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Which Nation Will Be The 4th To Join the Elite Club of Spacefaring Nations?

Which Nation Will Be The 4th To Join the Elite Club of Spacefaring Nations?


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No way could Elon pull a Donald Pleasance and shave his head. I do agree that Starship is the most economical design for a manned, interplanetary spacecraft in the long run. Seems the modular approach of assembly in orbit is a mistake.

I disagree. While the Starship is relatively large; interplanetary missions would be more palatable if they ensured adequate provisions. You hook 5 Starships together and send it to Mars people would be more at ease knowing they'd have plenty of fuel and food.

Plus you must know by now what the SpaceX goal really is.
 
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Well in the last 20 years of your manned program you've had a whopping 6 manned missions in your upgraded Soyuz. Lifting a total of 14 passengers into space. No launches since 2016.

If SpaceX Crew Dragon takes off in November that will make 2 manned missions with 6 passengers in less than a year. They'll likely pass you in 2022.
Indeed, China shall be embarrassed since it has so little manned mission. I guess China shall be embarrassed when even Vietnam has make it to space much earlier than China. How many world class space rocket has Vietnam launched to embarrass China space program? Care to tell me? :enjoy:
 
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Indeed, China shall be embarrassed since it has so little manned mission.

Well true, nobody ever expected you guys to really accomplish anything great...so you are correct in not being embarrassed for aiming low.

Vietnam launched to embarrass China space program? Care to tell me? :enjoy:

Hey Chinese and Vietnamese (and even Indian) are all the same..so go ask your soul brothers yourself during your next shared cowpie. :enjoy:
 
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Which Nation Will Be The 4th To Join the Elite Club of Spacefaring Nations?

If successful, it will join the U.S.S.R., the U.S. and China in the elite club of countries to achieve homegrown human spaceflight.

Please support your claim with substantiated evidence, no low IQ self-satisfactory wishful thinking.

A spacefaring nation is a nation which sends stuff into space including people. It is deliberately phrased to ignore ESA.
The question is not who will become fourth, the question is who will become 24th (or similar, I did not bother to count),

 
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Well true, nobody ever expected you guys to really accomplish anything great...so you are correct in not being embarrassed for aiming low.
How do u defined low or great? Having 100 manned mission and try send as many astronaut as possible while doing only space tour or repeat the same thing just to have the bragging rights of more manned mission?

China are now doing a space station alone. While ISS still needs many countries contribution in order to succeed. Not to mention without Russian spacecraft for past 10 years, going and return to ISS is impossible. Elon musk shall try do a soft landing or rover on moon or mars first somebody think he can really embarrassed China , Russia or US.
 
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Only a matter of time before the United Federation of planets is formed.
 
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How do u defined low or great? Having 100 manned mission and try send as many astronaut as possible while doing only space tour or repeat the same thing just to have the bragging rights of more manned mission?

So you think that is what your future space station plans are all about? Spinning people around the planet to basically do nothing? Or do you think China alone has figured out some benefit?

China are now doing a space station alone. While ISS still needs many countries contribution in order to succeed.

LOL! Typical closed mind. We and the Russians already had our own Space stations back in the 1970's. The ISS is the 9th space station with 4 space agencies jointly involved so there's no overlap in research. It's been permanently manned for 20 years.
 
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So you think that is what your future space station plans are all about? Spinning people around the planet to basically do nothing? Or do you think China alone has figured out some benefit?



LOL! Typical closed mind. We and the Russians already had our own Space stations. back in the 1970's. The ISS is the 9th space station with 4 space agencies jointly involved so there's no overlap in research. It's been permanently manned for 20 years.

It's ok bro. They will beat USA by doing in 2030 what the US did in 1967....that's kind of how their brain works.
 
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It's ok bro. They will beat USA by doing in 2030 what the US did in 1967....that's kind of how their brain works.
Lol.. Did US land something in the dark side of the moon? No...

And since u claim US already achieved those feat. Then what is India doing in space doing those what US accomplished? Don't be selective with your explanation. :enjoy:
So you think that is what your future space station plans are all about? Spinning people around the planet to basically do nothing? Or do you think China alone has figured out some benefit?



LOL! Typical closed mind. We and the Russians already had our own Space stations back in the 1970's. The ISS is the 9th space station with 4 space agencies jointly involved so there's no overlap in research. It's been permanently manned for 20 years.
Lol.. There are still many scientific research of medical , physics needed to be carry out in space.

