What's new

Why China Will Reclaim Siberia

Status
Not open for further replies.
Nobody want to live in such a cold place. Not the Russian nor Chinese. There are probably more Chinese in Moscow then in Russia far East.
Even North East China population is declining. It's too cold.
oh...really?
i hope the russians think like you & give up useless siberia to china.
:cheesy:
 
oh...really?
i hope the russians think like you & give up useless siberia to china.
:cheesy:

The Chinese 'Invasion' Of Siberia Is A Myth
The idea that a resurgent and overpopulated China will inevitably take over the quickly-depopulating lands of Eastern Siberia is a common one. Writing in Commentary, Michael Rubin noted the swiftly growing numbers of Chinese living in Siberia and speculated that China has designs on Russia’s Asian possessions. The Diplomat published an article straightforwardly titled “China’s Russian Invasion” and numerous other outlets such as the Harvard International Review, ABC News,France 24, and the BBC have produced content which strongly suggests that a Chinese takeover of the Russian Far East is a matter of when, not if. I can personally attest that the “Chinese invasion” hypothesis is broadly accepted by the Washington elite: for such a seemingly obscure topic, it is casually dropped into both small talk and formal speeches with surprising frequency. “Everyone knows” that an increasingly dynamic China will dominate a Russia that is vodka soaked and dying.

I’m not sure how much of this invasion enthusiasm is traceable to Tom Clancy’s popular novel The Bear and The Dragon, in which the Americans and the Russians team up to defeat an Chinese annexation of (you guessed it!) Eastern Siberia, and how much is the result of simple panic at China’s unprecedentedly rapid rise to global prominence. To be perfectly honest, I don’t really care why so many people get so worked up about the Chinese, the Russians, and a largely desolate area in which very few people live. What I do care about is that the “Chinese invasion” is a myth: it simply is not taking place and, given the demographic trends, there’s no reason to expect that it will take place.

What makes me so confident in making such an assertion? Well the population of the Chinese provinces bordering Russia, the areas that would be expected to export people, is already stagnant:



But why is their population stagnating? Maybe everyone has already decamped for Russia? Well the regions bordering Russia have seen their natural rates of population change (i.e. the rate at which births exceed deaths) plummet rapidly. As people have fewer and fewer children China’s population has started to age rapidly. The regions bordering Russia, though, have aged far more rapidly than China as a whole. In fact, if current trends continue, within the next several years the Chinese population on the Russian border will start to shrink.


If the Chinese aren’t moving to Siberia where are they moving? Well in a pattern that precisely matches what you would expect to see in country that is rapidly urbanizing, the Chinese mostly seem to be moving to the big cities. In contrast to the stagnation of the Russian border region, the populations of major economic centers like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong are exploding


The simple (and rather banal) truth is that no one seems to want to live in Eastern Siberia. Russian statistics shows that the Russian Far East is losing people to other parts of Russia. Chinese statistics show that the Chinese provinces bordering Russia are demographically stagnant and on the verge of natural population loss. What no statistics anywhere show is a sustained Chinese push into the virgin lands of Siberia.

Given the reality of a China that is swiftly becoming more educated and more urbanized, and also given the reality of China’s rapid demographic transition, there is no reason to expect that there will be a sudden increase in the already-low demand for living in an obscure, rural region with a horrific climate and an underdeveloped economy. China’s population is quickly becoming more concentrated in areas with higher standards of living and better economic opportunities. This will create major challenges for municipal governments and for the Chinese communist party, and could lead to severe political and economic problems. But what it absolutely won’t lead to is a Chinese “invasion” of the Russian Far East. Unless there is a dramatic change in government policy, the region will remain what it has always been: an underpopulated backwater.


I used to live in cold England. Winter is miserable. Its cold. It cost money to heat the house, it get dark at 4pm! I slipped twice while cycling. Snow sticks to your shoes and jeans. Cold wind blows non-stop for days! The moment you open the door everybody scream at you to shut it. I cannot imagine living in Heilongjiang let alone Russia Far East ! You can go there if you want !
 
Last edited:
You are very frank. I think the same as you.

But China must not get it via war. If there is chances that Russia break apart, then China may carpe diem.

We are not backstabber, if we wanna really do that then we would have double crossed them during the US sanctions.

We'll be aware of it :sniper:

lol, South China was never your land since the beginning, just keep dreaming about that.
 
Last edited:
Nope. It isn't gonna happen before Russia officially cann't hold the region. Also a number of independent former republics will emerge. China's current attention is east&south-ward, in the opposite direction.

Indeed. A unified and strong China under President Putin is the best for China in terms of its national security and global positioning.

