WHEN CHINA BECOMES NO.1, WHAT HAPPENS THEN?

[Shotgunner51]

Whit a rising Chinese power, its most likely that they will abandon their non-interventionist policy in the future. The USA where once also non-interventionist, but with rising power more and more responsibilities will come. And more interests to safeguard.

There is fundamental difference, it began with:
Military-Industrial Complex Speech, Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1961

And nowadays:
Eisenhower's Military-Industry Complex Warning, 50 Years Later : NPR
Charles Rangel Calls for War Tax, Reinstating the Draft

 

[Mrc]

One thing is for sure..... sale of burnol will go right up next door

 

[Aepsilons]

Whit a rising Chinese power, its most likely that they will abandon their non-interventionist policy. The USA where once also non-interventionist, but with rising power more and more responsibilities will come. And more interests to safeguard.

That is the tactical scenario if the Chinese were to become the unmitigated sole military super power in the position of the United States. But that won't be the case since the Chinese have a multidimensional national sovereign complex, with the core emphasis being national and demographic development, particularly heavy industry, and agricultural revolution, bolstered by overseas national development programs (Africa, Latin America, South East Asia, South Asia and to an extent even Europe). Chinese military is , in her own right, a force to be reckoned with, but they do not have overarching policies nor are they even expanded upon on an overseas control paradigm, rather, they are mostly mobilized and stationed in home. The Chinese don't even have an advanced foreign military base the likes the United States has deployed in Diego Garcia, Japan, Korea, Germany, UK, Guam, the Pacific, Italy, et al.

Coupled with the current eco-political platforms such as the Chinese-led RCEP, SCO, and their AIIB, the Chinese are keen to share the burden of responsibility with their partners. Their strength is economic-based political security. Not necessarily purely militaristic jingoism.

THAT said, China understands that her environment is rife with competition with the rise of a growing and resurgent India, the rise of Russian military power, as well as the resurgence of Japan , having to deal with the growth of the AEC (Asean Economic Community and Asean integration process) , as well as having to deal with the corroborated strength of the United States-led NATO alliance and the United States military complex as well as American-led political and economic alliances , China will be a leader in a multipolar world, not necessary THE leader. And i think China has resigned herself to accepting that notion as China is one of the proponents of a MULTI-polar world and against the Western-led global order.


Regards.

There is fundamental difference

Military-Industrial Complex Speech, Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1961
Eisenhower's Military-Industry Complex Warning, 50 Years Later : NPR

Precisely, please read my post #33, bro.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Whit a rising Chinese power, its most likely that they will abandon their non-interventionist policy in the future. The USA where once also non-interventionist, but with rising power more and more responsibilities will come. And more interests to safeguard.

Why do we need to be an interventionist when the world policeman (USA) already starts 2-3 wars/invasions per decade?

Let the world policeman handle all that. We'll sit back and build up our capabilities while the rest of the world focuses on the Middle East.

All we need is time, we are adding 1 trillion to our economy every year and modernizing all of our other capabilities at an unprecedented rate. Every year that goes by is another step on our path to becoming a developed country.

As for the outside world, our only real long-term goal is to see a multi-polar system where all the major powers have a say, rather than the current uni-polar system. That would be relatively better for us then the current system.

 

[scherz]

Whit a rising Chinese power, its most likely that they will abandon their non-interventionist policy in the future. The USA where once also non-interventionist, but with rising power more and more responsibilities will come. And more interests to safeguard.

I agree with most of your points.
In the future when China become stronger and USA trying to sabotage chinese influence in Africa and South-America, surely China need to defend its interest. Supposedly proxy wars between USA and China will rise with the risa of Chinas part of the cake in the world which is taken from the USA.

 

[Aepsilons]

I agree with most of your points.
In the future when China become stronger and USA trying to sabotage chinese influence in Africa and South-America, surely China need to defend its interest. Supposedly proxy wars between USA and China will rise with the risa of Chinas part of the cake in the world which is taken from the USA.

