Patriot786b2
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Why China Is Winning Against India.
There
are several global developments jostling for the world’s attention right now—the upcoming inauguration of U.S. President-elect Joe Biden, Britain’s exit from the European Union, a worrying hack of U.S. government systems, and the race to administer coronavirus vaccines across the planet. Amid these major news stories, the 8-month-old military standoff in the Himalayas between Asia’s two biggest countries, China and India, has fallen off the radar of global concern. While pundits agree that Asia is the site of an ongoing shift in the global power balance, what gets little attention is how New Delhi’s reworking of military priorities—forced by events on the disputed Sino-Indian border—will have far-reaching geopolitical consequences for the world.
The past year’s skirmishes between India and China are often described by commentators as a stalemate. While this may be literally true, two factors should alter that perception. First, China has far deeper pockets, especially after a year in which it has bounced back from the coronavirus pandemic while India has fallen into a recession. And second, Beijing has forced New Delhi to focus on securing its land borders at the cost of its strategic military transformation, handing China a clear long-term advantage.
There are no easy answers to India’s China problem.
In contrast, China is already constructing its third aircraft carrier, as part of the Chinese navy’s plans for six carriers by 2035. Beijing’s defense budget is nearly four times that of India and its economy six times bigger—a gap that has widened during the pandemic. China’s army is the largest standing ground force in the world, with 1.5 times more active military personnel than India in its ranks. As the U.S. Defense Department acknowledges, China has marshaled the resources, technology, and political will over the past two decades to strengthen and modernize its military in nearly every respect. Unlike India, the Chinese economy, military, and political leadership have the capacity to bear the burden of the prolonged deployment and maintenance of large bodies of troops in the extremely inhospitable conditions of Ladakh.
It would not have been difficult for Beijing to predict New Delhi’s current predicament. For years, the government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been obsessed with hyping minor operations against Pakistan to reap electoral benefits, putting on the back burner the military transformation required to deal with a rising China. With India’s economy now having entered a recession, such a major reform has become an impossibility. There are no easy answers to India’s China problem. Unless there is a dramatic shift in New Delhi’s thinking, its cure of the Ladakh border crisis may end up being worse than the disease—and that’s exactly what Beijing wants.
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There
are several global developments jostling for the world’s attention right now—the upcoming inauguration of U.S. President-elect Joe Biden, Britain’s exit from the European Union, a worrying hack of U.S. government systems, and the race to administer coronavirus vaccines across the planet. Amid these major news stories, the 8-month-old military standoff in the Himalayas between Asia’s two biggest countries, China and India, has fallen off the radar of global concern. While pundits agree that Asia is the site of an ongoing shift in the global power balance, what gets little attention is how New Delhi’s reworking of military priorities—forced by events on the disputed Sino-Indian border—will have far-reaching geopolitical consequences for the world.
The past year’s skirmishes between India and China are often described by commentators as a stalemate. While this may be literally true, two factors should alter that perception. First, China has far deeper pockets, especially after a year in which it has bounced back from the coronavirus pandemic while India has fallen into a recession. And second, Beijing has forced New Delhi to focus on securing its land borders at the cost of its strategic military transformation, handing China a clear long-term advantage.
There are no easy answers to India’s China problem.
In contrast, China is already constructing its third aircraft carrier, as part of the Chinese navy’s plans for six carriers by 2035. Beijing’s defense budget is nearly four times that of India and its economy six times bigger—a gap that has widened during the pandemic. China’s army is the largest standing ground force in the world, with 1.5 times more active military personnel than India in its ranks. As the U.S. Defense Department acknowledges, China has marshaled the resources, technology, and political will over the past two decades to strengthen and modernize its military in nearly every respect. Unlike India, the Chinese economy, military, and political leadership have the capacity to bear the burden of the prolonged deployment and maintenance of large bodies of troops in the extremely inhospitable conditions of Ladakh.
It would not have been difficult for Beijing to predict New Delhi’s current predicament. For years, the government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been obsessed with hyping minor operations against Pakistan to reap electoral benefits, putting on the back burner the military transformation required to deal with a rising China. With India’s economy now having entered a recession, such a major reform has become an impossibility. There are no easy answers to India’s China problem. Unless there is a dramatic shift in New Delhi’s thinking, its cure of the Ladakh border crisis may end up being worse than the disease—and that’s exactly what Beijing wants.
Why China Is Winning Against India
The military standoff in the Himalayas is often seen as a stalemate between two nuclear powers. But New Delhi cannot afford the status quo.
flip.it