China respects and supports Russia's national sovereignty and unity. The two nations' view of international governance is pretty much aligned. That historical bloc is a balance for a multipolar world system. Syria is a case in point.

***

Russia Just Pulled Itself Out Of The Petrodollar
By Tyler Durden
Global Research, January 16, 2015
124542.jpg

Back in November, before most grasped just how serious the collapse in crude was (and would become, as well as its massive implications), we wrote “How The Petrodollar Quietly Died, And Nobody Noticed“, because for the first time in almost two decades, energy-exporting countries would pull their “petrodollars” out of world markets in 2015.

This empirical death of Petrodollar followed years of windfalls for oil exporters such as Russia, Angola, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria. Much of that money found its way into financial markets, helping to boost asset prices and keep the cost of borrowing down, through so-called petrodollar recycling.

We added that in 2014 “the oil producers will effectively import capital amounting to $7.6 billion. By comparison, they exported $60 billion in 2013 and $248 billion in 2012, according to the following graphic based on BNP Paribas calculations.”



The problem was compounded by its own positive feedback loop: as the last few weeks vividly demonstrated, plunging oil would lead to a further liquidation in foreign reserves for the oil exporters who rushed to preserve their currencies, leading to even greater drops in oil as the viable producers rushed to pump out as much crude out of the ground as possible in a scramble to put the weakest producers out of business, and to crush marginal production. Call it Game Theory gone mad and on steroids.

Ironically, when the price of crude started its self-reinforcing plunge, such a death would happen whether the petrodollar participants wanted it, or, as the case may be, were dragged into the abattoir kicking and screaming.

It is the latter that seems to have taken place with the one country that many though initially would do everything in its power to have an amicable departure from the Petrodollar and yet whose divorce from the USD has quickly become a very messy affair, with lots of screaming and the occasional artillery shell.

As Bloomberg reports Russia may unseal its $88 billion Reserve Fund and convert some of its foreign-currency holdings into rubles, the latest government effort to prop up an economy veering into its worst slump since 2009.”

These are dollars which Russia would have otherwise recycled into US denominated assets. Instead, Russia will purchase even more Rubles and use the proceeds for FX and economic stabilization purposes.

“Together with the central bank, we are selling a part of our foreign-currency reserves,” Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said in Moscow today. “We’ll get rubles and place them in deposits for banks, giving liquidity to the economy.

Call it less than amicable divorce, call it what you will: what it is, is Russia violently leaving the ranks of countries that exchange crude for US paper.

More:

Russia may convert as much as 500 billion rubles from one of the government’s two sovereign wealth funds to support the national currency, Siluanov said, calling the ruble “undervalued.” The Finance Ministry last month started selling foreign currency remaining on the Treasury’s accounts.

The entire 500 billion rubles or part of the amount will be converted in January-February through the central bank, according to Deputy Finance Minister Alexey Moiseev. The Bank of Russia will determine the timing and method of the operation.

The ruble, the world’s second-worst performing currency last year, weakened for a fourth day, losing 1.3 percent to 66.0775 against the dollar by 3:21 p.m. in Moscow. It trimmed a drop of as much as 2 percent after Siluanov’s comments. The ruble’s continued slump this year underscores the fragility of coordinated measures by Russia’s government and central bank that steered the ruble’s rebound from a record-low intraday level of 80.10 on Dec. 16. OAO Gazprom and four other state-controlled exporters were ordered last month to cut foreign-currency holdings by March 1 to levels no higher than they were on Oct. 1. The central bank sought to make it easier for banks to access dollars and euros while raising its key rate to 17 percent, the emergency level it introduced last month to arrest the ruble collapse.

Today’s announcement “looks ruble-supportive, as together with state-driven selling from exporters it would support FX supply on the market,” Dmitry Polevoy, chief economist for Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States at ING Groep NV in Moscow, said by e-mail. “Also, it will be helpful for banks, while there might be some negative effects related to extra money supply and risks of using some of the money on the FX market for short-term speculations.

Bloomberg’s dready summary of the US economy is generally spot on, and is to be expected when any nation finally leaves, voluntarily or otherwise, the stranglehold of a global reserve currency. What Bloomberg failed to account for is what happens to the remainder of the Petrodollar world. Here is what we said last time:

Outside from the domestic economic impact within EMs due to the downward oil price shock, we believe that the implications for financial market liquidity via the reduced recycling of petrodollars should not be underestimated. Because energy exporters do not fully invest their export receipts and effectively ‘save’ a considerable portion of their income, these surplus funds find their way back into bank deposits (fuelling the loan market) as well as into financial markets and other assets. This capital has helped fund debt among importers, helping to boost overall growth as well as other financial markets liquidity conditions.


