Who Has the World's No. 1 Economy? Not the U.S. By most measures - 2017 article

[MultaniGuy]

Assalamu Alaikum

I doubt it.

Walaikum Salaam.

Only time will tell...

 

[Cybernetics]

I think @Iqbal Ali is trying to compare international economic influence and power. In this case I think the US is ahead of China.

If we go by PPP GDP China is the largest economy (~25% larger than US) but this is not a really useful measure for gauging the total economy from the view of China or for the purpose of comparing international influence. However PPP is used to gauge economic growth as it offers a more realistic picture of the rate of domestic development compared to nominal.

An adjustment in nominal GDP due to currency rates doesn't reflect the actual growth in the underlying economy. At certain points China was hitting over 30% annual nominal GDP growth, had 20% nominal growth a decade ago and in 2017 had over 10% growth but economic growth is not officially measured such a way because it doesn't reflect the underlying economic growth. The underlying economy had been growing at a steady pace as measured by real/PPP GDP growth at 6-8% in recent years during the "new normal" phase. Domestic output didn't grow at nominal rates but the value of that output on the international market did change. That international value implies international influence, backed by some competitive fundamental factors.

When I say international influence I mean international influence within a USD system since it is the current global architecture and is how economies are measured to one standard. A new system would have China's international influence readjusted. The readjusted influence for China would rely on various factors like negotiations, relationships, etc. but most importantly the economic structure of China and that structure's relation with other economic structures in that system.

Nowadays, China is more focused on building a structurally strong economic base rather than obtaining high nominal rates and real GDP growth act as a basic indicator for overall growth. A readjustment within the international order is likely to occur in the future, whether it is in favor of China or not will depend largely on its underlying economic structure. Thus it is unsound to base economic assumptions upon just current conditions.

We can see the attempts at building a stronger economic base through "Made in China 2025" initiative. US in this case is the incumbent player and China is the new entrant, thus US is ahead of China in this area. After 2025 there will be another upgrade program. By about the mid 2030s China should be complete "basic industrialization".

We can look at the economic structure of each country to get an understanding of their economic relation with other nations. Economic size is not indicative of this. Another measure we can look at is a more holistic national power. Military, politics and economy are interconnected, each fortifies the strength of the other two. What China needs to work on is building a strong and modern (not necessarily large) forward projected military, strong and innovative and complete economic base including military industries, and political will to support these forces domestically and internationally. Politically speaking China's policy would still be largely non-interventionist due to the many pre-occupations it has.

 

[zectech]

The funny thing is that China doesn't act like a superpower.

USA bullies everyone including Chinese allies yet China does nothing. heck even Russia throws some punches even though their economy is shyte.

This policy of tolerance is going to end where? i don't know if you guys have noticed but Iran is your last stronghold against USA imperialism, what are you doing?

Better to develop long lasting ties as the reaction. Look to your reliable friends and partners. The world does not need another war or conflict, but to get Europe and Asia against the criminal warmongers in Washington, Trump and pals have no idea that the rest of the world is sovereign, not some playground for unwanted armies.

China's rise could save the world and bring peace.

 

[prashantazazel]

Since China loves exporting, it depends the goodwill of other nations. So it can't go around getting into wars and eroding that goodwill.
Further, China is also dependent on some crucial imports to keep growing - mainly machinery, oil and natural resources.
It may have surpassed the US overall, but not in raw military power. That's not even required.
By the time China becomes as powerful as the US, the world would have become distinctly multipolar.
PPP per capita would be the actual deciding point.

 

[Cookie Monster]

@BHarwana @xyxmt @Cookie Monster Your views?

In short US is still number one and will remain so for a while...this is just feel good view...nothing else.

my advice to all Pakistanis who start talking about things like US economy going down, India's debt, etc...

The more important thing to consider is improving Pak rn. We need to look inwards now more than ever.

The world's calculus should be taken into account not as a feel good thing but to make calculated decisions to move forward. Like for example how Great Britain(and other European powers) had been weakened after WWII and couldn't hold on to their colonies. Therefore many leaders(including those of the Indian subcontinent) went in full swing to gain independence. Or like how Pak aligned closely with US to help thwart Soviet Union for its own security.

...just like that the world has changed again...the circumstances have changed...in this post cold war era Pak must readjust.

US economy/power may be declining but it's still number one and will remain so for a while. However with US engaged in war in Afghanistan and having spent billions already in Iraq/Afghan war...plus the shifting focus(and additional billions spent) towards China and propping India up...while also countering Iran/Russia...
...this means that US has spread itself thin, which frees Pak up to chart its own course. The pressure tactics are/would be less effective. Now Pak can do things that are beneficial for itself rather than giving in under US pressure.

With that in mind...I would say Pak should go ahead and build Iran/Pak gas pipeline(if the price of gas can be kept competitive). Iran needs customers to sell its gas/petroleum now more than ever. That proposed Pak/Russia agreement about offshore pipeline is also a nice development. This is the golden chance for Pakistan where it can sort of play the middle game instead of being strictly in one camp...bide time and establish itself as the hub between Middle East/Africa/China...
...with CPEC's infrastructure/power plants...plus Pak's dam building efforts...and these pipeline projects, etc. All this development and connectivity can position Pak as a trade and manufacturing hub. Pak must position itself like this so it becomes indispensable for the major world economies.

P.S. I know it's more an off topic(but still related) rant...but these are my views on such articles.

 

[haman10]

That's because we are not a superpower.

"Tao guang yang hui" still applies, i.e. cover brightness and nourish obscurity.

Right now the USA is being laughed at by the entire world, especially by their "allies" in the Western world like the European Union and Canada. It would be prudent to continue to let that happen, instead of giving them the gift of an external enemy to focus on.

China remembers the suffering of our Century of Humiliation, and the loss of tens of millions of lives due to our own internal weaknesses. Preventing that from happening again is the priority.

For example, see the difference between China and Palestine when it comes to fighting against injustices done to them. Palestine chooses rocks and rockets, China chooses economy and science. Which one do you think provides better results?

China could choose to throw around military power, the technology and the finances are certainly there. But patience pays greater dividends. We are playing for the long game, Donald Trump is just another minor footnote in that story. So too is the USA itself.

Well that's actually a smart reply, but makes me wonder: What if they succeed in destroying all your allies and overcoming all your interests in the world?

lol

Kir