Why A U.S.-Iran War Isn't Going To Happen

[OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ]

There is a philosophical view and a more raw one... the later is where unpredictability lies... but then action itself is out of established norms... I don't know how much sanity will prevail in Iranian inner circles given that rationally Iran doesn't stand a chance in an open confrontation.

 

[khansaheeb]

Iran already crossed the line last month but since it is announcing it at this moment, Iran is most probably reminding the US and the world of the consequences that can take place in the near future.

Israel had been hitting Iranian targets in Syria on a daily basis so they had been raising the stakes. Netanyu has been pleading for direct US intervention for some time, so the action is not a surprise.

Writer is looking at policies of Obama but Trump is an idiot. He assassinated an Iranian official without a plan and brought the world to the brink of WWIII.

How do you know he doesn't have a plan? All the military assets have been placed and ready for some time and new ones shifted recently. The hawks were placed in key positions and have been braying for war.

 

[TexasJohn]

Pakistan is traditionally a US and Saudi ally, but it has a Shiite population and nationalists that think of Iran highly for her stance against the United States. The Pakistani politicians will probably try to stay away from the heat as far as possible.

That aside, in my experience, Pakistanis are by far the most likely group of people to react to this situation based on the idea of Ummah and unity among Muslims. Even today there were huge protests in Karachi that were larger than protests in other Islamic countries, excluding Iran and Iraq.

It is interesting that protests in Karachi are larger than some Islamic countries. I interact with many foreign students here at the University, the Pakistani students tell me that Pakistanis try to be more Arab than the Arabs themselves, and Iranian students make it a point to remind me they are NOT Arab and have their own language and are proud of it! Saudi and US of course as you know are bedfellows of convenience. It's been that way for years and years, something I don't quite approve of.

There is a philosophical view and a more raw one... the later is where unpredictability lies... but then action itself is out of established norms... I don't know how much sanity will prevail in Iranian inner circles given that rationally Iran doesn't stand a chance in an open confrontation.

I don't think there will be an open confrontation either. Yes, the US killed the second most powerful man in Iran, but he was overconfident that no one would touch him and was pretty open about where he was. So he painted a big target on his back. The US saw the opportunity and took it, also killing a high ranking Hezbollah target I believe.

Iran will have to make a response, but one that does not unleash the full fury of the US Armed forces. Asymmetrical response if you will

 

[Arian]

It is interesting that protests in Karachi are larger than some Islamic countries. I interact with many foreign students here at the University, the Pakistani students tell me that Pakistanis try to be more Arab than the Arabs themselves, and Iranian students make it a point to remind me they are NOT Arab and have their own language and are proud of it! Saudi and US of course as you know are bedfellows of convenience. It's been that way for years and years, something I don't quite approve of.

Iran will have to make a response, but one that does not unleash the full fury of the US Armed forces. Asymmetrical response if you will

Well, there are political and cultural reasons for that. Historically, Pakistanis fought for independence from India because they were Muslims. It's no wonder that religion plays such a big role in the Pakistani mentality and culture. With Iranians, it's different. Our country has been there long before Islam and we have hosted major empires before and after Islam. Islam is not that big a factor for us as it is for Pakistan. As for siding with Saudis, Pakistanis feel obligated to maintain amicable ties with Saudi Arabia because apparently the Saudis funded their nuclear program and continue to outsource Pakistanis and Indians. Even though most Pakistani immigrants are treated poorly in Arab countries, but Pakistanis still prefer to side with them mostly for economic benefits.

Your government has asked for an equal response in a conventional way in one of the letters submitted to the Iranian authorities through the Swiss embassy. Of course the main purpose of the letter was mostly to provoke Iran to make a hasty move.

Yes, the US killed the second most powerful man in Iran, but he was overconfident that no one would touch him and was pretty open about where he was. So he painted a big target on his back.

I disagree with you on this completely. He was on an official visit to Iraq at the request of the Iraqi government. Do you send tanks, helicopters and jet fighters to defend the US Minister of Defense when he visits other countries? What you did is nothing short of state-level terrorism.