As for your space station in the 70s are so small compare to ISS or even China upcoming space station. It's not even worth any research or scientific value. So what is your point of mention it? Another orange to apple comparison.
So you think that is what your future space station plans are all about? Spinning people around the planet to basically do nothing? Or do you think China alone has figured out some benefit?



LOL! Typical closed mind. We and the Russians already had our own Space stations back in the 1970's. The ISS is the 9th space station with 4 space agencies jointly involved so there's no overlap in research. It's been permanently manned for 20 years.
Lol.. There are still many scientific research of medical , physics needed to be carry out in space.

As for your space station in the 70s are so small compare to ISS or even China upcoming space station. It's not even worth any research or scientific value. So what is your point of mention it? Another orange to apple comparison.
 
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North Korea will be 4th by a long shot
Totally agree, team North-Korea-Iran will certainly be the 4th to return a man alive from space, because the above armies of foolish troll simply don't realize what is at stake.

Here the reason. Because unlike India, it is a pressing question of existential survival.

No surprise that Iran took the decision to command 5 manned spacecrafts only after the brutal killing by the Trump's administration of martyred Lieutenant General Ghasem Soleimani.

The second most powerful figure in the Iranian hierarchy.

This manned space program is the most costly one, deemed unnecessary extravaganza by India, but on the contrary it is intended to achieve a credible nuclear deterrence for Iran. Therefore the same will by North Korea to make the the heaviest sacrifice.

Peeking under the shroud of North Korea’s Monster Missile

November 5, 2020

Some unresolved questions surround the huge new mobile missiles that North Korea showed off in last month’s parade. Most of all: what will they carry, and when will the North Koreans reveal it through flight-testing?

Let’s start with what we can observe. The external characteristics of the weapon are consistent with a two-stage, liquid-propelled ICBM. In many ways, it’s similar to the Hwasong-15, which North Korea tested in 2017, but on a larger scale. My CNS colleagues estimate that the new missile is about 25 m long, compared to the roughly 20 m-long HS-15. It has a first stage of about 2.4 m [3 m] in diameter, compared to the approximately 2.1 m [2.4 m] diameter of the HS-15.

Like the HS-15, the Monster Missile features a “skirt” at the base of its first stage, suggesting a cluster of gimbaled engines, and an evocatively named “shroud” over its payload section at the front. That’s a hollow cover that pops off after the missile leaves the atmosphere, allowing whatever the missile carries to deploy.

As Mike Elleman and Vann van Diepen were quick to observe, the HS-15 already appears capable of sending a heavy payload to anyplace on the mainland of these United States. It follows that the new missile wasn’t built for greater range, but to carry a bigger, heavier payload. Which means… what?

Even before the parade, veteran intelligence analysts Markus Garlauskas and Bruce Perry noted that the logical next step for the North Korean ICBM program would be to deploy multi-warhead missiles in order to thwart U.S. missile defenses. Ensuring that North Korea’s nuclear weapons can penetrate the American “shield” may be what Kim Jong Un meant when he said in 2017 that “our final goal is to establish the equilibrium of real force [or “effective balance of power”] with the U.S. and make the U.S. rulers dare not talk about [a] military option for the DPRK.”

The U.S. pioneered the multiple reentry vehicle (MRV) concept in the early 1960s, followed by the multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV). The Soviet Union caught up with their own versions within a decade or so. You could think of MRV as nuclear grapeshot, spraying a handful of bombs across one area. MIRV is more precise and more adaptable; it involves a small rocket engine called a post-boost vehicle, or “bus,” that pushes each warhead it carries onto a selected course, sending them to different targets if desired.

Some combination of multiple warheads and missile-defense countermeasures–chaff, decoys, and so forth–has become the favorite in this morbid little guessing game. If they’re ambitious, perhaps the North Koreans might be trying to replicate Britain’s Chevaline payload, which was designed to let its Polaris missiles thwart nuclear-tipped interceptors placed around Moscow. Chevaline was a two-warhead system with a post-boost vehicle that dispensed countermeasures into various patterns in space. It’s also rather well-documented today, as these things go.

There’s another possibility that I’ve yet to see explored at length, though. Let’s call it a dark horse. It’s another approach to beating missile defense, and one that requires a heavy payload, but no more than a single warhead per missile. That’s the fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS).

FOBS was a Soviet innovation, brought to fruition in the mid-1960s, before the USSR developed its own multiple-warhead missiles. It involved a modified ICBM that launched its payload into low earth orbit. When the payload approached its target, an onboard retro-rocket would fire, deorbiting the warhead.

