What will Pakistan look like in 2020 ?

[abhy]

My apologies if this thread is in the wrong section, didn't know where to post this.

So my question is, what do Pakistanis think Pakistan will look like by the year 2020 ? [honestly]

1. Economically [export based, manufacturing based, services based, agriculture based]
2. Politically [Highly corrupt Democracy like under NS and BB, normal democracy, progressive military government, regressive military government]
3. Demographically [lower population growth, similar population growth as of today, higher population growth]
4. Social development wise [same as today, small increase in literacy, modest increase in literacy, huge increase in literacy]
5. Ideologically [theocratic Islamic state, moderate Islamic state (although i don't know what that means tbh), secular state, utter state of confusion as of today ]

I know the questions and options are a bit vague, so feel free to add your own points or definitions.

Thank You.

 

[Neo]

My apologies if this thread is in the wrong section, didn't know where to post this.

Moved it to Economy & Development section.

So my question is, what do Pakistanis think Pakistan will look like by the year 2020 ? [honestly]

Interesting question indeed, lets see if we have the same vision.

1. Economically [export based, manufacturing based, services based, agriculture based]

Recent reports from ADB and IMF are all bullish on our success, Pakistan has taken the lead in SA when it comes to reforms. Much will depend on future governments, if the current policies are endorsed and continued Pakistan will be looking at second level reforms during next Five Year plan designed to sustain growth between 8-10%.

Exports will see a boost when some of the FTA's we're dealing with will come into effect, specially trade with China, USA and Iran with expand three-fourfold.
LSM needs more FDI, it will continue to grow at medium pace of 8-10% unless domestic demand for locally manufactured goods grows drastically.

Service sector is healthy, we'll continue to export services aswell as trained manpower to countries like South Korea, Japan, EU and USA. GoP is undertaking good steps to promote outsourcing, we have the potential to become another back office like India.

Agriculture will face many hurdles, watermanagement being one of the top priorites. We need to complete four projected mega dams by 2012 inorder to grant enough water supply. Introduction of GM seeds is another project GoP is currently working on with assistance from USA and The Netherlands.
If implemented we'll see high growth in both production and yield.

2. Politically [Highly corrupt Democracy like under NS and BB, normal democracy, progressive military government, regressive military government]

With current developments its hard to tell what the political course will be in short terms, but I'm sure military will remain powerfull even if democracy is restored.

3. Demographically [lower population growth, similar population growth as of today, higher population growth]

Poplation is growing at 1.8% and, decreased from 3% in mid eighties. High growth is considered to be an asset today, countries like India and Pakistan will provide cheap labor for ageing markets like USA, EU and Japan.

4. Social development wise [same as today, small increase in literacy, modest increase in literacy, huge increase in literacy]

Literacy will climb at slow pace and settle around 60-65% by 2020, the figure is based on current trend.

5. Ideologically [theocratic Islamic state, moderate Islamic state (although i don't know what that means tbh), secular state, utter state of confusion as of today ]

I foresee a modern and moderate society. Youth make 60% of the population, with literacy rising among this group I assume we'll heading in the right direction.

I know the questions and options are a bit vague, so feel free to add your own points or definitions.

Thank You.

Lets see what other have to say.

 

[shimud]

My apologies if this thread is in the wrong section, didn't know where to post this.

So my question is, what do Pakistanis think Pakistan will look like by the year 2020 ? [honestly]

1. Economically [export based, manufacturing based, services based, agriculture based]
2. Politically [Highly corrupt Democracy like under NS and BB, normal democracy, progressive military government, regressive military government]
3. Demographically [lower population growth, similar population growth as of today, higher population growth]
4. Social development wise [same as today, small increase in literacy, modest increase in literacy, huge increase in literacy]
5. Ideologically [theocratic Islamic state, moderate Islamic state (although i don't know what that means tbh), secular state, utter state of confusion as of today ]

I know the questions and options are a bit vague, so feel free to add your own points or definitions.

Thank You.

By 2020 you might not have this country visible on the map of earth. FATA is about to annihilate their army. they are losing soldiers on daily basis. baluchs are fighting for independence, sindhis are fighting for independence, pakhtoons are interested in aligning with afghanistan, northern areas have their own liberation front. punjabis will not survive an indian attack in this case hence this country is not going to make it for time to come if things remain so. pakistanis are nationalist but its not on national level rather its based upon who you are and wher are you from. water scarcity will kill this nation if nothing else can do it. india's ambitious projects on the rivers flowing towards pakistan, violating the indus river system treaty, is adding in the gravity of the situation and nobody is bothering to interfere. let them first mend the internal matters of their country and then your questions will be valid.

