Hello_10
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no one can guarantee what can happen in just next 6 months time. we have at least 50% chance that there will have been a change in world map also by next 1-2 years, lets see
. but we do prediction based on 'linearity', based on the things currently happening and if it all continue as it is, what will have happened after 8-10 years. so considering the things would continue as it is, without any dramatic change in world, I may say few 'Highly Likely' changes by 2020, that will have occurred by 2020, as below:1st, more than half of the OECD economies will have been crashed by 2020. first they are borrowing more, at the same time they are already heavily indebted, even debt level of US is around 103% to GDP right now while they have around 10% budget deficit to GDP also. and 43% of their budget goes for welfare, 18% defense, with around 88% on 'mandatory expanses' only. this simply means, only 12% of their budget goes for productive works. also, a developed economy can't have more than 1% to 2% growth rate on long term so there is limited hope that they will be able to reduce their debt level in future also
2nd,there will have been a dramatic change in the attitude of the people of world by 2020. even right now, people are buying chinese products and have no charm for even Japanese products also, like how it was till 90s when people were ready to pay twice for 'made in japan' products. even right now, we find around 90% cars running on the streets of developed countries have more than 50% imported parts from the developing countries, including more number of directly imported cars from developing countries. at the same time Indian and Chinese companies are buying top brands and have made them more successful under their management. it all simply means, we would expect that the country like China, India will have taken control over a big share of the market of expansive manufactured products by 2020. and it will come on the cost of reduced export order for the current OECD economies, as, why would people pay high price for the products made in a developed countries while the same type, or even better high tech products/cars etc, can be bought from developing countries who utilize cheap labor hence much reduced price of the same? have a look as below, how Indian management have given a 'U Turn' to almost a dying top brand of Luxury Car:
3rd, there will have been a social change in the current Western Countries. it is Highly Likely that low paid jobs will have backed to more than half of the OECD economies by 2020. as for example Greece, if it can't have enough export to import then finally it will have to depreciate its currency/ reduce labor cost to bring jobs?
by 2020, China will have become a very big market for High Tech products with low price which will have taken a big share of export of current OECD countries. it is highly likely that per capita income of China on PPP will have been at least over $20,000 by 2020 while that of many Western countries will have come below to this level, which will bring low paid jobs back to West. for example of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Great Britain, Spain (PIIGGS), are now having negative growth only and any type of little or big blow may easily bring their per capita income low enough to bring low paid jobs to their countries. I strongly believe that resource rich Australia/Canada type countries will have kicked Britain till then, as, then there will a flow of British low skilled labors to Australia/Canada which will increase burden on the locals which they won't accept . I have already predicted that the chance are only 50% that Britain will ever reach its economic size of mid 2008, as below, (also read the main news, post #1, of this thread):http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-...rst-double-dip-since-1970s-3.html#post2945123
=> with the above trend, I would predict India to be somewhere very close to China by 2020. but in fact, I do give a weight to the Indian professionals/businessmen that they will have put India on little higher success than China also by 2020, as per my vote on this topic
evil Indians are everywhere and they are going to get you 
and I'm partly guilty of that myself.