The advantage of FOBS was its ability to circumvent NORAD’s lines of early-warning radars in Canada. The FOBS weapon could be launched in any direction, allowing the USSR to launch an attack over the South Pole if desired.

Today’s early-warning radars don’t just provide warning; they also supply crucial data to the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD). These radars are located in Alaska, Greenland, the UK, California, and Massachusetts, pointing north, west, and east, whereas the interceptors themselves are mostly in Alaska, waiting for an attack from the north. Thus, the same old FOBS concept remains applicable. It’s even enjoying new life in Russia, whose president has said that the Sarmat multi-warhead missile can attack over either the North or the South Pole.

With the ability to attack in FOBS mode, North Korea could compel the United States to an unhappy choice: either build what amounts to a substantially new, south-facing defensive architecture, or accept that it cannot physically prevent nuclear attack from Pyongyang, even under the sunniest of assumptions about GMD’s performance.

Even if North Korea is building a FOBS today, its leaders probably anticipate a transition to MIRV in time, following the Soviet precedent. But FOBS could have certain advantages for now. First, the technology simply might be more rapidly attainable. Second, sticking with just one warhead per missile demands less fissile material. Third, it also avoids creating pressure to return to nuclear testing to demonstrate the smaller, lighter warheads most suited to MRV or MIRV. Fourth, being able to deorbit a payload essentially anywhere means that North Korea could finally conduct a fully realistic and instrumented test of an intercontinental-class reentry vehicle on its own territory, or close to its own shores; they’d just have to fly one all the way around the world.

There’s an uncomfortably large chance that we’ll find out soon what the Monster Missile hides under that shroud. A transition to a Biden administration on January 20, 2021 gives Kim Jong Un an incentive to try to demonstrate the existence of an “effective balance of power” beforehand, since it might strengthen his hand without directly challenging the newly inaugurated president. Kim has set the 8th Workers’ Party Congress for January as well; the success of a “new strategic weapon”–either real success or merely alleged–could set the stage for changes in governing structures and the direction of policy.

Whatever does happen, I can’t see any benefits from sitting back and waiting for North Korea to demonstrate the ability to overcome GMD by whatever means. That will mean bargaining for the reaffirmation of Kim Jong Un’s April 2018 pledge not to test long-range missiles or nuclear devices, which he declared a dead letter in January of this year. How that will work will be up to the new team in Washington, but the sooner they decide on their approach, the better.


In a nutshell, by deorbiting a spacecraft of the size of a nuclear warhead, that is a mass of 1.5 tonnes, and make sure its survives the atmospheric reentry, North Korea would demonstrate its capability to field fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS), the only strategy that can currently beat the U.S.' NORAD’s lines of early-warning radars in Canada.

Therefore achieving a credible nuclear deterrence.

This means the quickest the better, an orbital spaceflight by 2024, but a suborbital mission by 2022!

To sum up:

• The launch of the Kwangmyongsong-1 satellite was a mean to test the validity of the Moksong-1 ICBM. Technologies validated: 32-tf thrust Hwasong-7 rocket engine, high altitude rocket nozzle, rocket staging, hot and cold stage separations, orbital insertion, under 50 kg orbital payload, etc..
• The launch of the Kwangmyongsong-2 to Kwangmyongsong-4 satellites were a mean to test the Moksong-2 ICBM. Technologies validated: gimballed steering vernier engines, cluster of 37-tf thrust Hwasong-7 rocket engines, under 500 kg orbital payload, etc
• The launch of the Kwangmyongsong-5 satellite will be a mean to test the Moksong-3 ICBM (aka Hwasong-16). Technologies to be validated: multiple fully gimballed 80-tf Paektusan-1D rocket engines, under 2'000 kg orbital payload, etc
• The future launch of the the E1 manned spacecraft will test the reentry vehicle's supersonic atmospheric survival
• And the future orbital insertion followed by deorbiting of the E1 manned spacecraft will test the final missing technology needed for completing a FOBS system


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1. NORAD vs the DPRK FOBS.

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Chinese DF-6 (东风六号导弹) Fractional Orbital Bombing System

The cancelled Chinese DF-6 FOBS ICBM (东风六号导弹) developed starting from November 1966, was made of 3 stages, all burning liquid propellants. The first stage could produce a thrust of 400 tonnes at liftoff, carrying a 3'200 kg orbiting warhead.