 

[Skywalker]

By 2020 you might not have this country visible on the map of earth. FATA is about to annihilate their army. they are losing soldiers on daily basis. baluchs are fighting for independence, sindhis are fighting for independence, pakhtoons are interested in aligning with afghanistan, northern areas have their own liberation front. punjabis will not survive an indian attack in this case hence this country is not going to make it for time to come if things remain so. pakistanis are nationalist but its not on national level rather its based upon who you are and wher are you from. water scarcity will kill this nation if nothing else can do it. india's ambitious projects on the rivers flowing towards pakistan, violating the indus river system treaty, is adding in the gravity of the situation and nobody is bothering to interfere. let them first mend the internal matters of their country and then your questions will be valid.

Are sure about India, wether it would remain on the map by 2020, so it looks like Pakistan would be divided into 5 countries and India in 27 diefferent countries...wow more members for UNO and most importantly more money for UNO. .....Bari ghalat fehmi hai Pakistan kay barey mein......

 

[Janbaz]

By 2020 you might not have this country visible on the map of earth. FATA is about to annihilate their army. they are losing soldiers on daily basis. baluchs are fighting for independence, sindhis are fighting for independence, pakhtoons are interested in aligning with afghanistan, northern areas have their own liberation front. punjabis will not survive an indian attack in this case hence this country is not going to make it for time to come if things remain so. pakistanis are nationalist but its not on national level rather its based upon who you are and wher are you from. water scarcity will kill this nation if nothing else can do it. india's ambitious projects on the rivers flowing towards pakistan, violating the indus river system treaty, is adding in the gravity of the situation and nobody is bothering to interfere. let them first mend the internal matters of their country and then your questions will be valid.

All that you mention would not be a reality if there was a unifying leader. True Mr. Musharaff has helped economy but in my opinion bruised national unity..So if there were a unifying force, no one ought to fight!

 

[mujahideen]

By 2020 you might not have this country visible on the map of earth. FATA is about to annihilate their army. they are losing soldiers on daily basis. baluchs are fighting for independence, sindhis are fighting for independence, pakhtoons are interested in aligning with afghanistan, northern areas have their own liberation front. punjabis will not survive an indian attack in this case hence this country is not going to make it for time to come if things remain so. pakistanis are nationalist but its not on national level rather its based upon who you are and wher are you from. water scarcity will kill this nation if nothing else can do it. india's ambitious projects on the rivers flowing towards pakistan, violating the indus river system treaty, is adding in the gravity of the situation and nobody is bothering to interfere. let them first mend the internal matters of their country and then your questions will be valid.

I hope when you wrote this you were joking. I understand that Pakistan has many problems and it is no doubt one of the most divided countries in the world by all aspect, But believe me the country will not disintegrate again. Now all countries have internal problems such as ours, many have problems much worse then ours but they have made it and I believe we can too. The events of 1971 will not be repeated. All of the above reasons that you have stated are no doubt valid reason, but not valid enough. Whenever I see debates between Pakistani political parties, one thing that makes me proud is that the parties want to keep Pakistan intact. Now when the U.S. recently was spreading the news about sending its troops into FATA to hunt for Osama all the opposition political parties the MMA, PPP, PML(N) other parties were pressuring the government to send a tough response to Washington. Trust me this nation is one, when a war breaks out the nation becomes one, when a natural disaster occurs such as the earthquake in Kashmire we saw the whole nation become one and try to get through the tragedy. The reasons you have mentioned are the same propaganda spread by anti-Pakistan elements. As far is FATA, Frontier, Sindh, Northern Areas, Baluchistan are concerned they want to stay in Pakistan but want to be autonomious. Now what they mean by autonomy is different depending on who you speak to. I personally believe that if we had a common language we would not be talking about disintegration. And believe me as a Pakistani I will not and the people of Pakistan will not let Pakistan disintegrate, we have given to many sacrifices for this country and might I add we have all given sacrifices. I refuse to saluter the flag of any other country, I am a Pakistan and will always be one, this is my only identity, I have no other identity. We may be in turmoil now but we will make it, but again sacrifices will be required and in my opinion no sacrifice is too big for Pakistan. Now I am well aware that my arguments aren't as strong but believe me my belief in Pakistan is too strong, and no one can ever harm my belief in Pakistan. I believe Pakistan is here to stay and the enemies of Pakistan ought to suck it up because the Pakistani nation will never allow such designs to succeed.
PAKISTAN ALWAYS PAINDABAD !