Naturally if there is a direct threat to core national interests, the Chinese State will react in proportion to the gravitas of such a threat. Any respectable nation would, irrespective of geopolitical and political ideology, would do the same. However, due to the shear size of China, she has the largest standing arm, a growing naval power, and an economy that equals the United States and (possibly will eclipse Washington's), it would be unwise to do so openly. The United States will most probably do , as what you have said, resign to proxy conflicts , which has been the modus operandi the United States played with the Soviets during the Cold War. There will never be a direct war between Super Powers as the Cold War had shown in how the US and the USSR competed with each other.

The moment nuclear armed super powers start confronting each other directly, it is the moment one should head for the hills and build a nuclear-proof safe place with enough resources to last 5-6 months of nuclear winter.

IN other words, there will be no direct confrontation.

 

[ZeusMK]

to be honest, the way i see it, china is already number 1.

 

[haviZsultan]

to be honest, the way i see it, china is already number 1.

Its GDP has already crossed that of America.

 

[Atlanticore]

One thing I admire about the Chinese foreign policy is their non-interventionist mandate. This culture of 'boots on the ground' is not something they readily do unless China is attacked. Other than that , they utilize economic diplomacy as an agent to propagate their national interests.

I suppose economic diplomacy is a tool for Chinese foreign policy, whereas the United States utilizes her shear military might as political measure. That is the dichotomy between Chinese and American foreign policy mechanisms.

In that aspect I suppose having a multipolar world may not necessarily be a bad thing , as it allows the advances the national priorities without having to be too wary on abstractist political ideologies and notions of maintenance of a supposed world / global order.

Very Well Said Sir. I believe that their is bright future of Sino-Japanese Relationship as Cultural identities are strong with in these 2 great countries. I don't think US have much to offer except its Military Co-operation but self reliance is always in the best interest of a country.

 

[KingWest]

I agree with most of your points.
In the future when China become stronger and USA trying to sabotage chinese influence in Africa and South-America, surely China need to defend its interest. Supposedly proxy wars between USA and China will rise with the risa of Chinas part of the cake in the world which is taken from the USA.

The time of Mao Zedong 's Five principles of Peaceful Co-existence may end in the future.The world in which China lived than is different than todays world. It was a mostly isolated country. Under threat by de Sovjet-Union in the 60's and under threat by the United States . It coudnt fight wars way behind their borders because it needed a strong military at home to defend itself. That however didnt stop the Chinese from defending their interest in Korea and Vietnam.
China's zone of influence is growing nowadays with a rising China in terms of military and economy. The Chinese zone of influence doesnt stops at vietnam but goes as far as Africa in terms of investment etc. China doesnt intervene in countries today because it doesnt want to alienate its relations with the West or Russia. But with growing investment and trade between China and for example key-allies in Africa, we cant expect the Chinese to keep quiet when their investments are jeopardized. (For example in Libya where lots of Chinese needed to evacuate because NATO decided to remove Khadaffi).
In the future, war between multiple great powers will of course not happen really fast. Country's like China wil fight indirectly with proxys and support friendly regimes accros the globe.

 

[j20blackdragon]

Most of these assumptions about China being non-interventionist and having a self-defense foreign policy comes from China's past history of being a mostly agrarian nation.

The industrial revolution changes everything.

If China becomes No. 1, we will see a global Chinese empire by the middle of the 21st century. My reasoning is very simple. China will need a global empire to guarantee an uninterrupted flow of commodities and natural resources into China to power an economy that supports 1.5 billion people by midcentury. Don't forget that China has already removed the one-child policy in 2015 under nationalist hardliner Xi Jinping. President Xi Jinping is also the same guy that constantly talks about a 'Chinese Dream' and a new Chinese renaissance.

Here's the scary part. Right now China is arguably still a third world country on a per capita basis. But look at the jaw-dropping commodities consumption already.

What happens when China's GDP per capita reaches the level of Taiwan, or God forbid Singapore? How much commodities and natural resources will be needed to power a juggernaut economy like that? Where will it come from?

The answer: from the rest of the world.

You think the US Navy will keep the sea-lanes open so China can gobble up 100% of the world's natural resources? Of course not. In conclusion, WW3 is coming.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Its GDP has already crossed that of America.