The maximum range was 31'000 km, the length 45 m, the total mass 270 tonnes.

The DF-6 was an uprated DF-5.

The DF-6 missile was to carry the first Chinese manned spacecraft Shuguang-1, and the first GEO satellite.

Prototype of the spaceraft and spacesuit were developed, astronaut selection process also started.

First launch of the spacecraft was expected by 1975.


The program was cancelled on 28 March 1974, due to economic difficulties.




Soviet R-36 (8K69, OR-36, R-36orb) Fractional Orbital Bombing System

The R-36-O was the only orbiting military nuclear weapon ever deployed, although in order to remain legal under international treaties it was a 'fractional orbital' weapon, 18 missiles were operational from 1969 to 1983.



The 8F021 orbiting warhead had the Russian acronym OGCh. It consisted of an 8F673 orbital module, and fixed on top of it the re-entry vehicle.

The 8F673 orbital module was an equipment unit which oriented the spacecraft in orbit and autonomously determined when to make the braking maneuver to bring the re-entry vehicle down from orbit.

The 8F673 orbital module included an inertial navigation system and a radar altimeter which measured the altitude of the orbit and thereby determined when to make the braking maneuver. A solid fuel cartridge then spun up the turbine assembly of the liquid propellant (N2O4/UDMH) braking engine. Orientation was by 4 + 4 thrusters using turbine exhaust gases.

LEO Payload: 1'700 kg to a 150 km orbit. Standard warhead: 1'700 kg. Maximum range: 40'000 km. Number Standard Warheads: 1. Standard RV: 8F021. Warhead yield: 5'000 KT. CEP: 1.10 km. Boost Propulsion: Storable liquid rocket, N2O4/UDMH. Cruise Thrust: 940.400 kN. Cruise Thrust: 95'900 kgf. Cruise engine: RD-252. Initial Operational Capability: 1969.

Stage Data - R-36-O

• Stage 1. 1 x R-36-0-1. Gross Mass: 125'000 kg. Empty Mass: 8'500 kg. Thrust (vac): 2'640.000 kN. Isp: 301 sec. Burn time: 120 sec. Isp(sl): 269 sec. Diameter: 3.00 m. Span: 3.00 m. Length: 18.90 m. Propellants: N2O4/UDMH. No Engines: 1. Engine: RD-251.
• Stage 2. 1 x R-36-0-2. Gross Mass: 48'000 kg. Empty Mass: 5'000 kg. Thrust (vac): 955.991 kN. Isp: 317 sec. Burn time: 160 sec. Diameter: 3.00 m. Span: 3.00 m. Length: 9.40 m. Propellants: N2O4/UDMH. No Engines: 1. Engine: RD-252.



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1. 8К69 (SS-9 Mod 3) was the first orbiting military nuclear weapon deployed by the U.S.S.R.

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2. The 1'700 kg 8F021 orbiting warhead had the Russian acronym OGCh。

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3. The 1'700 kg 8F021 orbiting warhead had the Russian acronym OGCh。

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4. Soviet 8F673 orbital module。

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5. Iranian 1'800 kg E1 spacecraft: new prototype disclosed in 2016 on the left, first 2015 exhibition model on the right。

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6. North Korean Unha-9 SLV carrying the 1'800 kg one-seater E1 spacecraft (Mallima: “千里马号”(천리마)), similar to the Project 714 Shuguang-1 spacecraft。

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It is not an exageration to say that indeed team Korea-Iran has a good teacher when trying to develop FOBS through a manned space program!


Soviet R-36 (8K69, OR-36, R-36orb) Fractional Orbital Bombing System

The R-36-O was the only orbiting military nuclear weapon ever deployed, although in order to remain legal under international treaties it was a 'fractional orbital' weapon, 18 missiles were operational from 1969 to 1983.



The 8F021 orbiting warhead had the Russian acronym OGCh. It consisted of an 8F673 orbital module, and fixed on top of it the re-entry vehicle.

The 8F673 orbital module was an equipment unit which oriented the spacecraft in orbit and autonomously determined when to make the braking maneuver to bring the re-entry vehicle down from orbit.

The 8F673 orbital module included an inertial navigation system and a radar altimeter which measured the altitude of the orbit and thereby determined when to make the braking maneuver. A solid fuel cartridge then spun up the turbine assembly of the liquid propellant (N2O4/UDMH) braking engine. Orientation was by 4 + 4 thrusters using turbine exhaust gases.