 

[shimud]

well, you people have been commenting on my comments but i am not sure if you have ever realized how divided pakistanis are. its a reality and no extra exaggeration in it. i am studying at a european university. we have students from all over pakistan, some 30-35 people contingent but you know what happens here; punjabis talking in punjabi and thinking about punjab, sindhis thinking about sindh and talking sindhi, urdu speaking community speaking about their own problems and cursing everyone else and people from NWFP; would you believe that while serving as a volunteer for new comers i heard myself that the guys showing their pakistani identities but saying we are from pukhtoonistan. and we will change these passports as soon as we have gained freedom. how and why do you think you will remain united.

in comparision, on the independence day of india, we had a big indian stall displaying india and its greatness, yes it was so, they had everything to be proud of, united, speaking in english rather then their own regional languages; and on 14th august, well it was nothing to talk about. please think about these things logically and rationally. its not good to think that everything is good. it isn't. it has never been. on our cast and provincial level we may be united but on national level we are miserably divided.

do you know that its just last ramazan's event that once i had to break my fast in the evening, i was late at lab and unfortunately not carrying cash or food, didn't have anything at that time and some of our own guys prepared with everything didn't even bothered to invite me just because they knew that i am not amongst them, rather it was an indian hindu who was sitting just beside me at cafeteria and invited me himself without even any hesitation for fruit he was carrying home which he had bought from a nearby store. how and why do you think we are united. you can never ever change the basic instinct and mentality of one and even at this level when you are educated, have finances, you have got potential to do something good but you are not doing it, it senough to convince me that divided we are definitly gonna fall soon.

ponder over this thing and try to convince people. its in everybody's favor. your comments are welcome.

 

[mujahideen]

well, you people have been commenting on my comments but i am not sure if you have ever realized how divided pakistanis are. its a reality and no extra exaggeration in it. i am studying at a european university. we have students from all over pakistan, some 30-35 people contingent but you know what happens here; punjabis talking in punjabi and thinking about punjab, sindhis thinking about sindh and talking sindhi, urdu speaking community speaking about their own problems and cursing everyone else and people from NWFP; would you believe that while serving as a volunteer for new comers i heard myself that the guys showing their pakistani identities but saying we are from pukhtoonistan. and we will change these passports as soon as we have gained freedom. how and why do you think you will remain united.

in comparision, on the independence day of india, we had a big indian stall displaying india and its greatness, yes it was so, they had everything to be proud of, united, speaking in english rather then their own regional languages; and on 14th august, well it was nothing to talk about. please think about these things logically and rationally. its not good to think that everything is good. it isn't. it has never been. on our cast and provincial level we may be united but on national level we are miserably divided.

do you know that its just last ramazan's event that once i had to break my fast in the evening, i was late at lab and unfortunately not carrying cash or food, didn't have anything at that time and some of our own guys prepared with everything didn't even bothered to invite me just because they knew that i am not amongst them, rather it was an indian hindu who was sitting just beside me at cafeteria and invited me himself without even any hesitation for fruit he was carrying home which he had bought from a nearby store. how and why do you think we are united. you can never ever change the basic instinct and mentality of one and even at this level when you are educated, have finances, you have got potential to do something good but you are not doing it, it senough to convince me that divided we are definitly gonna fall soon.

ponder over this thing and try to convince people. its in everybody's favor. your comments are welcome.

Your comments are no doubt true and to hear of such thing it really hurts. But we cant deny it, these things are reality. But just one thing you mentioned India being united, trust me they are not as united as they seem. They have I think 14 moist insurgencies, and the Hindu religion is a very divided one itself, broken up into many castes and we must forget they speak many languages. I think Pakistan has less problems when it comes to unity then India. Now the problem with Pakistan like India is that we have different languages. Even the Quaid-I-Azam saw this danger and he did his best to address the problem of the language, but unfortunately that was not to be as for one of the main reasons for Pakistan's disintegration in 1971 was language. But we are a united nation. I mentioned before in wars, in celebrations, natural disasters and other events we tend to pull together. Look the bottom line is that we have our weaknesses but we are not as weak as we seem. For 60 years their has been an on going conspiracy. At independence we were denied our share of assets, our water supply was cut off, our territories were stolen from us (Kashmire, Jundagh, and Hyderabad Deccan) and we cant forget the 1948 war but we made it through, then when Afghanistan saw us as a threat and in 1951 they had our Prime Minister Saheed-I-Millat Laiquat Ali Khan assassinated. Now this young country had no leadership and one after the other governments came and went and finally Field Marshall Ayub Khan took over. Then came the war of 1965 came upon us. I can proudly say we stood together and defended the country and again our enemies failed. Then unfortunately our enemies saw an opportunity and broke the country in 1971 into two pieces, but again what remained of Pakistan become as strong as ever. Then India tested its nuclear device thus forcing us to rapidly increase our defense budget and instead of investing in things such as education, we had to invest on bombs. Then Russia saw an opportunity and tried to some how take over Pakistan. But we stood together and defeated Russia before they could set foot on our soil. Now in between their were many events and past this event their were many occasions when our liberty was threatened we stood as one. If we can get through all these things we can get through anything, but then again it is easier said then done.

