WHEN CHINA BECOMES NO.1, WHAT HAPPENS THEN?

[Aepsilons]

The Japanese warrior regarding beheading enemies is morally acceptable compared to imprisoned enemies and torturing them like what the Chinese did.

What is also quite interesting, Madoka-chan, is that when you read into Japanese military history , the way Japanese army treated Korean and Chinese prisoners of war was actually similar to how Japanese treated their own kind. For example, the way the Imperial Army had treated East Asian prisoners of war during the Korean Insurrection Wars or during the 1st Sino Japanese War was quite similar to how the Imperial Army had treated Japanese insurgents captured during the War of Satsuma Rebellion in the late 19th century. Prisoners were summarily executed under the Imperial custom of decapitation. In fact this was considered an honorable fate for enemy soldiers.

During the 1915 Siberian expedition when Japan sent an army corp into Russia, the way Japanse treated Russian soldiers captured in battle was different because the enemy were not East Asian, or Confucian to be exact, hence they were treated according to Western standard. During the 1st World War, when Japanese aided the English by destroying the German assets in Asia and the Pacific, after German fortifications were destroyed and after German soldiers yielded to the Japanese Imperial Army's onslaught, when they surrendered --- they were treated according to Western custom, not Confucian (Japanese) custom of War since they were Gaijin (Foreign).

In regards to Chinese, Japanese insurrectionists and Koreans --- they were treated according to Japanese military penal code standards. In fact decapitation of enemy soldiers was standard for the Japanese Army for over 2 thousand years. In fact during the mass execution of Japanese insurrenctionists during the Great Satsuma Rebellion , when the Imperial Army vanquished the enemy's central force, some several thousands of rebels had requested that they be aided to commit Seppuku rather than be given summary decapitation.

They literally committed Seppuku to death (sans decapitation), they all bled to death , and that took 3-4 hours at least.

THAT was the old Japanese way of death in the military sense.

 

[CCP]

China needs to focus on 6 things regardless when it surpasses the US economy.

1. Economy
2. Science & Technology
3. Military
4. Education
5. Corruption
6. Core interests ( Taiwan, SCS, ESC)

It will be pretty much the same for China but with more economic and military perks, we should be cautious on how we use both these perks to our advantage.

Taiwan and SCS isuues will be solved in next 10 years( However Xi want to finish them in his term)

East China Sea isuues (DiaoYu isands and Ryukyu/okinawa islands) will be solved in next 20 years.

watch from 2:21:00 to 2:24:40.

金灿荣 : 中华人民共和国政治学家、美国问题专家，中国人民大学国际关系学院副院长、教授。

Prof. Jin Canrong

School of International Studies
Renmin University
金灿荣
Field of Activity

Professor for International Relations

 

[TaiShang]

There are a lot of very naive kids posting here who simply do not realise that economic power and military power are one and the same for an independent power.

Exactly so.

I would even argue economic power is the baseline for sustainable military power. Without enough finances, even the established nuclear arsenal of a country would face the danger of being outdated and less effective/deterrent.

Russia being a full nuclear power will enjoy a considerable military deterrence in the final analysis, but, it definitely needs to maintain a healthy economic structure and growth to deal with regional and global contingencies that would call for intervention sans nuclear option.

Economic baseline is the most important for not simply defense-related development, it is also important for social, moral and innovative fabric of a society.

For that reason, China will maintain its developmentalist approach with scaled-down offensive posture. It won't resort to brute force unless it is really forced. To close the diplomacy gap created by the lack of the military option, China will further emphasize the developmentalist diplomacy.

About the future, it is anybody's speculation. I would argue that China would maintain the general lines of harmonious existence, but, definitely, it will become less and less tolerant of the breaches of its sovereignty by external powers.

When China becomes NO.1, among many things, this will more likely happen: Gordon Chang's true identity is finally reviewed to the world as the chief of China Overseas Bureau of Camouflage. He receives the Medal of Liberation from Chinese government for his courage and outstanding deception results, and apology from Chinese people for misunderstanding him.