LEO Payload: 1'700 kg to a 150 km orbit. Standard warhead: 1'700 kg. Maximum range: 40'000 km. Number Standard Warheads: 1. Standard RV: 8F021. Warhead yield: 5'000 KT. CEP: 1.10 km. Boost Propulsion: Storable liquid rocket, N2O4/UDMH. Cruise Thrust: 940.400 kN. Cruise Thrust: 95'900 kgf. Cruise engine: RD-252. Initial Operational Capability: 1969.

Stage Data - R-36-O

• Stage 1. 1 x R-36-0-1. Gross Mass: 125'000 kg. Empty Mass: 8'500 kg. Thrust (vac): 2'640.000 kN. Isp: 301 sec. Burn time: 120 sec. Isp(sl): 269 sec. Diameter: 3.00 m. Span: 3.00 m. Length: 18.90 m. Propellants: N2O4/UDMH. No Engines: 1. Engine: RD-251.
• Stage 2. 1 x R-36-0-2. Gross Mass: 48'000 kg. Empty Mass: 5'000 kg. Thrust (vac): 955.991 kN. Isp: 317 sec. Burn time: 160 sec. Diameter: 3.00 m. Span: 3.00 m. Length: 9.40 m. Propellants: N2O4/UDMH. No Engines: 1. Engine: RD-252.



fig1.jpg

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1. 8К69 (SS-9 Mod 3) was the first orbiting military nuclear weapon deployed by the U.S.S.R.

fig4.jpg

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2. The 1'700 kg 8F021 orbiting warhead had the Russian acronym OGCh。

r36_warhead_B_2.jpg

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3. The 1'700 kg 8F021 orbiting warhead had the Russian acronym OGCh。

fig7b.jpg

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4. Soviet 8F673 orbital module。


Chinese DF-6 (东风六号导弹) Fractional Orbital Bombing System

The cancelled Chinese DF-6 FOBS ICBM (东风六号导弹) developed starting from November 1966, was made of 3 stages, all burning liquid propellants. The first stage could produce a thrust of 400 tonnes at liftoff, carrying a 3'200 kg orbiting warhead.

The maximum range was 31'000 km, the length 45 m, the total mass 270 tonnes.

The DF-6 was an uprated DF-5.

The DF-6 missile was to carry the first Chinese manned spacecraft Shuguang-1, and the first GEO satellite.

Prototype of the spaceraft and spacesuit were developed, astronaut selection process also started.

First launch of the spacecraft was expected by 1975.


The program was cancelled on 28 March 1974, due to economic difficulties.


Disclosing China's Dongfeng 6 missile: with range three times that of the Dongfeng 41, project ultimately cancelled

May 31, 2018 10:16 Sina Military

In China's ballistic missile family, intercontinental missiles have always been the most mysterious and attracting the most attention.

Among the models that have been disclosed so far, the heaviest is the Dongfeng-5B liquid intercontinental strategic nuclear missile.

The Dongfeng-5 ballistic missile was developed by China in the 1970s, but what is less known is that China was preparing to develop a missile named Dongfeng-6.

Dongfeng-6 was a three-stage liquid missile with a staggering maximum range of 31'000 kilometers, a total length of 45 meters, and a maximum take-off weight of 270 tons.

The multi-warheads FOBS ICBM was underground silo-launched.

In that era, this kind of missile with a range of tens of thousands of kilometers had a proud name: Orbiting Missile (环球导弹).

As early as the 1960s, the Soviet Union had been equipped with an Orbiting Missile, which was the R-36O, an improved R-36 missile (NATO codename SS-9).

The missile had a launch weight of 181 tons, a diameter of 3.05 meters, and used liquid fuel.

Compared with other types of R-36 missiles, the missile mainly had an added third-stage, which could send a warhead into the earth's orbit, heading toward the southern hemisphere after passing the south pole, and attack from the south where the United States did not have a missile warning system at the time.

The R-36O has a maximum range of 40'000 kilometers. It began to be deployed in 1968. Since then, it has been tested twice a year to show the United States that the Soviet Union had the capability to use this missile and also verify its reliability.

Perhaps it is precisely because of the Soviet Union's Orbiting Missile that China decided to develop such class of intercontinental ballistic missile in the last century. Stimulated by the Soviet R-36O, China also devised its own Orbiting Missile plan.

This was the Dongfeng 6 mentioned at the beginning of the article.

In December 1966, the National Defense Science and Technology Commission agreed to include the Dongfeng-6 in the development plan.

