What will end the war in Ukraine?

[ThunderCat]

 

[Paul2]

Ukraine military says Russian redline is a loss of 3 million, which I believe is easily achievable even without new weapons entering the game within 4-6 years.

We see however Russians also pursuing piecemeal approach to replenishment, wanting to save their money above all.

At the start, I gave Russia 18 months of high intensity warfare. They however abandoned the high intensity approach, and their armour losses slowed down by few times, and their ammo expenditure did accordingly.

I think they at least bought themselves another year, maybe more before they start eating grass.

Who knows, maybe they will pull out anothe rabbit out of the hat, and manage delay that again.

And even if they will hit the bottom, it does not mean an end. Look at DPR/LPR. Russians certainly know they can at least go as far as what they did with them.

Putin will be assasinated, and the pro-war faction will then complete the transformation to a military regime, and WW2 like economic curbs.

I however give that a half way situation is not impossible, given Russian great talent at combining the impossible.

1. They may squeeze some extra money without complete transition to command economy
2. Pro-war faction may find a way to seize power without completely axing Putin
3. They can find ways to prolong the war by switching to even more slower, and cheaper tactics
4. A social collapse will happen, but Putin survives it without losing power to the pro-war faction

 

[ThunderCat]

Ukraine military says Russian redline is a loss of 3 million, which I believe is easily achievable even without new weapons entering the game within 4-6 years.

We see however Russians also pursuing piecemeal approach to replenishment, wanting to save their money above all.

At the start, I gave Russia 18 months of high intensity warfare. They however abandoned the high intensity approach, and their armour losses slowed down by few times, and their ammo expenditure did accordingly.

I think they at least bought themselves another year, maybe more before they start eating grass.

Who knows, maybe they will pull out anothe rabbit out of the hat, and manage delay that again.

And even if they will hit the bottom, it does not mean an end. Look at DPR/LPR. Russians certainly know they can at least go as far as what they did with them.

Putin will be assasinated, and the pro-war faction will then complete the transformation to a military regime, and WW2 like economic curbs.

I however give that a half way situation is not impossible, given Russian great talent at combining the impossible.

1. They may squeeze some extra money without complete transition to command economy
2. Pro-war faction may find a way to seize power without completely axing Putin
3. They can find ways to prolong the war by switching to even more slower, and cheaper tactics
4. A social collapse will happen, but Putin survives it without losing power to the pro-war faction

It could play out anyway. We don't know yet. The economics of this war has also cost lots of money on the European & North American side.

But one thing is NATO has managed to harm the Russian Federation indirectly by these weapons supplies without taking a single casualty on their side.

If anything this war so far seems to be going in favor of NATO thanks to a power hungry person who wanted to size Ukraine.

 

[ThunderCat]

To all those keyboard warriors who think Ukraine will win keep dreaming. It will be a stalemate with Russia occupying vast area of land. The only looser are Ukrainian.

Europe and NATO is getting demilitarized by supplying there weapons to Ukraine. Remember that it takes much more $$ to manufacture a weapon in NATO countries than in Russia or China.

True it could be a stalemate; however in terms of human toll, NATO already won.

 

[Catalystic]

War has too many loss of lives

This won’t end well for eu/nato when the big toys come out and finally used. Not sure about Russia but entire eu continent wiped off is a potential possibility

Some evils of the world like wef would actually love that, their depopulation agenda fits the situation as more and more people get killed….

Not sure but i also heard from my teacher that putin has cancer…no proof but i heard. Not sure if its true or just rumour

 

[Azadkashmir]

europe needs the gas from russia badly and its cheaper than usa who is making good profit.
plus nato countries are given whole lot of military gear away running low on supplies.
it could go nuclear that will end alot of things.

 

[Ich]

europe needs the gas from russia badly and its cheaper than usa who is making good profit.
plus nato countries are given whole lot of military gear away running low on supplies.
it could go nuclear that will end alot of things.

Yes, going nuclear will be fine for me. It will delete most of US and also nearly all of the arsholes here in EU.