Yes in both agricultural GDP and industrial GDP. So as in major indicators like manufacturing value added, steel production, electricity generation, merchandise exports, hi-tech exports, etc. However in services GDP, China is still second due to low consumption high savings.

In terms of international financial balance sheet, the two are in exactly opposite directions so no comparison.

 

[Aepsilons]

Very Well Said Sir. I believe that their is bright future of Sino-Japanese Relationship as Cultural identities are strong with in these 2 great countries. I don't think US have much to offer except its Military Co-operation but self reliance is always in the best interest of a country.

You know, my friend, besides minor (excessively very minor) issues such as historical disagreements , which will be settled in time, there is very little areas that Japan opposes China in. Territoriality will be solved accordingly and issue of maritime security will be solved through bilateral arrangments. If you know , all this hoopla about Japan "resisting" China in the South China Sea has been US military media and US pressuring Japan. Besides a show of security appraisal , the Japanese security forces have not engaged the Chinese even in our Senkaku / Daiyutai issue since 2012-2013, a sign of Japan's willingness to calm the issue and restore order / find a solution , a diplomatic one.

The United States , you see my friend, wants to put discord between Japan and China and will play the territoriality card to further bridge Japan with China , which ultimately will secure Washington's imposed alliance system on Japan. I have seen this now that further complications with Beijing only SERVERELY hurts Japan. The two (Japan and China) are just too heavily integrated economically for there to be any 'Japanese safe landing' in the event of a Chinese collapse. It won't happen. If China collapses, Japan collapses. Period.

In fact this week --- with Chinese stock market routing 7%, the Nikkei Index fell close to 3%. It only rose when China stabilized their markets with government bond infusion. Anyways, i don't want to talk too much my friend as what i say is being watched with concern.

Its just best to know that Japan will survive even after the collapse of the Washington-Tokyo Strategic Alliance of 1951. Japan is over 3 Millennia Old. We are an ancient civilization that existed time immemorial with the Chinese before the dawn of civilization. Even before the idea of 'America' was breathed into existence by the English in the 17th century, there already was a NIPPON (Japan).

 

[KingWest]

You think the US Navy will keep the sea-lanes open so China can gobble up 100% of the world's natural resources? Of course not. In conclusion, WW3 is coming.

And thats why China is investing massive amounts of money into railroads and the socalled new silk-road. It knows it cannot match the USA yet in terms of naval power, but it does not want to be entirely dependend on sea lanes.

 

[Aepsilons]

And thats why China is investing massive amounts of money into railroads and the socalled new silk-road. It knows it cannot match the USA yet in terms of naval power, but it does not want to be entirely dependend on sea lanes.

My friend, you must study China in and out. You see we Japanese have a very strong , in grained understanding of Chinese psyche / Chinese psychology because we think similarly with them , we know them very well (afterall Japanese came from what is mainland China). Throughout China's 5 millennial history , they have never been an expansionist or exterminationist civilization. China , as a civilization, is not draconian in nature, they are and were an agricultural - based civilization, and relatively peaceful. The only wars China have had was the wars to integrate the Chinese princely states and to form the precursor of a unified China, the Qin Dynasty. Chinese have a saying , which direclty influences their civili society from the grassroots level to the national entity level -- This is what they call Tian Xia Wei Gong -- "All is Equal Under Heaven", which is the paradigm of Harmony (which we Japanese also hold quite dear).

China is not a religious society, she has never been a expansionist power rather, they have been largely economical in nature. Even during the height of their most glorious Dynasty, the Ming Dynasty, the Chinese explored the world and mapped the seas under the leadership of their famed admiral Zheng He, but they were not interventionist, rather, they did so to have an understanding of the world in relation to their Middle Kingdom.

Trade, Political Stability, Harmony, ORDER --- this is a trait of Confucian Civilization. And that cultural trait reflects on China, in a greater philosophical schema.

And thats why China is investing massive amounts of money into railroads and the socalled new silk-road. It knows it cannot match the USA yet in terms of naval power, but it does not want to be entirely dependend on sea lanes.

The Great Silk Road will ultimately connect the untapped markets of Central, West Asia, with the market of China and , ASEAN, and to an extent the maritime silk road with Japan. This is economic-based political rapprochement , my friend.