In November 1967, the National Defense Science and Technology Commission held a Dongfeng-6 Orbiting Missile program demonstration meeting, which clarified the main tactical and technical specifications.

At the same time, the Dongfeng-6 space launch vehicle plan for carrying the first manned spacecraft Shuguang-1 (Dawn-1:曙光一号) of the country's along the first geosynchronous orbit satellite was planned.

A lot of technical coordination works were conducted many times.

In 1970, the National Defense Science and Technology Commission proposed to Premier Zhou Enlai and the Central Military Commission the Request for Instructions on the Development of Manned Spacecraft and Communication Satellites (Draft), and proposed the Shuguang-1 manned spacecraft (code name 714 project) with place for two astronauts, and flight time up to eight days in orbit. The plan was scheduled for the first unmanned spacecraft to be launched in 1973 and the maiden manned spacecraft in 1974.

The launch vehicle of the Shuguang-1 was to be the Dongfeng-6 Orbiting Missile.

In 1971, the Seventh Ministry of Machinery reported the Preliminary Development Plan for Dongfeng-6 to the National Defense Science and Technology Commission.

In this plan, it was clear that the range of the Dongfeng-6 would be 16'000 to 31'000 kilometers.

However, when the Dongfeng-6 missile was developed, the technical specifications proposed and the related technologies planned to be adopted were too advanced.

The plug nozzle engine belong to a class of altitude compensating nozzles, such a new class of engine planned to be used then has not even entered actual use until today.

Dongfeng-6 was a three-stage rocket. The first stage used a conventional 400-ton high-thrust engine, the second stage used an altitude compensating nozzle engine, and the third stage was a post-boost vehicle.

Each stages of this three-stage rocket used different rocket engines, making technical challenges too difficult.

By investing more time on the DF-6, it would have definitely affected the development of the equally important Dongfeng-5.

On 28th March 1974, the Seventh Ministry of Machinery informed the First Academy that, according to the instructions of the Deputy Director of the National Defense Science and Technology Commission Qian Xuesen, the National Defense Science and Technology Commission decided to stop the development of the Dongfeng-6.

Prior to this, the development of the Shuguang-1 manned spacecraft project had also begun to slow down.

In fact, Dongfeng-6 is not an intercontinental missile in the traditional sense, but a FOBS (Fractional Orbital Bombing System) missile system, also known as an Orbiting Missile.

FOBS is usually on standby on the ground, and when used, it is launched into earth orbit. After the rocket second stage is separated, according to ground instructions, the retro-rockets of the PBV are fired sending it into a deorbiting orbit into the atmosphere.

Because it only achieves a fraction of a complete orbit before reentering the atmosphere, it is called a fractional orbital bombing system.

However, if the developement of the Dongfeng-6 project had the conditions to continue, it should still be able to succeed.

After all, in terms of overall technical level, the Dongfeng-6 is equivalent to an uprated version of the Dongfeng-5.

Even if it did not place nuclear warheads in orbit, it could have been used in civilian manned spaceflight.

If the development of the Dongfeng-6 had not been cancelled, China's first manned spaceflight would not have taken place only in 2003, but 25 years earlier.


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5. The Shuguang-1 (Dawn One) manned spacecraft (code-named Project 714) was piloted by two astronauts and had a maximum flight time of eight days. It was planned to launch an unmanned spacecraft in 1973 and a manned spacecraft in 1974. The Shuguang-1 was lanched by the Dongfeng-6 Orbiting Missile.

North Korea’s Fractional Orbital Bombing System

Peeking under the shroud of North Korea’s Monster Missile

November 5, 2020

Some unresolved questions surround the huge new mobile missiles that North Korea showed off in last month’s parade. Most of all: what will they carry, and when will the North Koreans reveal it through flight-testing?

Let’s start with what we can observe. The external characteristics of the weapon are consistent with a two-stage, liquid-propelled ICBM. In many ways, it’s similar to the Hwasong-15, which North Korea tested in 2017, but on a larger scale. My CNS colleagues estimate that the new missile is about 25 m long, compared to the roughly 20 m-long HS-15. It has a first stage of about 2.4 m [3 m] in diameter, compared to the approximately 2.1 m [2.4 m] diameter of the HS-15.

Like the HS-15, the Monster Missile features a “skirt” at the base of its first stage, suggesting a cluster of gimbaled engines, and an evocatively named “shroud” over its payload section at the front. That’s a hollow cover that pops off after the missile leaves the atmosphere, allowing whatever the missile carries to deploy.