[T]his year, we expect that incremental liquidity typically provided by such recycled flows will be markedly reduced, estimating that direct and other capital outflows from energy exporters will have declined by USD253bn YoY. Of course, these economies also receive inward capital, so on a net basis, the additional capital provided externally is much lower. This year, we expect that net capital flows will be negative for EM, representing the first net inflow of capital (USD8bn) for the first time in eighteen years. This compares with USD60bn last year, which itself was down from USD248bn in 2012. At its peak, recycled EM petro dollars amounted to USD511bn back in 2006. The declines seen since 2006 not only reflect the changed global environment, but also the propensity of underlying exporters to begin investing the money domestically rather than save. The implications for financial markets liquidity – not to mention related downward pressure on US Treasury yields – is negative.

Considering the wildly violent moves we have seen so far in the market confirming just how little liquidity is left in the market, and of course, the absolutely collapse in Treasury yields, with the 30 Year just hitting a record low, this prediction has been borne out precisely as expected.

And now, we await to see which other country will follow Russia out of the Petrodollar next, and what impact that will have not only on the world’s reserve currency, on US Treasury rates, and on the most financialized commodity as this chart demonstrates





… but on what is most important to developed world central planners everywhere: asset prices levels, and specifically what happens when the sellers emerge into what is rapidly shaping up as the most illiquid market in history.
 
We are not backstabber, if we wanna really do that then we would have double crossed them during the US sanctions.



lol, South China was never your land since the beginning, just keep dreaming about that.
Vietnamese want Chinese land is simply dreaming, recent China is no Qing dynasty before.
 
Last edited:
Nice article trying to spoil the relation between China and Russia but this westerner author think that we Chinese are so naive to take the bait :lol:: Nowaday China and Russia complement each other economy, we're just doing great and keep continue this way.

To add some taste into western fantasy fiction about China to reclaim Siberia, then I only wish that Chinese and Russia to form a new nation and call ourself the "Siberian", there is alot of intermarriage throughtout Chinese and Russian History, so interrariage between Chinese and Russia will only eliminate the mistrust amoung ourself and strenghtening our relation.... But remember when Han combined with Xianbei (鮮卑族) which later build Tang empire, we became unstoppable...

Here a video show a loverly Sino-Russian kid
【俄罗斯不可思议】俄罗斯女人嫁给中国男人的好处—在线播放—优酷网,视频高清在线观看
 
Last edited:
In today world, it is impossible to invade a country against the will of the people. It is equally, if not impossible, to invade a nuclear state.

We have no intention to take anybody land, but rest assure, anyone who eyes our territory will face with absolute destruction by their adventurism.
 
No one want to claim Siberia,but China shouldn't trust Russia,the Russians don't trust us either,we should have normal relation just as China and America's

另外,普京崇拜者们,没必要在该论坛给普京唱赞歌。你在该论坛赞美一百遍普京,普京依旧会在东亚持均衡政策,俄罗斯和美国是对手,但在遏制中国崛起问题上利益高度重叠,国际政治并不只是“朋友”和“敌人”,就如越南同时是俄罗斯和美国的盟友一样,因为越南和俄罗斯交好并不会损害美国利益,只要越南能牵制中国就符合美国利益,而越南从俄罗斯得到武器确实能起到遏制中国的作用,所以符合美国利益,就是这么简单,你们这些亲俄人士是不会或不愿看到的
同样,印度强大也同时符合美俄利益
相反这里一厢情愿希望俄罗斯强大的人,俄罗斯并不希望你强大,这就是反差。热脸贴冷屁股让人感觉下贱
 
To be frank ,Some of Chinese actually want to reclaim it , but i think the thinking is not realistic.

Why not realistic??? Because you can't bully them like other neighbors of yours.
 
Not Western. Western culture is Greek culture. German culture is Western. American culture is Jewish culture.

Don't forget. The US still prevents China from reclaiming Taiwan.

Seriously? American culture is a hodgepodge due to it being an immigrant nation. Secondly, what is up with this negative association with Judaism?

"Jewish" is an adjective to describe one who worships G-d in the Judaic tradition and upholds the Halakha , or the Mosaic Laws. Since the overwhelming majority of Americans belong to the Christian Faith , it is impossible to say that am American culture is 'Jewish'. Perhaps a more accurate observation is -- the Jewish identity -- is part of the internal millieu that makes up the Greater America Identity --- the same way as how it is possible to be Muslim and still be as American as the next Hussain, Joe, Shlomo, Xi, Tanaka or Gonzalez.

Even the country that you live in -- The Dominion of Canada -- is as heterogenous as the United States.

Cheers.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom