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Many Indians are entering 2012 with a sense of unease. The economy is slowing, infrastructure remains terrible, poverty is ever-present, and corruption seems an intractable problem.
These are all legitimate concerns. But, please, take a step back and look at the big picture. Now take another step back and look at the really big picture.
For most of the past 2,000 years, wealth and power were concentrated in those parts of the world with the largest populations - that is, the civilisations of what is today India and China. Then, around 500 years ago, the countries of Europe began their ascendancy. The industrial revolution allowed, for the first time in human history, small states to accumulate wealth and power out of proportion to their populations.
With the 21st century well underway, it is becoming clear that the past 200 years have been an aberration. The big nations - China and India - are making a comeback, and we are now returning to the historical norm. But size itself does not automatically confer either wealth or power. A big state still has to take the right steps to maximise its natural advantage.
So, when we ask if this will be a good century for India, we are really asking what India is doing to convert its size into increased wealth and power. The answer is: so far, not much.
Look at what China has accomplished in the past three decades. It has transformed from an agriculture-driven to a manufacturing-driven economy. Its per capita GDP has grown ten-fold. It has built over a thousand universities, achieving the fastest increase in university enrolment in the history of mankind. Life expectancy at birth has increased from 66 to 73 years, and the infant mortality rate has decreased by 60%.
Chinese Checkers
China's economic strength has funded an increasingly forceful foreign policy. It is building a world-class navy, striking long-term deals for resources in Africa and South America, and - closer home - securing potential strategic footholds in India's backyard. China is busy constructing commercial ports in Pakistan, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka in what analysts have called a "string of pearls" strategy. If commercial ports one day lead to basing rights for China's navy, this string of pearls could well strangle India.
Looking out from Beijing, China's leaders see around them a host of weak states, and only one thing standing between them and complete domination of the entire Asian continent: a powerful India.
Fortunately for China, such an India is nowhere to be seen. India has spent the past three decades struggling to become even a regional power. Its inaction in its own neighbourhood came with hollow pleas ("world's largest democracy") for the world to recognise India's right to a seat at the great power table. All the while India clung to its membership in the non-aligned movement (an ineffective fraternity of weak states) and allowed itself to be drawn into a debilitating equation with Pakistan (the so-called Indo-Pak hyphenation) - two associations that further hobbled India's global ambitions.
India's nuclear policy - the 1998 test, followed by the Indo-American nuclear deal a decade later - stands out as an isolated example of far-sighted and courageous foreign policy. Yet China knows that a nuclear deterrent is no substitute for the strength in conventional arms that will be decisive in any conflict short of Armageddon.
Enter the Elephant
Game over, and China wins, right? Not so fast. India has several important advantages over China. If it uses them correctly, it can credibly challenge China's would-be supremacy in Asia.
First, India has demographic tailwinds that China can only dream of. China's disastrous one-child policy has turned that country (1.8 births per woman and 20% of the population under the age of 15) into the demographic equivalent of a Western European nation. India, by contrast, is not only large like China, but also young (31% of population under 15) and growing (2.7 births per woman).
Second, India's corporate sector is far stronger than China's. Indian businesses, led by English-speaking management of global calibre, will conquer global markets, just as American businesses did in the second half of the 20th century. Most companies in China, where domestic power derives from connections with the state and where export cost advantages depend on an under-valued currency, lack the capacity to become true multinationals.
Third, India has the most talented base of technology workers in the world. Currently they are under-utilised in the outsourcing sector. India must take them out of the back office (where they use their minds to develop intellectual property for overseas clients) to the front office (where they will develop intellectual property for Indian firms). Indian firms that move from back office to front will capture far more of the global value chain in technology than they do currently.
These are just some of the advantages that can give India's economy the sustained growth it needs to fund a more aggressive foreign policy against China. Already India has begun to replace its ageing military hardware. Only a strong economy can ensure India has the capacity to match China's ongoing defence build-up. Only a strong India can halt and roll back China's incursions into the Indian Ocean area.
Above all, India has one more thing that China does not: a relationship with the US bolstered by shared values. The two democracies have come a long way since the US slapped sanctions on India following the 1998 nuclear tests. Now they consider themselves strategic partners, and are cooperating across a wide range of matters, from trade to military training to intelligence sharing.
But the US and India need to do more. They need to develop an alliance that is as broad, deep and strong as the Anglo-American alliance was in the 20th century. Just as the US and the UK worked together to preserve freedom last century, so must the US and India this century.
As the great nations of Asia re-emerge from centuries of economic stagnation, China has gotten a big head start.If the 21st century is to be a good one for India, it must leave inaction behind and begin on the path to global power. 2012 would be a good time to start.