As Mike Elleman and Vann van Diepen were quick to observe, the HS-15 already appears capable of sending a heavy payload to anyplace on the mainland of these United States. It follows that the new missile wasn’t built for greater range, but to carry a bigger, heavier payload. Which means… what?

Even before the parade, veteran intelligence analysts Markus Garlauskas and Bruce Perry noted that the logical next step for the North Korean ICBM program would be to deploy multi-warhead missiles in order to thwart U.S. missile defenses. Ensuring that North Korea’s nuclear weapons can penetrate the American “shield” may be what Kim Jong Un meant when he said in 2017 that “our final goal is to establish the equilibrium of real force [or “effective balance of power”] with the U.S. and make the U.S. rulers dare not talk about [a] military option for the DPRK.”

The U.S. pioneered the multiple reentry vehicle (MRV) concept in the early 1960s, followed by the multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV). The Soviet Union caught up with their own versions within a decade or so. You could think of MRV as nuclear grapeshot, spraying a handful of bombs across one area. MIRV is more precise and more adaptable; it involves a small rocket engine called a post-boost vehicle, or “bus,” that pushes each warhead it carries onto a selected course, sending them to different targets if desired.

Some combination of multiple warheads and missile-defense countermeasures–chaff, decoys, and so forth–has become the favorite in this morbid little guessing game. If they’re ambitious, perhaps the North Koreans might be trying to replicate Britain’s Chevaline payload, which was designed to let its Polaris missiles thwart nuclear-tipped interceptors placed around Moscow. Chevaline was a two-warhead system with a post-boost vehicle that dispensed countermeasures into various patterns in space. It’s also rather well-documented today, as these things go.

There’s another possibility that I’ve yet to see explored at length, though. Let’s call it a dark horse. It’s another approach to beating missile defense, and one that requires a heavy payload, but no more than a single warhead per missile. That’s the fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS).

FOBS was a Soviet innovation, brought to fruition in the mid-1960s, before the USSR developed its own multiple-warhead missiles. It involved a modified ICBM that launched its payload into low earth orbit. When the payload approached its target, an onboard retro-rocket would fire, deorbiting the warhead.

The advantage of FOBS was its ability to circumvent NORAD’s lines of early-warning radars in Canada. The FOBS weapon could be launched in any direction, allowing the USSR to launch an attack over the South Pole if desired.

Today’s early-warning radars don’t just provide warning; they also supply crucial data to the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD). These radars are located in Alaska, Greenland, the UK, California, and Massachusetts, pointing north, west, and east, whereas the interceptors themselves are mostly in Alaska, waiting for an attack from the north. Thus, the same old FOBS concept remains applicable. It’s even enjoying new life in Russia, whose president has said that the Sarmat multi-warhead missile can attack over either the North or the South Pole.

With the ability to attack in FOBS mode, North Korea could compel the United States to an unhappy choice: either build what amounts to a substantially new, south-facing defensive architecture, or accept that it cannot physically prevent nuclear attack from Pyongyang, even under the sunniest of assumptions about GMD’s performance.

Even if North Korea is building a FOBS today, its leaders probably anticipate a transition to MIRV in time, following the Soviet precedent. But FOBS could have certain advantages for now. First, the technology simply might be more rapidly attainable. Second, sticking with just one warhead per missile demands less fissile material. Third, it also avoids creating pressure to return to nuclear testing to demonstrate the smaller, lighter warheads most suited to MRV or MIRV. Fourth, being able to deorbit a payload essentially anywhere means that North Korea could finally conduct a fully realistic and instrumented test of an intercontinental-class reentry vehicle on its own territory, or close to its own shores; they’d just have to fly one all the way around the world.

There’s an uncomfortably large chance that we’ll find out soon what the Monster Missile hides under that shroud. A transition to a Biden administration on January 20, 2021 gives Kim Jong Un an incentive to try to demonstrate the existence of an “effective balance of power” beforehand, since it might strengthen his hand without directly challenging the newly inaugurated president. Kim has set the 8th Workers’ Party Congress for January as well; the success of a “new strategic weapon”–either real success or merely alleged–could set the stage for changes in governing structures and the direction of policy.