1- In spite of so much of -ve publicity in Indian media, i am a firm believer that China and India are not cultural enemy...If at any point of time, US and free world of West goes down, it is better to have a atheist/Budhist China rise to the top rather than that places is taken up any nut job orthodox religious nations.

That's exactly my opinion, as well. The world has suffered long enough under religio-fascist regimes, first with European colonialism and then US imperialism.

That's the reason I value Northeast Asian regional dynamics because of the inherent secularism. Any neighbor of China embracing absolute secularism, I am in favor of developing better relations. Hence the reason I would always prioritize relations with Vietnam over the Philippines.

Coming from a guy who doesn't even have a clue about America's nuclear triad.

Even the most hawkish US members in PDF despise the stupidity from this guy, and Trump's supporters mostly come of the lowest common denominator of the US population who probably can't even point out both China and Vietnam on the map.

Trump supporters represent the true fabric of the US, nonetheless -- the low-educated, feared, mostly White folks who yearn for the days long gone. Trumps simply injects some dose of economic reality and foreign policy surrealism; people gobble it up.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

In fact the opposite is true. Russia is looking forward to China becoming the No.1 economy of the World.
China may dominate Russia Far East or perhaps the world but look who is more concern.

IMO Turkey is naturally worried because she has just offend Russia and Russia is a strategic military partner of China e.g. both nations conducted their naval exercise in the Mediterranean Sea. Incidentally during the exercise it was revealed by RT that the Chinese naval warships can detected the Russian Kilo submarines. And the million dollar question i: Will the Christian NATO rescue the Islamic Turkey?

Hence IMO when Vietnam deployed their new Kilo submarine in the shallow SCS, the Sunda Shelf it is suicidal as the Chinese Navy can easily destroyed them with her ASROC since they can detect them. Maybe that is why China never complained or attempted to stop Russia from supplying either the SU-30 or Kilo submarine to Vietnam.

Turkey has been defending herself for the last thousand years.

 

[Shotgunner51]

"international financial balance sheet" what is that? Care to share?

Sure bro, let me put in in simple language. Everyone, every company small or big, has a balance sheet (资产负债表). You have assets e.g. fixed like houses, or liquid like cash or securities. You also have liabilities like loans. The difference between assets and liabilities is your net position. If you have a high net position then congrats you are a HNWI (high net worth individual)!

Money flows between nations in all possible forms, like merchandise trade, service trade, investment, loans. So any single nation has both assets and liabilities against rest-of-the world, the difference between the two is the net international position (Net International Investment Position, NIIP). The sum of NIIP for all economies is zero.

For more advanced reading, please read topics related to Balance of Payment (BoP), Net International Investment Position. You may find this link useful: Sixth Edition of the IMF's Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6)

If you have any more query please feel free to contact me, thanks!

 

[barbarosa]

There will be peace in the world.

 

[gambit]

Trump supporters represent the true fabric of the US, nonetheless -- the low-educated, feared, mostly White folks who yearn for the days long gone. Trumps simply injects some dose of economic reality and foreign policy surrealism; people gobble it up.

True fabric ?

The same could be said for any leader, or aspirant leader, who uses simplistic ideas and populist sentiment to engage the lowest common denominator of society. In that case, look at the history of your China and see that 'true fabric'.

 

[CCP]

Money flows between nations in all possible forms, like merchandise trade, service trade, investment, loans. So any single nation has both assets and liabilities against rest-of-the world, the difference between the two is the net international position (Net International Investment Position, NIIP). The sum of NIIP for all economies is zero.

For more advanced reading, please read topics related to Balance of Payment (BoP), Net International Investment Position. You may find this link useful: Sixth Edition of the IMF's Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6)

If you have any more query please feel free to contact me, thanks!

That means we can be NO.1 on the list if we stop to accept any foreign investment.

I don't know why you want China be No.1 on that list.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Precisely, please read my post #33, bro.

Exactly, that well explain post #31. The economic structure of China is entirely different from that of US, which is very "unique".