 

[Azadkashmir]

Yes, going nuclear will be fine for me. It will delete most of US and also nearly all of the arsholes here in EU.

problem is it bring disaster for everybody, collapse of food, money, trade etc.

 

[Ich]

problem is it bring disaster for everybody, collapse of food, money, trade etc.

Yes, it brings death to billions and billions, mostly arsholes. So its not a bad thing.

 

[Azadkashmir]

Yes, it brings death to billions and billions, mostly arsholes. So its not a bad thing.

problem the evil people are the rich elites who will have underground bases or islands far away to be safe with full food n water stock. the poor and the rest will pay the price.

 

[Ich]

the poor and the rest will pay the price.

So the "poor and the rest" should think about it...

 

[ThunderCat]

War has too many loss of lives

This won’t end well for eu/nato when the big toys come out and finally used. Not sure about Russia but entire eu continent wiped off is a potential possibility

Some evils of the world like wef would actually love that, their depopulation agenda fits the situation as more and more people get killed….

Not sure but i also heard from my teacher that putin has cancer…no proof but i heard. Not sure if its true or just rumour

NATO has more than enough nukes to return the favor. A nuclear war means everyone dies.

europe needs the gas from russia badly and its cheaper than usa who is making good profit.
plus nato countries are given whole lot of military gear away running low on supplies.
it could go nuclear that will end alot of things.

Everyone dies in a nuclear war. NATO can easily engage in a nuclear war. NATO troops are still ready for war. They have no casualties on their side as of yet.

 

[jhungary]

I said that Many, MANY time, this war can only end with Ukraine being accepted into NATO membership. That's the ultimate thing that will end this war, anything less than that Ukraine will not accept, because you are simply telling Ukraine Russia will be back 3 years from now, or 6 years from now, no matter how many time they beat them back. Russia can keep Crimea, even Donbas if NATO membership for Ukraine is on the table,

On the other hand, Russian troop in Ukraine right now is a spent force, that is the same as US force in Vietnam during 72' The only different is US withdraw support to Vietnam in 71' and Russia literally spend everything on Ukraine already, anything that come now is going to be sub-par and undermanned. There are NO WAY Russia can win any offensive war from this point on, the only matter for Russia is to whether they can hold on to their gain since Feb 24, which unless Ukraine become stupid with the latest Western Equipment, I would say not likely that Russia can hold on to their gain.

The current situation in Ukraine can only be fixed by Russia is to completely withdraw their force into their original point (Crimea and Donbass), re-consolidate, re-train and re-equip their force completely, shed away the dependence of Wagner and Mobilised Soldier and rebuild a professional force again, otherwise what they are going to do is to just feed people and resource into a grinding war, while they have a lot of the first one, they don't have a lot of the second one.

That said, even if Russia completely routed from Ukraine, this "war" is not going to end, Russia will be back 3 years from now after rebuilding their army, most likely with Chinese help and modelled after the Chinese, and then if that was beaten back, they will come again, and again, because that is what Russia want, and only a meaningful defensive pact for Ukraine can stop that from happening.

 

[ziaulislam]

Russia population is dropping
Social collapse due to drinking and low birth rate has already been going on before war.

Replacement level of 2.1 is minimum a country needs ..Russia and Europe well below it..the one that are surviving are simply due to immigrations

 

[BHAN85]

When ended Libya war? Never.

Failed states is the new paradigm of domination.

We are used to one state in one country, I think it's something of the past.

The future of domination is two states by country, in endless war, like Libya, the cheapest way of domination. Like Pepsi and Cocacola, but in a hard way.

The question is when Ukraine mayhem will spread to whole West Europe.

Modern technology has made possible domination in the middle of chaos: electronic espionage and cheap drones selective killings. Decades ago was needed order to get resources from a country and do commerce, that is not needed anymore, in fact it's the opposite: the less order the better for the empire (specially if the empire is separated by a ocean), less internal resources consumption, cheapest domination is hell over Earth.