Whatever does happen, I can’t see any benefits from sitting back and waiting for North Korea to demonstrate the ability to overcome GMD by whatever means. That will mean bargaining for the reaffirmation of Kim Jong Un’s April 2018 pledge not to test long-range missiles or nuclear devices, which he declared a dead letter in January of this year. How that will work will be up to the new team in Washington, but the sooner they decide on their approach, the better.


LlVBSku.jpg

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6. Iranian 1'800 kg E1 spacecraft: new prototype disclosed in 2016 on the left, first 2015 exhibition model on the right。

Ufp6XdA.jpg

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7. North Korean Unha-9 SLV carrying the 1'800 kg one-seater E1 spacecraft (Mallima: “千里马号”(천리마)), similar to the Project 714 Shuguang-1 spacecraft。

The model disclosed so far by Iran of the E1 is only the reentry vehicle. Because it is the only part to be tested in the first suborbital phase.

Expect a future orbital module to be disclosed only after that, in the phase two when orbital manned flight will be considered, and similar in shape and size to the Soviet 8F673 orbital module!

Vehicle DesignSoviet 8K69 FOBS Chinese DF-6 (东风六号)
North Korean Unha-9 (은하9호)
Start of DevelopmentApril 196219712012
First flightDecember 1965Planned 1973
Project cancelled on 28 March 1974
Speculated 2021
Total length32.60 m 45 m ~44 m
Diameter 3.05 m 3 m
Gross liftoff weight181 t 270 t ~210 t
Stage3 33
Payload weight LEO/warhead 4.5 t /
1.7 t @150km
3.200 t ~4 t / 1.8 t
Max range 40'000 km 31'000 km
Stage 1 Hwasong-16
Length 18.90 m ~18.5 m
Diameter 3 m 3 m
Liftoff weight
125 t 131 t
Engines
1*RD-251
4 * Paektusan-1D
Thrust
880.0 kN (Vac.)
Total thrust2366 kN/2640 kN Vac
400 tf 3520 kN (Vac.)
PropellantUDMH/N2O4
liquid UDMH/N2O4
Stage 2 Hwasong-15
Length 9.40 m ~16.50 m
Diameter 3 m 2.4 m
Liftoff weight 48 t 61.50 t
Engines 1*RD-252 altitude compensating nozzle engine 1 * Paektusan-1C
Thrust 880.0 kN (Vac.)
Total thrust940.400 kN/955.991 kN Vac 880.0 kN (Vac.)
PropellantUDMH/N2O4
liquid UDMH/N2O4
Stage 3 OGCh
Length 3 m
Diameter 2.4 m
Liftoff weight 1700kg 12.65 t
Engines RD-854 2 *
Thrust 7.7 t
Total thrust
Propellant UDMH/N2O4 liquidUDMH/N2O4


4d00b080a55a838c1684a0a2b594fc04a6758294.gif

6e323515d66ee30841cae4a9a7318d3b72b3e685.gif

ae4ffdaeb02c2ea160fb33e41686a846f36755ca.gif

022c2d783cdf337beef335add6afdbf99880963d.png
4b7f704c1b6a7a2291742bd3986353bc70cc2569.png


Thanks the animosity between Kim Jong Un and President Biden, an imminent test launch is nearly unavoidable.

Due to courtesy for Trump, nothing will be attempted before Joe Biden is sworn in as the 46th president of the United States on 20th January 2021.

Expect a 11th February 2021 (Bahman 22) first launch window!

:cool:🚬
 
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Update:

No wonder, the range from both Iran and North Korea for an FOBS targeting the U.S.A. mainland from the south direction, after circumnavigating the South Pole and the Southern Hemisphere is 30'000 km. Similar to the DF-6 FOBS.

zSYeykO.jpg

https://archive.is/ivyJH/72cfd94021754183dd05ba21e89c47aca915ceb9.jpg ; https://archive.is/ivyJH/c0b2abee4477a09093ddac025a9c5621d2cca7be/scr.png ; http://web.archive.org/web/20201115042022/https://i.imgur.com/zSYeykO.jpg
1. The range from both Iran and North Korea for an FOBS targeting the U.S.A. mainland from the south direction, after circumnavigating the South Pole and the Southern Hemisphere is 30'000 km.

4d00b080a55a838c1684a0a2b594fc04a6758294.gif

6e323515d66ee30841cae4a9a7318d3b72b3e685.gif

ae4ffdaeb02c2ea160fb33e41686a846f36755ca.gif

022c2d783cdf337beef335add6afdbf99880963d.png
4b7f704c1b6a7a2291742bd3986353bc70cc2569.png


:cool:🚬
 
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