 

[TexasJohn]

Well, there are political and cultural reasons for that. Historically, Pakistanis fought for independence from India because they were Muslims. It's no wonder that religion plays such a big role in the Pakistani mentality and culture. With Iranians, it's different. Our country has been there long before Islam and we have hosted major empires before and after Islam. Islam is not that big a factor for us as it is for Pakistan. As for siding with Saudis, Pakistanis feel obligated to maintain amicable ties with Saudi Arabia because apparently the Saudis funded their nuclear program and continue to outsource Pakistanis and Indians. Even though most Pakistani immigrants are treated poorly in Arab countries, but Pakistanis still prefer to side with them mostly for economic benefits.

Your government has asked for an equal response in a conventional way in one of the letters submitted to the Iranian authorities through the Swiss embassy. Of course the main purpose of the letter was mostly to provoke Iran to make a hasty move.


I disagree with you on this completely. He was on an official visit to Iraq at the request of the Iraqi government. Do you send tanks, helicopters and jet fighters to defend the US Minister of Defense when he visits other countries? What you did is nothing short of state-level terrorism.

Yes most Iranians I have met say the same thing - that religion is not an issue there. The mullah regime from what I hear does not enjoy support of the younger crowd. By and large, Iranians I have met are pretty westernized more so than the Arabs - in outlook for sure

 

[Arian]

Yes most Iranians I have met say the same thing - that religion is not an issue there. The mullah regime from what I hear does not enjoy support of the younger crowd. By and large, Iranians I have met are pretty westernized more so than the Arabs - in outlook for sure

Our view about religion is different from Pakistanis. They link religion to their cultural identity, we don't do that. But this doesn't mean that we don't have religious people. Millions of Iranians commemorate the death of Imam Hussein every year.

The younger generation, including me, do not agree with some of the internal policies of the regime like compulsory hijab, but the support for their foreign policies remains high. Again, there are historical reasons for why Iranians support the Islamic Republic.

 

[Tigers]

How do you know he doesn't have a plan? All the military assets have been placed and ready for some time and new ones shifted recently. The hawks were placed in key positions and have been braying for war.

This American idiot told his pals at Mar-a-Lago to expect something big. He panicked when he saw Iran's reaction and fired the hawk working on Iran in the White House. This idiot's plan is to destroy America and the world by pressing the big button.

 

[SSG_Commando]

USA/Israel/Iran are not going for war as they need each other, Why?

- After revolution Iranian think tank (Mullahs and Mullahs) focused on creating Proxy militias for low intensity conflict with ability of shoot and scoot. They did not perceive any one to one direct confrontation with Israel or America
- Just as Israel requires Iran to be the "necessary evil" for the region to attack its neighbours, Iran needs America and Israel as "necessary evil" for her ambitions in the region
- The Arabs nationalism, Iran-Iraq and then the Gulf wars have deeply divided the region
- If Iranian thought of confrontation with USA and Israel then they would have prepared Army, Airforce and Navy. Instead, the Quds and IRGC were always the main focus. More importantly they would have focused to achieve Nuclear Parity to contain the threats
- Iran like Israel and India which I call the 3 I's were the biggest benefactor of 9/11 war. In fact they remained in complete synergy with USA in Afghanistan and Iraq because their ambitions and plan correlated

I you consider point 3 USA and Israel will never attack and destroy Iran. Why to waste a boogie man which helps your narrative?

 

[Pakhtoon yum]

It is interesting that protests in Karachi are larger than some Islamic countries. I interact with many foreign students here at the University, the Pakistani students tell me that Pakistanis try to be more Arab than the Arabs themselves, and Iranian students make it a point to remind me they are NOT Arab and have their own language and are proud of it! Saudi and US of course as you know are bedfellows of convenience. It's been that way for years and years, something I don't quite approve of.


I don't think there will be an open confrontation either. Yes, the US killed the second most powerful man in Iran, but he was overconfident that no one would touch him and was pretty open about where he was. So he painted a big target on his back. The US saw the opportunity and took it, also killing a high ranking Hezbollah target I believe.

Iran will have to make a response, but one that does not unleash the full fury of the US Armed forces. Asymmetrical response if you will

What Pakistani students told you that bullsh$t? Lmao what a stupid remark.

 

[TexasJohn]

What Pakistani students told you that bullsh$t? Lmao what a stupid remark.

