I wrote about this a while back, here are my 50 cents...
Brexit has presented several challenges for Europe, beyond the financial and administrative challenges of a member state leaving the union, Europe has been suffering from a lack of integration and lack of engagement from its member states.
To quote Jean Claude Junker "Our Europe is not in a good state, there is not enough Europe in this union, and there is not enough union in this union".
This epigrammatic message underlines perhaps one of the greatest challenges facing the European union, which is how will France and Germany manage their cooperation and the role Germany will play in the new Europe.
Internal power struggles and discord among Western, Central and Eastern European member states and their internal interests provides a glimpse into the general lack of political will to achieve the EU's objectives of building stability in Europe and along its strategic borders, in line with the European Neighbourhood Policy, 2004.
Security: On the security front, with threats from hybrid warfare and frozen conflicts along the crucial eastern border with Balkan states, uncontrolled migration, risk of returning foreign fighters, asymmetric warfare and individual self-radicalisation; Europe faces some considerable security challenges over the coming years.
Furthermore, the European Union's membership of NATO means that Russia sees the Union as a strategic buffer for NATO and a challenge to its long-term interests to exert Russian influence in the region bordering eastern Europe.
Russia has been engaged in testing the E.Us boundary lines and response times through snap exercises. Moscow's doctrine of Anti access and area denial seeks to deny NATO forces any access in key areas bordering Russia such as the Black Sea, Baltic Sea, the far north and eastern Mediterranean by deploying missile batteries and anti-air defences.
The hardening of Moscow's posture towards the EU has come as a result of the EU's stance towards Russia, which mirrors NATO policy of maintaining deterrence through superiority.
The E.U's reliance on NATO's deterrence mantra is ultimately no guarantee against small scale surprise Russian offensives such as the one seen in South Ossetia, Georgia in 2008 and the support of partisan forces as witnessed in the Crimea, ultimately due to Russia's ability to leverage its nuclear assets to its tactical advantage.
Russia's ambition is to regain the strategic depth it lost with the dissolution of the Soviet Union should be a cause for concern for Europe.
In recent years, in light of political uncertainty in Europe and U.S frustrations in Afghanistan and Syria, Russia has capitalised on the chaos to showcase its role as a major power broker.
Russia has engaged China and Pakistan to host talks with the Taliban in Afghanistan in at attempt gain importance in the international relations arena as a broker for peace and regional stability.
Russia continues to see the Georgian NATO membership bid as expansionism and thus will continue to pose a risk to E.U ambitions of stability and greater integration.
With frozen conflicts in Georgia and Ukraine, the risk of a flashpoint along the eastern border is a risk that the EU must address by taking the Visegrad group of nations into confidence on EUs future stance on Russia.
Another area of concern for Europe comes from the growing instability the Mediterranean along the border of Greece and Turkey. The slow return of irregular migrants to Turkey from Greece has frustrated EU efforts to strengthen border controls.
Terrorism and countering extremist violence:
On terrorism and countering radicalisation the emerging trend for Europe's recent terrorism incidents have been self-radicalised individuals and groups sympathetic to ISIL propaganda.
The Mediterranean sea and the porous border between Greece and Turkey pose a risk of returning fighters infiltrating the country along with irregular migrants. The challenge here will be for Europe to engage turkey under the ENP.
Increased maritime patrols along the Mediterranean Sea and Turkish cooperation on controlling migration and expediting returns will be key to reducing the risk of foreign fighter infiltration. Europe's key challenges will be how they handle foreign and domestic policies, control irregular migration, counter extremist narratives and increase cooperation on internal and external security.
In the years to follow, security will improve but it will be important for the EU to balance the Triade of solidarity, greater integration and checks and balances.
References:
Migration as a security threat: internal and external dynamics in the European Union Michela Ceccorulli, Forum on the Problems of Peace and War, Florence GARNET Working Paper No: 65/09 April 2009
JOINT REPORT TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS Report on the Implementation of the European Neighbourhood Policy Review
Report on the Implementation of the European Security Strategy - Providing Security in a Changing World -
EUROPOL TE-SAT 2016 Harretz - world News - Europe: deja Vu: Why is Russia Back in Afghanistan?
The Guardian - Jan 03 2016 - brexit is bad for Europe and Britain EU Referendum.
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