population, weak manufacturing base lower literacy rates

So many constraints for progress, but keep faith.

We may not overtake China in growth but we will definitely compete hard.

 

[Wright]

the writer failed to notice and address some fundemantle issues that make the two nations so different,culture and national psyche.Indian people are smart people but this nation lacks some ethics that all oriental peoples all share,unity,collectivism and discipline,those ethics penetrate so deep in the essence of east Asians values and they go beyond political systems and ideologies.highly disciplined people are always relentless when trying to achieve goals,nothing can stop them and they are always ready to make some small personal sacrifice for the common good and the overall interest of the group.I m not talking good or bad,I m just talking about the different ethics,multi cultural India sometime also means big division and people who live in this culture may care more about personal gains and individual interests,so Indian people are very smart,there is no doubt about it but the nation has trouble working as a team,in this particular case,a global growth engine.

Yup, homogeniety brings its benefits. The Japanese and Koreans would be held back if they had all the religious, ethnic tensions, etc, that are commonplace in diverse societies.

 

[3Idiots]

India is already growing ... and it isn't growing china's way.
(and it won't)

china is mining out 3500 million tons of coal (50% of world production !!), cement (read limestone), gold etc. etc.; and exporting the same, mixed with it's exports.

India will probably contribute to global growth, more or less the way it already does.. though at an even larger scale in the years to come.. and that is by importing energy (oil, coal and gas) but exporting services or all kinds, mostly related to human intellect, innovation and developed skillset.

For the manufacturing sector, the indigenous demand will continue to be too high to fulfill before large scale exports happen. And it's unlikely that anyone is going to allow so much of our coal to be burnt for benefit of consumers abroad.

Things could off course change if low cost exports from china dry up as their coal supply exhausts.. and india will adjust to it as the rest of the world does.

 

[ahfatzia]

Whether India will replace China as global growth engine in the future is a matter of debates. But the two countries, along with ASEAN nations, will be the anchors of world economic growth the next few years for sure.


Asia returns on track, but Japan lags - China.org.cn

 

[Audio]

Whether India will replace China as global growth engine in the future is a matter of debates. But the two countries, along with ASEAN nations, will be the anchors of world economic growth the next few years for sure.


Asia returns on track, but Japan lags - China.org.cn

lol seriously? source has more then enough reasons to portrait a much more rosy picture then it is. Reading the last paragraph convinced me even more this is a feel good article straight from the mouthpiece of the regime.

Until now, Beijing’s monthly import and export numbers have been considered absolutely reliable, yet there is growing evidence to suggest that in recent months they have been distorted by fabricated transactions.
Especially suspect are the export figures for this September and October. China’s exports for September soared 9.9% year-on-year. In the following month, they jumped 11.6%. For many observers, the September number signaled the beginning of the long-awaited recovery of the Chinese economy. The September-October period is now beginning to look like an anomaly from the baseline, represented by the more-typical August and November figures. In fact, the numbers for August and November look remarkably similar. In August, exports increased 2.7%. In November, they were up 2.9%. Imports, always a key sign of growth, fell 2.6% in August. In November, they were unchanged.

China's Recent Trade Statistics Have Been Artificially Inflated

I know it's Gordon Chang, but he is not the only one pointing at this"irregularities".