• China's model is just an ordinary one already practiced by East Asia and Germanic countries for decades, nothing special at all i.e. building civilian economy, home and abroad. Fundamental economic interests determines direction of diplomacy, fostering a stable international trade environment is in China's interests. Maintaining a modest military (re-investing a low % of economy) is basic necessity for any nation, after all no one can take peace for granted in existing international "security" order, sleeping better with a gun under the pillow doesn't mean actually going out and shoot somebody.

• Being the prevailing international settlement and reserve currency, sustainability of dollar and its associated recycling system is in everyone's interests. While preserving revenues for the privately-owned military corporations, the unique dollar printing regime should remove fiscal deficit, put a lid on debt ceiling, through increasing tax on the public and/or reducing their welfare.

 

[TaiShang]

February 1972, Shanghai Communique, China inserted (anti) hegemony clause, the first bilateral statement of political principles which includes a hegemony clause.

Just several months after, In September 1972, Sino-Japanese Statement included the exact hegemony clause. @Nihonjin1051 .

Ever since, China has continuously stressed the primacy of the anti-hegemony rule. (Hegemony is defined as expansion of power politically and economically, and exercise of control).

This is the future envisioned by China, and has been empirically verified time and again.

 

[Shotgunner51]

That means we can be NO.1 on the list if we stop to accept any foreign investment.

I don't know why you want China be No.1 on that list.

Just a technical note:

• When a FDI happens, it's booked both in external liability (under inbound FDI) and external asset (under forex reserves). The net effect on position is zero at the time of booking.
• The impact will come later, depending on return on investment on the inbound FDI against forex reserve.

 

[CCP]

Just a technical note:

• When a FDI happens, it's booked both in external liability (under inbound FDI) and external asset (under forex reserves). The net effect on position is zero at the time of booking.
• The impact will come later, depending on return on investment on the inbound FDI against forex reserve.

Well, FDI is not equal to foreign investment and your table is "Net International Investment Position".

 

[Shotgunner51]

Well, FDI is equal to foreign investment.

Yes, for details please check: Sixth Edition of the IMF's Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6)

For example:

• You take a loan of $100 from a foreigner, you will also own $100 of cash, your net position does not change.
• In one year, your $100 cash turns into $130 through some magic (investment or whatever), your loan turns into $107, your add $23 to your position, congrats. Of course, it may also go negative.

On topic, the forex reserves has always been a "headache" for China's treasurer.

 

[CCP]

Yes, for details please check: Sixth Edition of the IMF's Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6)

For example:

• You take a loan of $100 from a foreigner, you will also own $100 of cash, your net position does not change.
• In one year, your $100 cash turns into $130 through some magic (investment or whatever), your loan turns into $107, your add $23 to your position, congrats. Of course, it may also go negative.

On topic, the forex reserves has always been a "headache" for China's treasurer.

Ok , I am not going to read that 321 pages but I have to say : being NO.1 of the list is not a bad thing but it barely related to a county's strength.

We know US is the NO.1 right now but she is in the bottom of that list.

 

[Kyle Sun]

No world power will give their power to another country for free. Sparta vs Athens, Germany vs UK (ww1) etc etc. China knows this and thats why they are trying to become #1 under the radar, without pushing the Americans too much. So I dont think the question is if China will behave, but rather if the US will behave if China becomes #1. Will the US use military options (which I doubt) or more economic options and perhaps try to weaken China from the inside?

Secondly and more important. The USA is a great country because its a melting pot of different cultures. There are blacks, whites, Asians , Hispanics etc etc. And this is the reason the USA cant claim to be racial superior to any other country. China is a homogenic country, and that can indeed bring problems if the Chinese decide to look down on other nationalities.

How will China co-op with its neighboring countries? The economist analysed the situation good in my opinion:

"China cannot show weakness on what it sees as issues of national sovereignty"

One thing is for sure, the rise of China is bad for Russia. Thats why the Russians are afraid that one day, China will dominate the Russian far east.

Good speak.