 

[Vinod2070]

No one can predict the future in 2020 when we don't know what will happen in the next 2-3 years. The region and the world are at a very critical juncture. Events may take a force of their own which are not in our control.

But if we look dispassionately, most probably the extreme scenarios will not come to pass. It will depend on what choices the countries concerned make at this critical jucture.

It may be the positive scenario that Neo paints or something closer to what the situation is now. Depends mainly on the kind of leadership that is displayed in the next few crucial years.

 

[firefight]

Pakistan has many advantages economically
Our location is our main economic advantage
we are near Iran,Central Asia and the Caspian
all OIL rich areas and the center of all the action
everyone wants to be on our side. USA has to be nice
we are all they have to get access to this region,
we need good leadership to take advantage of this
unlike our present situation where we are constantly bullied.
India needs us for the Iranian pipeline, China needs us for
access to Middle East and USA needs us for everything.
We maybe in turmoil at present but with some stability we
are bound to become an economic powerhouse.

 

[Vinod2070]

Have the USA or Japan become economic powerhouses because of their locations?

Tell me a single large sized country which is an economic power solely due to its location.

Any country becomes great mainly due to it's population. Location may help to certain extent but can't be the sole or even the main criteria.

I have no doubt that Pakistan can become an economic power but it won't be because of it's location. You have had the same location for 60 years (actually since the time the Gondwana crashed into the Eurasian landmass).

I just don't understand this great obsession with location.

 

[firefight]

Yes USA did become a superpower because of it's location between
two Oceans. Japan became an economic powerhouse because of
special trade priveleges given to them by USA. First rule of buisness
is LOCATION,LOCATION,LOCATION. India will always be jealous they
lost the jewel that is Pakistan. I agree population does have some
reflection on ecomnomics but we do not have an overpopulation problem
and Pakistanis get jobs easily in many countries. Our location will play
a leading role in us becoming an economic power. Arabian sea to the south
Central Asia access, Leased ports, military favors, influence in the Middle
East and a strong Military, Pakistan has the best of everything.

 

[Vinod2070]

Good luck mate...

 

[khanz]

I agree with both of you I think location is important but there are other factors involved aswell.South korea is pretty small they have 1/4 our population ,no resources yet they are a trillionnaire country and they were infact poorer than pakistan when they came to be shame on us why didn't we follow them ? Pak has a massive population and a good location but the biggest problems are lack of education and political stability once we fix these two problems pakistan can improve.

 

[shimud]

I agree with both of you I think location is important but there are other factors involved aswell.South korea is pretty small they have 1/4 our population ,no resources yet they are a trillionnaire country and they were infact poorer than pakistan when they came to be shame on us why didn't we follow them ? Pak has a massive population and a good location but the biggest problems are lack of education and political stability once we fix these two problems pakistan can improve.

You not only need to educate people, you need to change the mentality, the way of thinking of the masses. some typical examples of how pakistani masses behave in case of facing problems:

-electricity load shedding -> burn the offices, vehicles of the electricity supply companies, unearth the poles on which cable is running

-traffic accident -> burn the responsible car, bus, truck

-long que at a utility booth -> make another que and force your way to service counter anyway, come hell or fire

-a political murder of a low level leader -> burn public properties, damage roads by burning tyres on them, stone pelting police trying to control the mob

and worst of all what is happening these days, 175 banks burned, tens of millions of worth of property destroyed, countless vehicles burned, they even burnt railway stations, train sets, bridges without thinking that its for their own use.

this is called as mob behavior and our people are champion of these things.
rather then using their own intelligence and judgement, they work on what they are listening even if the speaker is instigating them. this is our worst problem.

its a big task to perform. rural, tribal, ethnical, provincial, national...the mess is of such a magnitude that cleaning requires untill the domesday time.

we are burning our home by our own hands. nobody seems to be powerful enough to stop us from doing it.