Who will win Uttar Pradesh?

[The BrOkEn HeArT]

It is clear I can see that BJP will win. I can see positive effects of demonetization amongst U.P. youths. If they goes for SP or BSP this time , they will be counted in "moron voters" like Bihar voters.

 

[Maddd]

4 SP MLA's quit party....

 

[chandrak]

SP is gonna make a comeback . Drama of Son-father wrestling is hit among UP masses.

Are you from UP?

Well its up ...ok ..and it never follows the will of political pandits..just check the last time when a party won continuously?..
By the way the same UP gave 73 out of 80 to bjp in 2014..
Earlier to this UP people got only two choices SP and BSP..since locals had lost faith in bjp n congress..
But now their is again BJP in game ,congress is still out of game..
And this SP drama is not going to feed the unemployed youths of UP , they are much aware of this..
Point is if their is no coaliation like bihar bjp will win surely. But in case of a coaliation of SP, Bsp,congress and other small regional parties ,the coalition will win..(still i dont think BSP will join hands with SP and congress)..
So chances are high for bjp ....

It is clear I can see that BJP will win. I can see positive effects of demonetization amongst U.P. youths. If they goes for SP or BSP this time , they will be counted in "moron voters" like Bihar voters.

So according to u ,one who votes against of ur will is moron right?? Then there is a question for u ,all ur family members and relative did ask u whom to vote before voting??

nope, so after election is over (and they win) baap-beta drama will get over? No wonder UP is such a mess.

Muslims are clever voters .Whoever is looking like as the chief opponent of BJP ,they vote for that party. In 2007 they voted for Mayawati and in 2012 they voted for Mulayam.

As you too pointed out BSP being as dead case,Muslims would vote for SP to stop BJP to come into power.

Seems u forgot mizzaffarnagar case..SP votebank was both jaats and muslims of west..but after riots both are angry over SP..think over it again ..

Manmohan Vaidya said something about reservation, Why can't these RSS chutiyas ever shut up...

Bcz u dont understand the politics of UP..
Low castes like sc,st and some others will go with mayawati(bsp) so forget about them...
Muslims -cant say they generally go with winning side (except bjp)..
Yadavs and some others -SP
What left is high cast (bjp is trying to lure them) as its the core support of bjp ...

 

[Kathin_Singh]

Seems u forgot mizzaffarnagar case..SP votebank was both jaats and muslims of west..but after riots both are angry over SP..think over it again ..

Jaats have never ever voted for SP in the history of UP elections.Period!

 

[chandrak]

Jaats have never ever voted for SP in the history of UP elections.Period!

Well jats always been the votebank of rld in western up ...and rld parted with SP and joined BSP ,now again rld is trying to join SP..but the chances of grouping are low since considering the riots if SP will join hands with rld it will loose muslim vote bank..so already SP has to choose between muslims and jats and it will go with muslims..

 

[Sam.]

Well jats always been the votebank of rld in western up ...and rld parted with SP and joined BSP ,now again rld is trying to join SP..but the chances of grouping are low since considering the riots if SP will join hands with rld it will loose muslim vote bank..so already SP has to choose between muslims and jats and it will go with muslims..

We always voted for Ajit Singh son of Kalyan singh who has independent party. We made BJP won 2014 election in UP. This time we are not sure due to Rohtak incidence ,i see anger towards BJP (It's only RSS who keep peace between us)

 

[Soumitra]

https://twitter.com/x/status/822796446315462658

 

[somebozo]

Altaf Bhai!!

 

[Kaniska]

Most Probably SP with Akhilesh...BJP will come second...in a hung parliament..

 

[Soumitra]

Hey lets ask our resident Lucknowi Pakistani @haviZsultan

 

[Razia Sultana]

It appears to be a hung assembly in UP. Lets not hesitate to admit that UP votes on caste and religion lines. In last one decade the mainstream parties like Congress and BJP were completely marginalized in state politics but in parliamentary elections they managed to make their presence felt and in last general election Modi wave sweeped the poll in BJP's favour with over 42% vote share. Let me put my analysis based on ground reports from my politician and journalist friends.

BJP:- 2014 results rejuvenated the BJP cadre in UP. For last 2 years various forces were at work to polarize voters on communal lines that would ensure consolidation of hindu votes but situation remained in control except a few incidents in western UP. The upper caste voters who were forced to pick up either SP or BSP in past have shown their inclination towards BJP making it a strong contender this time. However, demonetization has put the BJP on back foot due to large scale resentment against the Modi government which has remained under reported in media. This has driven away the poor voters from BJP that voted Modi in 2014. This is a clear loss of about 8% SC votes to BJP and about same % other votes due to demonetization. Anti reservation statement by some RSS leader just before elections rules out any possibility of SC votes going to BJP. A 15% less vote would mean BJP getting about 27% votes down from 42% in 2014. Apart from that there is no leader in UP that can be projected as CM. Projection of Rajnath Singh or Kalraj Mishra could improve party's chances as so far only Modi and Shah's faces are appearing on posters.

SP:- If the elections were held before 6 months, SP would be struggling to defeat congress to get the 3rd position. Yadavas would vote none other than SP but the same can not be said about muslims this time as the mood of muslims in western UP has changed in favor of BSP. This is the reason why Mulayam Singh has been trying to get muslim bahubalis like Mukhtar Ansari and Ateek Ahmed from eastern UP on board. The statement by Mulayam Singh that muslims will not vote for Akhilesh reflects what SP has done with its muslim vote bank. Upper castes that voted in favour of SP in 2012 and BJP in 2014 is still divided between SP and BJP. Demonetization dissidents could have gone to SP but when they see the yadavization of administration they go back to BJP. The fact remains that muslims will do the tactical voting against BJP and that will cost SP dearly. But whatever votes it is going to lose will be compensated by the core votes of the congress. So SP remains range bound around 25% vote share.

BSP:- This is an untouchable party that no one likes to talk about. It got 20% vote share in 2014 elections and yet did not win a single seat. About 8% SC that voted for BJP in 2014 are back to BSP and at least 50% of muslim votes takes the BSP vote share way above 30%. That's the reason Mayawati has focussed her entire strategy on Dalit and Muslims.

Congress:- Riding pillion on SP congress is set to improve its numbers but what congress is missing is its traditional voters among Dalits and Muslims. Congress is keen to project itself as an upper caste party but joining SP as inferior partner means the elections will be triangular between BJP, SP and BSP with all three parties getting vote share in the range of 25% to 30% leading to a hung assembly.

Post poll scenario in a hung assembly boosts the chances of an encore of J&K with Mayawati forming government with the help of BJP or even Congress or BJP forming government with the help of BSP. BJP and BSP will never support SP and vice-versa and Congress and BJP will always remain against each other and hence the post poll equations will be different from normal election analysis.

 

[Maddd]

https://twitter.com/x/status/823056727096619009

 

[Levina]

https://twitter.com/x/status/823056727096619009

I heard some RSS senior leader has watered down BJP's efforts by commenting something on reservation?
What exactly happened?

 

[Maddd]

I heard some RSS senior leader has watered down BJP's efforts by commenting something on reservation?
What exactly happened?

Manmohan Yadav said something about reservation, Media twisted it. pretty sure its Deliberate...

 

[Levina]

Manmohan Yadav said something about reservation, Media twisted it. pretty sure its Deliberate...

Obviously deliberate.
But will BJP make it this time?

My friend in UP tells me Akhilesh Yadav gets a lot of support in his area and that there are good chances of him winning the elections just like Mamta banerjee did.