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Why China is taking over the ‘American century’

1) In 2020 median age in China is 38,4 while USA's median age is 38,3---and China is aging very rapidly due to one child policy....in the near future average Chinese will be several years older than average American with all the consequences it will have for economy, (especially for Chinese desire to swith to economy based on consumption)

2) Total corporate/household/government debt in China is 320% of GDP and is growing very rapidly...Corporate debt alone is 190% of GDP...This is very high for a country at this level of economic development and increases the risk of financial crises similar to Japan in 1990s

3) Chinese Navy's power projection capabilities will be comparable to USA's only in 2040 or later

4) entire Chinese trade---its exports.... and its imports of food/oil/raw materials pass through the oceans controlled by the US Navy and this will not change until 2040.

(for example if USA decides to start a war with Iran in the Persian Gulf, oil supplies to China will stall and this will generate a massive economic shock to highly indebted Chinese economy...and CHina can do nothing about it due to power projection limits of PLA......at the same time USA has its own shale oil production and can be nearly immune to oil crisis in the Persian Gulf)

In general Chinese economic model is a copy of Japanese economic model.

Do you remember what happened with Japan?

In 1980 there was a Japanophobia in USA with concerns that Japan is going to overtake USA as a next superpower

At first Japan was growing 10% a year from 1950 until 1987 and then suddenly Japanese economic growth slowed to 1% a year from 1990 until 2020.

Japanese had high saving rates and this generated high level of investments and high rates of GDP growth.

There are three types of economic growth: 1)export driven growth 2)investment driven growth 3)consumption driven growth

When Japan exhausted all three types of growth models--- its economy stalled.

China is the same as Japan: high rate of savings generate high rates of investment and high rates of GDP growth

1) First Chinese economy grows through boosting exports (1984-2008)----in 2008 this model exhausted itself

2) Then China grows through boosting investments----it tells the local governments to borrow money from banks and build infrastructure and tells state owned companies to borrow money from banks and build new factories even if they are not very profitable----but as corporate debt is 190% of GDP (the highest in the world) and total debt is 320% of GDP-----investment driven growth is no longer possible

3) There is a hope to switch to economy based on consumption----but consumption is mainly made by younger generations---as China is aging rapidly---consumption driven growth is impossible

So probably Chinese economy will stall this decade like Japanese economy did in 1990, because all three types of growth (export driven/investment driven/consumption driven) is coming to their limits in China
Much of the world will be in demographic decline from 2050-2100. That includes most of East Asia, Europe, the America's and even India. This is not just an issue for China.

Japan never had an innovative tech sector that could compete with American companies in the late 90's. China does. This is why USA is targeting Chinese tech companies. Technology and innovation will be a key battle ground between China and USA over the century.

Japan also never had a greater sphere of influence like China is developing today. This is why BRI is such a huge problem for USA to accept.
 
Most Chinese products are for domestic consumption

China to Overtake U.S. as World’s Largest Retail Market this year
https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/23/business/china-retail-sales-us/index.html

Chinese exports is 19% of GDP and most of it goes to USA/Japan/South Korea/Europe---and now these countries are in recession meaning that they can't buy your exports----so your exporters will fail to sell their goods and earn profit--and this means crises in China

USA exports is only 12% of GDP and most of its exports go to Canada and Mexico---meaning North America in general is self-sufficient and independent from outside world
 
and now these countries are in recession meaning that they can't buy your exports----so your exporters will fail to sell their goods and earn profit--and this means crises in China

China July exports rise at fastest pace in seven months, 7.2% increase
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/chin...crease-but-imports-fall.679661/#post-12620322
Despite worries its export machine would contract sharply amid a slump in global demand caused by the coronavirus and the trade war with the US, China’s resilient exports recorded a surprise rise of 7.2 per cent in July compared to a year earlier.

This was the third increase in the last four months.
 
Japan also never had a greater sphere of influence like China is developing today. This is why BRI is such a huge problem for USA to accept.

Japan is a small country , it never had produced or consumed this much in the global share.

china-commodity-demand.jpg


ChinaUSTradeBiggerTradePartnerMarch2020%281%29-750x591.png
 
The future of China looks pretty bleak to me.

Birth rates are deteriorating (I believe one-child policy was one of the gravest mistakes tha the communist party of China made), their best minds migrating all over the world for a better life and their inflated real estate market is a ticking time bomb (I admit that Australian housing market is in a similar situation, but Australia is in a far better position as migrants are flooding in Australia, including rich Chinese).

I understand that China is trying to advance their industry to offset their increasing labour costs, but really they aren't making much progresses and factories are flocking to South East Asia where offers cheaper labour.

However, who knows? It seems like all Chinese, some of them are smart indivisuals, I have met also understand their problems and they may come up with solutions.
 
By the way, China grows one Australia in GDP each year.

Good for China. Then again, I wonder why Chinese, especially wealthy and skilled workers keep migrating to Australia if they have such a great economy in China. I mean shouldn't they do their patriotic duty of staying in China and participating in child-bearing to support their aging population?

Perhaps, GDP is meaningless to each indivisual and Australia offers far better quality of life, economic opportunities and social securities? I mean there must be something that attracts young Chinese to this land. Something better than China.
 
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Good for China. Then again, I wonder why Chinese, especially wealthy and skilled workers keep migrating to Australia if they have such a great economy in China. I mean shouldn't they do their patrotic duty of staying in China and participating in child-bearing to support their aging population?

Perhaps, GDP is meaningless to each indivisual and Australia offers far better quality of life, economic opportunities and social securities? I mean there must be something that attracts young Chinese to this land. Something better than China.
Australia is an immigration country and has better living conditions than China, we never denied it and immigration to China is almost impossible because of the Chinese laws.
So called ageing population in China is hyped piece of propaganda by the west, China still grows very healthily, but the US is declining fast, in most economic categories and indicators , China already overtook US for years.
 
I really, really wish America would do more to cooperate with China. All America's antagonism has gotten us is isolation from others while China reaps the benefits.
 
911 attacks was the start of new USA century.
Iran Deal was the end of new USA century.
Coronavirus is the start of new Chinese century.
 

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