Hello brothers,
I for one am pretty happy that the ANA is getting dismantled in front of the onslaught by the Taliban to the extent these guys are surrending en masse. However, we know that the Taliban are a persistent fighting force that keeps going even in the face of horrendous casualties. The Taliban has become a battle hardened, unrelenting force.
However, looking at how quickly and efficiently they are taking back Afghanistan, one has to wonder as to who the genious is behind such meticulous planning and execution where the Taliban try to win battles with a well calibrated mix of diplomacy and the use of force. To me, such balance is hard with such speed and across such a large landscape.
This is why I wanted to open this thread to explore how the Taliban has become what we see today and assess the future implications of such a new force in power. I put forward, simplistically, the following reason behind such a success, in my opinion that is:
1) The Taliban are just foot soldiers with a decentralised command and control but being guided by a strategic force be it the more senior Taliban commanders in Pakistan or the Pakistani estate itself. The Taliban may have engaged the US and ANA in a war of attrition but behind the scenes Pakistan looked for a diplomatic solution to get the US to disengage...a more of a waiting game. However, behind the scenes, Pakistani Generals and Taliban senior commanders build a comprehensive plan with accurate leavers to start their offensive the moment the US disengaged via diplomatic solution. This explains the strategy of how Pakistan, in front of the world, showed that it was not able to exert much leverage with the exception of bringing them to the table to talk to the US and ensuring the Taliban agreed to political settlement to give the US an exit strategy. But, behind the scenes, Pakistan must have promised the Taliban to be unleashed on the corrupt Afghan government which is what we see playing out and most possibly being guided by ISI and other military services to support the Taliban. I am leaning towards this possibility.
2) Taliban no longer want to deal with Pakistan or at least accept them as allies but want to fight their own battles. Twenty years of unrelenting fighting must have taught the Taliban the art of war and diplomacy, understanding full well the limits of their capabilities. On the flip side, the Afghan government maintained a situation on the ground and in the political space where it would be humiliating for the US to disengage. The Afghan government may have deliberately created such an atmosphere with no intent of ever reaching a political solution while have the legitimacy to voice its severe vulnerability at the international stage which in turn puts pressure on the US to deliver on the war it initiated. In twenty years, all the warlords of 1990s got old and no longer relied on for the security of the puppet regime. These were exceptionally good times for the Afghan government that now only produced weak and unmotivated while looting the US by giving the money to corrupt individuals. I guess, they never saw this day coming, and now that it is here....they are facing a battle hardened Taliban who is no longer battling the former Northern Alliance but a bunch of corrupt and demoralised enemy which is just making it easier to win on the ground. Its the natural order of things where the strong defeat the weak. No external party can be responsible for such an outcome, the lack of fighting spirit on the ANA part is even making it difficult for the US and others to blame Pakistan.
So, which one do you think is the approach here, who is the mastermind behind the Taliban blitzkreig? Do you have a different view? Where does Pakistan stand in the eventual Taliban victory from the above two possibilities? How easy will it be for the west to blame Pakistan after such an abysmal performance by the ANA?
I for one am pretty happy that the ANA is getting dismantled in front of the onslaught by the Taliban to the extent these guys are surrending en masse. However, we know that the Taliban are a persistent fighting force that keeps going even in the face of horrendous casualties. The Taliban has become a battle hardened, unrelenting force.
However, looking at how quickly and efficiently they are taking back Afghanistan, one has to wonder as to who the genious is behind such meticulous planning and execution where the Taliban try to win battles with a well calibrated mix of diplomacy and the use of force. To me, such balance is hard with such speed and across such a large landscape.
This is why I wanted to open this thread to explore how the Taliban has become what we see today and assess the future implications of such a new force in power. I put forward, simplistically, the following reason behind such a success, in my opinion that is:
1) The Taliban are just foot soldiers with a decentralised command and control but being guided by a strategic force be it the more senior Taliban commanders in Pakistan or the Pakistani estate itself. The Taliban may have engaged the US and ANA in a war of attrition but behind the scenes Pakistan looked for a diplomatic solution to get the US to disengage...a more of a waiting game. However, behind the scenes, Pakistani Generals and Taliban senior commanders build a comprehensive plan with accurate leavers to start their offensive the moment the US disengaged via diplomatic solution. This explains the strategy of how Pakistan, in front of the world, showed that it was not able to exert much leverage with the exception of bringing them to the table to talk to the US and ensuring the Taliban agreed to political settlement to give the US an exit strategy. But, behind the scenes, Pakistan must have promised the Taliban to be unleashed on the corrupt Afghan government which is what we see playing out and most possibly being guided by ISI and other military services to support the Taliban. I am leaning towards this possibility.
2) Taliban no longer want to deal with Pakistan or at least accept them as allies but want to fight their own battles. Twenty years of unrelenting fighting must have taught the Taliban the art of war and diplomacy, understanding full well the limits of their capabilities. On the flip side, the Afghan government maintained a situation on the ground and in the political space where it would be humiliating for the US to disengage. The Afghan government may have deliberately created such an atmosphere with no intent of ever reaching a political solution while have the legitimacy to voice its severe vulnerability at the international stage which in turn puts pressure on the US to deliver on the war it initiated. In twenty years, all the warlords of 1990s got old and no longer relied on for the security of the puppet regime. These were exceptionally good times for the Afghan government that now only produced weak and unmotivated while looting the US by giving the money to corrupt individuals. I guess, they never saw this day coming, and now that it is here....they are facing a battle hardened Taliban who is no longer battling the former Northern Alliance but a bunch of corrupt and demoralised enemy which is just making it easier to win on the ground. Its the natural order of things where the strong defeat the weak. No external party can be responsible for such an outcome, the lack of fighting spirit on the ANA part is even making it difficult for the US and others to blame Pakistan.
So, which one do you think is the approach here, who is the mastermind behind the Taliban blitzkreig? Do you have a different view? Where does Pakistan stand in the eventual Taliban victory from the above two possibilities? How easy will it be for the west to blame Pakistan after such an abysmal performance by the ANA?