More than one student. I am merely passing on what they said. You may consider them stupid, but they also happen to be Masters and Phd and 4.0 grade students, and extremely intelligent. On the other hand, all your answers have come across as an angry, frustrated, and unhappy young man, who has yet to contribute anything of value to the discussion itself. I hope you find happiness somewhere, and I mean that sincerely. Peace out!

USA/Israel/Iran are not going for war as they need each other, Why?

- After revolution Iranian think tank (Mullahs and Mullahs) focused on creating Proxy militias for low intensity conflict with ability of shoot and scoot. They did not perceive any one to one direct confrontation with Israel or America
- Just as Israel requires Iran to be the "necessary evil" for the region to attack its neighbours, Iran needs America and Israel as "necessary evil" for her ambitions in the region
- The Arabs nationalism, Iran-Iraq and then the Gulf wars have deeply divided the region
- If Iranian thought of confrontation with USA and Israel then they would have prepared Army, Airforce and Navy. Instead, the Quds and IRGC were always the main focus. More importantly they would have focused to achieve Nuclear Parity to contain the threats
- Iran like Israel and India which I call the 3 I's were the biggest benefactor of 9/11 war. In fact they remained in complete synergy with USA in Afghanistan and Iraq because their ambitions and plan correlated

I you consider point 3 USA and Israel will never attack and destroy Iran. Why to waste a boogie man which helps your narrative?

Good points. Thank you

 

[maverick1977]

USA/Israel/Iran are not going for war as they need each other, Why?

- After revolution Iranian think tank (Mullahs and Mullahs) focused on creating Proxy militias for low intensity conflict with ability of shoot and scoot. They did not perceive any one to one direct confrontation with Israel or America
- Just as Israel requires Iran to be the "necessary evil" for the region to attack its neighbours, Iran needs America and Israel as "necessary evil" for her ambitions in the region
- The Arabs nationalism, Iran-Iraq and then the Gulf wars have deeply divided the region
- If Iranian thought of confrontation with USA and Israel then they would have prepared Army, Airforce and Navy. Instead, the Quds and IRGC were always the main focus. More importantly they would have focused to achieve Nuclear Parity to contain the threats
- Iran like Israel and India which I call the 3 I's were the biggest benefactor of 9/11 war. In fact they remained in complete synergy with USA in Afghanistan and Iraq because their ambitions and plan correlated

I you consider point 3 USA and Israel will never attack and destroy Iran. Why to waste a boogie man which helps your narrative?

Very interesting. but the person who is tryingh to distort this balance doesnt get it and wants war really bad..

 

[Pakistani Fighter]

More than one student. I am merely passing on what they said. You may consider them stupid, but they also happen to be Masters and Phd and 4.0 grade students, and extremely intelligent. On the other hand, all your answers have come across as an angry, frustrated, and unhappy young man, who has yet to contribute anything of value to the discussion itself. I hope you find happiness somewhere, and I mean that sincerely. Peace out!


Good points. Thank you

When are u upgrading our all F 16s to V standard, giving us AIM 120Ds and AH 1Zs?

 

[TexasJohn]

When are u upgrading our all F 16s to V standard, giving us AIM 120Ds and AH 1Zs?

Off topic, but short answer - given the on again, off again relations our Govts. have, no telling. I always wondered why you guys are so hooked on what I would consider an end-of-life platform. Heck, you neighbor keeps turning us down...even if we call it an F-21 !

 

[Pakistani Fighter]

Off topic, but short answer - given the on again, off again relations our Govts. have, no telling. I always wondered why you guys are so hooked on what I would consider an end-of-life platform. Heck, you neighbor keeps turning us down...even if we call it an F-21 !

Well it proved its worth on 27 Feb when the mini AWACs was shot down. F 16 V/blk 72 can take on IAF Rafale. Isint it?

 

[TexasJohn]

Well it proved its worth on 27 Feb when the mini AWACs was shot down. F 16 V/blk 72 can take on IAF Rafale. Isint it?

Hard to tell. So many factors go into a scenario like that, I would be foolish to make a call on that. Depends on what the Rafale has for it's weapons suite and what the Viper has. And the export variant of the Viper is somewhat "less" than the ones flown by the USAF. That has always been the case. You guys took down the MIG-21, but the Flanker got away, prolly because the AIM120 was fired at Max range...fog of war..don't you love it?