Why 21st century can well be India's - Page2 - The Economic Times
Congrats india the 21st centery superpower.
These are all legitimate concerns. But, please, take a step back and look at the big picture. Now take another step back and look at the really big picture.
For most of the past 2,000 years, wealth and power were concentrated in those parts of the world with the largest populations - that is, the civilisations of what is today India and China. Then, around 500 years ago, the countries of Europe began their ascendancy. The industrial revolution allowed, for the first time in human history, small states to accumulate wealth and power out of proportion to their populations.
With the 21st century well underway, it is becoming clear that the past 200 years have been an aberration. The big nations - China and India - are making a comeback, and we are now returning to the historical norm. But size itself does not automatically confer either wealth or power. A big state still has to take the right steps to maximise its natural advantage.
So, when we ask if this will be a good century for India, we are really asking what India is doing to convert its size into increased wealth and power. The answer is: so far, not much.
Look at what China has accomplished in the past three decades. It has transformed from an agriculture-driven to a manufacturing-driven economy. Its per capita GDP has grown ten-fold. It has built over a thousand universities, achieving the fastest increase in university enrolment in the history of mankind. Life expectancy at birth has increased from 66 to 73 years, and the infant mortality rate has decreased by 60%.
Chinese Checkers
China's economic strength has funded an increasingly forceful foreign policy. It is building a world-class navy, striking long-term deals for resources in Africa and South America, and - closer home - securing potential strategic footholds in India's backyard. China is busy constructing commercial ports in Pakistan, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka in what analysts have called a "string of pearls" strategy. If commercial ports one day lead to basing rights for China's navy, this string of pearls could well strangle India.
Looking out from Beijing, China's leaders see around them a host of weak states, and only one thing standing between them and complete domination of the entire Asian continent: a powerful India.
Fortunately for China, such an India is nowhere to be seen. India has spent the past three decades struggling to become even a regional power. Its inaction in its own neighbourhood came with hollow pleas ("world's largest democracy") for the world to recognise India's right to a seat at the great power table. All the while India clung to its membership in the non-aligned movement (an ineffective fraternity of weak states) and allowed itself to be drawn into a debilitating equation with Pakistan (the so-called Indo-Pak hyphenation) - two associations that further hobbled India's global ambitions.
India's nuclear policy - the 1998 test, followed by the Indo-American nuclear deal a decade later - stands out as an isolated example of far-sighted and courageous foreign policy. Yet China knows that a nuclear deterrent is no substitute for the strength in conventional arms that will be decisive in any conflict short of Armageddon.
Enter the Elephant
Game over, and China wins, right? Not so fast. India has several important advantages over China. If it uses them correctly, it can credibly challenge China's would-be supremacy in Asia.
First, India has demographic tailwinds that China can only dream of. China's disastrous one-child policy has turned that country (1.8 births per woman and 20% of the population under the age of 15) into the demographic equivalent of a Western European nation. India, by contrast, is not only large like China, but also young (31% of population under 15) and growing (2.7 births per woman).
Second, India's corporate sector is far stronger than China's. Indian businesses, led by English-speaking management of global calibre, will conquer global markets, just as American businesses did in the second half of the 20th century. Most companies in China, where domestic power derives from connections with the state and where export cost advantages depend on an under-valued currency, lack the capacity to become true multinationals.
Third, India has the most talented base of technology workers in the world. Currently they are under-utilised in the outsourcing sector. India must take them out of the back office (where they use their minds to develop intellectual property for overseas clients) to the front office (where they will develop intellectual property for Indian firms). Indian firms that move from back office to front will capture far more of the global value chain in technology than they do currently.
These are just some of the advantages that can give India's economy the sustained growth it needs to fund a more aggressive foreign policy against China. Already India has begun to replace its ageing military hardware. Only a strong economy can ensure India has the capacity to match China's ongoing defence build-up. Only a strong India can halt and roll back China's incursions into the Indian Ocean area.
Above all, India has one more thing that China does not: a relationship with the US bolstered by shared values. The two democracies have come a long way since the US slapped sanctions on India following the 1998 nuclear tests. Now they consider themselves strategic partners, and are cooperating across a wide range of matters, from trade to military training to intelligence sharing.
But the US and India need to do more. They need to develop an alliance that is as broad, deep and strong as the Anglo-American alliance was in the 20th century. Just as the US and the UK worked together to preserve freedom last century, so must the US and India this century.
As the great nations of Asia re-emerge from centuries of economic stagnation, China has gotten a big head start.If the 21st century is to be a good one for India, it must leave inaction behind and begin on the path to global power. 2012 would be a good time to start.
Why 21st century can well be India's - Page2 - The Economic Times
Congrats india the 21st centery superpower.
