What would escalate war with Iran?

[Abii]

I don't think we will. What reason does the greater powers have to not interfere?

Foreign interference won't work in a country where 90% of the people are literate and the entire nation is industrialized. They can only fund proxies, but they won't be able to organize coups like they were able to do in the 50's and affect Iranian politics on a large scale. The coup of 54 only worked b/c there were Iranians willing to help USA kick out Mossadegh. In Iraq shia armed groups allow the mullahs to take advantage. Similarly the existense of sunni al quida allows the saudis to take advantage etc... In Iran people are much more united compared to before. Communism is no longer big in Iran. People no longer care about Islam and Islamic ideals like they did in the 70's. Nationalism is big.

Of course Western countries will have a big hand in Iran after the mullahs, but it won't be destructive like before. There will be alot of mutualy beneficial investments and cooperations.

 

[Armstrong]

@atatwolf: Dude wheres Deno these days ? Is she even posting these days ?

 

[Abii]

@ arm, they all prolly got a life, like I will in about a month and a half when I make my move to Alberta for work lol

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

He was a generous murderer. What would you think of Assad had he been generous to Jordan?

Jordan is no Kuwait my friend. He didn't dare to even shoot Syrians including FSA casualties after crossing borders. A year ago Syrian army shot dead a Syrian child after crossing borders by dew meters and the response was killing two Syrian soldiers and destroying their post.

 

[Lone]

...I think we can call this now as 'The war that will never happen' no?

 

[Armstrong]

@ arm, they all prolly got a life, like I will in about a month and a half when I make my move to Alberta for work lol

Does that imply that I ain't got a life !

Hey I'm just glad my exams are done & I'm free for the next few weeks !

Alberta - Oh Christ even the thought of that makes me shiver ! And whats worse the Gas pressure in Pakistan is abysmally low owing to our present reserves running out - Make the IP quicker !

 

[Etiene]

Foreign interference won't work in a country where 90% of the people are literate and the entire nation is industrialized. They can only fund proxies, but they won't be able to organize coups like they were able to do in the 50's and affect Iranian politics on a large scale. The coup of 54 only worked b/c there were Iranians willing to help USA kick out Mossadegh. In Iraq shia armed groups allow the mullahs to take advantage. Similarly the existense of sunni al quida allows the saudis to take advantage etc... In Iran people are much more united compared to before. Communism is no longer big in Iran. People no longer care about Islam and Islamic ideals like they did in the 70's. Nationalism is big.

Of course Western countries will have a big hand in Iran after the mullahs, but it won't be destructive like before. There will be alot of mutualy beneficial investments and cooperations.

Agree! But as you say that big hand will have two sides. All lessers powers have to agree to a degree of interference in their affairs if they want to be accepted in the international (american) community.

 

[atatwolf]

They will be deterred by nukes, so no worries. No other country except KSA will go for nukes. Only KSA has the manpower and infrastructure to do it. Turkey can do it too if she wants to.

That wouldn't stop Irani regime with its unheavenly policy. Only way to stop Iran is taking way its capability for producing nukes.

 

[Etiene]

That wouldn't stop Irani regimi with its unheavenly policy.

What would Turkey do if Iran and KSA got nukes?

 

[Abii]

Agree! But as you say that big hand will have two sides. All lessers powers have to agree to a degree of interference in their affairs if they want to be accepted in the international (american) community.

And that's what the masses of Iranians must understand. They don't understand that economic development these days can only be achieved by allowing the Americans some power. It will work out in the long run and we will have a chance to stab them in their backs when they're not looking. Allow them to come in and invest and when the time is right switch camps and start working with the Chinese (in 2-3 decades).

 

[The SiLent crY]

It is not like fighting in Syria where fly-in Shia fighters are fighting against Sunni rebels.

When fly-in Shia fighters come to Iran they will face U.S army. High tech equipment, newest jets/helicopters, and who has highly trained troops, communcation and intelligence.

Indeed Jihadist would be a zero factor in the equation.

All I can find in your posts is a big fear of the US which makes you wet .

Man , Just think for a moment . If Iran was that easy , Then why the US hasn't attacked after 4 decades ? Why some people are so fool and fool others ?

I think , one of the reasons that Sunnis have always bean losers , Underdog and a tool is their fear . Take a look on the population of Sunni countries . They have around 17% of world's population but most of them are like you that find themselves wet cos of fear of Americans . Just look at Israel and Arabs war ( the best possible example ) , Israel with 4 millions population is leading the whole Arabian world and there is no voice from them to support their Sunni brothers in Palestine , just Iran and other shia or alawite people .

War is not just weapons man , Its faith and ideology that are more important than equipments . The US is afraid of that , cos they study about the history of a country , what it's people believe and what their probable reaction would be if they're attacked and then start planing a war .

 

[tyrant]

That wouldn't stop Irani regime with its unheavenly policy. Only way to stop Iran is taking way its capability for producing nukes.

I think a deterrence of the same type is safe.
However as I said, they will probably limit the enrichment to 5% after an agreement with US and will not make nukes.

 

[Juice]

Around the clock bombing might do it.

 

[Etiene]

And that's what the masses of Iranians must understand. They don't understand that economic development these days can only be achieved by allowing the Americans some power. It will work out in the long run and we will have a chance to stab them in their backs when they're not looking. Allow them to come in and invest and when the time is right switch camps and start working with the Chinese (in 2-3 decades).

The question then is what kind power would the americans want. I admit I'm worried because when I look around around region I don't see prosperous countries, oil producing or not, I see instable or stagnated societies who in the long term will not have advanced despite being on good terms with the west. Is it in americas interest to have a strong,friendly and advancing Iran or a weak, friendly and dependent Iran. Of course the answer is the latter but since Irans interest is the former the outcome will probably be somewhere inbetween , but closer to the latter due to the power relationship.

 

[atatwolf]

What would Turkey do if Iran and KSA got nukes?

KSA can have weapons. Iran? Nobody wants Iran to have nukes.