Who will win Uttar Pradesh?

[CorporateAffairs]

BJP CM candidate will be announced soon.
BJP will either be clear winner or will be the single largest party.
SP baap beta drama is cheap and UP people already got the crux of that drama.

 

[Markus]

Yeah... even I think will be a hung assembly.

 

[Kathin_Singh]

UP election is all about anti-incumbancy, there is no development in UP and people know this, this drama won't help them. Only factor which will help SP is that Akhi is from Yadav community and some Muslim MLAs will act like their pet dogs and will force their people to vote for SP.

BJP is not getting Muslim votes for sure, but I am damn sure that BJP will get votes of higher caste community this time in huge numbers, partially due to INC going for alliance with SP.

BSP is looking like a dead case, but they might surprise, because its UP and anything can happen there.

Plus, two important thing that could kill chances of SP is BSP getting muslim votes and brahmins not voting for BSP & INC due to their respective step of wooing minority caste and religion.

Muslims are clever voters .Whoever is looking like as the chief opponent of BJP ,they vote for that party. In 2007 they voted for Mayawati and in 2012 they voted for Mulayam.

As you too pointed out BSP being as dead case,Muslims would vote for SP to stop BJP to come into power.

 

[Diggy]

BJP needs to project a CM candidate. They should have groomed someone in the past couple of years, like Varun Gandhi even. Right now can't think of anyone

Varun gandhi's name appeared in a scam few months back since then he has become silent so did his mom(she went back to animal rights) , people say bjp itself wanted to clip his wings just like they did for smithi irani as he was growing too ambitious and a bit controversial. I thought rajnath should have been sent to UP , in between there were talks of parrikar going back to goa as bjp is in a tight spot in goa then why can't rajnath be sent to UP , after all its a very important state.
In state elections a CM face is very important .

 

[Roybot]

Varun gandhi's name appeared in a scam few months back since then he has become silent so did his mom(she went back to animal rights) , people say bjp itself wanted to clip his wings just like they did for smithi irani as he was growing too ambitious and a bit controversial. I thought rajnath should have been sent to UP , in between there were talks of parrikar going back to goa as bjp is in a tight spot in goa then why can't rajnath be sent to UP , after all its a very important state.
In state elections a CM face is very important .

The arms dealers connection? It turned out to be fake, and the photos shown in media were apparently morphed. That is not the point though, BJP can't keep moving its leaders from center to state. It after all claims to be the worlds largest political party, it should have enough leaders/faces to lead them in states in and in the center. They should have started grooming couple of leaders for the UP elections ong back

Someone like Varun Gandhi would have been quite a good fit, he is a "caste neutral" face so to speak, and caste as we know is very important in UP. They should have made him a junior minister or something in the central government and taught him the ropes. To go against someone like Akhilesh Yadav, BJP needs a young and dynamic face as well. Rajnath Singh is too old school.

Its too little too late now though, not looking good for the BJP, hope am wrong.

 

[Diggy]

The arms dealers connection? It turned out to be fake, and the photos shown in media were apparently morphed. That is not the point though, BJP can't keep moving its leaders from center to state. It after all claims to be the worlds largest political party, it should have enough leaders/faces to lead them in states in and in the center. They should have started grooming couple of leaders for the UP elections ong back

Someone like Varun Gandhi would have been quite a good fit, he is a "caste neutral" face so to speak, and caste as we know is very important in UP. They should have made him a junior minister or something in the central government and taught him the ropes. To go against someone like Akhilesh Yadav, BJP needs a young and dynamic face as well. Rajnath Singh is too old school.

Its too little too late now though, not looking good for the BJP, hope am wrong.

I never doubted varun gandhi to be a good fight to akhilesh , he is young , smart(way smarter than his cousin) , knows the ground realities and a good speaker. Grooming & projecting him would have settled UP for BJP in the coming years just like the way they have established themselves in MP , CHT , RAJ , GUJ etc , he is a perfect fit to take on akhilesh (who has youth support) , clearly a step into the future , but somewhere i feel his name featuring in that scam dented his chances and i can only remember him making to many controversial statements and someone who seems to be ambitious(this automatically earns you enemies in the marg darhsak mandal who are already quite angry) , i can't see any other reason to why bjp itself wanted to clip wings of such a promising leader specially at a time when amit shah had special focus on UP in the past 3 years , he spends most of his time there.

I suggested rajnath being sent back to UP just to salvage this election , if you look at the broader picture BJP needs a local govt in UP for 2019 Lok Sabha if it wants to repeat a victory , its not going to be like 2014 where overwhelming majority in UP is going to vote for Modi like they did earlier , a local govt helps , if you look at the UP puzzle for bjp every things seems fine the only thing missing is a decent CM face (and rajnath is a OK for me) , why not get rajnath , salvage UP , once it settles down , groom someone to take his place and get him back , that will buy you some time. There is a lot at stake in UP. Especially for a party like BJP which depends upon the hindi belt for its political fortunes. Look at bihar , BJP had a great chance but no face to take on nitish , you need a face for your campaign.

 

[Kathin_Singh]

I am getting that sinking feeling among UP BJP workers and voters. Euphoria and momentum are totally missing in BJP camp.

I think this lull is indicator of upcoming andhi as BJP Young leaders calling it 'Akhilesh Andhi'

 

[Maddd]

BJP and BSP will make a coalition govt. in UP...wait and watch

 

[Kathin_Singh]

BJP and BSP will make a coalition govt. in UP...wait and watch

This is the problem of BJP ,they do not have morale for UP elections. They are passing defeatists statements. Morale is even lower in compare to Bihar.

 

[Maddd]

This is the problem of BJP ,they do not have morale for UP elections. They are passing defeatists statements. Morale is even lower in compare to Bihar.

Nop, its pretty good in UP, BJP should get around 200 seats approximately. Maya will take away some of the Muslim votes, Yogi Adityanath has a lot of support among Dalits and lower caste..

https://twitter.com/x/status/822394310406483968

 

[Kathin_Singh]

Nop, its pretty good in UP, BJP should get around 200 seats approximately. Maya will take away some of the Muslim votes, Yogi Adityanath has a lot of support among Dalits and lower caste..

Muslims going to vote for lost cause so that BJP win ..NOPE. Not gonna happen.

 

[Maddd]

Muslims going to vote for lost cause so that BJP win ..NOPE. Not gonna happen.

Local leaders are far more important, Muslims will vote for the local leader which is the strongest...

 

[Kathin_Singh]

Nop, its pretty good in UP, BJP should get around 200 seats approximately. Maya will take away some of the Muslim votes, Yogi Adityanath has a lot of support among Dalits and lower caste..

https://twitter.com/x/status/822394310406483968

RLD and JDU are minnows in UP .

 

[Maddd]

RLD and JDU are minnows in UP .

Cong still have not decided in seat sharing....

 

[Kathin_Singh]

Local leaders are far more important, Muslims will vote for the local leader which is the strongest...

Muslims have no affection for any local leaders.

Muslims deserted Mulayam in 2007 and joined Mayawati and later in 2012 they again deserted Mayawati .

They are just Anti-BJP. Who ever is going to defeat BJP ,they vote for that party.

Cong still have not decided in seat sharing....

~300 for SP and ~100 for congress.

Exact number will be decided as candidate list is released.