What the Hell Has Happened To The Israeli Army?

[Awesome]

The original strategic intent was to create a buffer zone all the way to the Litani. They've done that. Not pretty. Not good. But it's done.

What they should have done was to race to the Litani, block the Hezbollah's LOCs with force and then reduce them at pace.

Instead, they tried cutting the LOCs through airpower when they have insufficent loads to do so; added on top of their need to reduce known Hezbollah's positions. The IsAF was running out of bombs.

When the army started their push, the Hezbollah was waiting for them and the stupidity of announcing your OPOBJ allowed the Hezbollah to setup ambush points and fortify their positions and their LOCs. That allowed them to withdraw in order. The Hezbollah won the recee battle. But they lost the main force battle mainly because they used up their main forces to win the recee battle.

The job was ugly. It was sloppy. But the job was done.

IMO the buffer zone achieved (which is not all the way across the Litani as I understand by the news reports, it just touches the Litani from one or two points as a token victory in meeting the objective), is less of a victory than the destruction of Lebanon.

The UN force really won't eliminate Hezbollah's presence from Lebanon. They'd just not be attacking Israel. Instead they'd be fighting for more power. They are heros. The youth which lost their families and homes would see them as the only people fighting FOR THEM, while the Lebanese politicians were crying in front of the international arena.

Israel wins but not over Hezbollah, but the Lebanese people (the very people it gave some BS comments in the beginning that its doing this for them). Hezbollah on the other hand wins on both counts. The Lebanese lose all the way, with Hezbollah now on the rise, and a country in ruins it'd be decades before the return of normalcy.

Even by getting back into the buffer zone, Hezbollah has to be really stupid to launch an attack to regain the Sheba Farmlands for several years.

You know what I think OoE, as Wadawada hinted... This had no OpObj. There was a political objective, to intensify a fight enough to drag Syria in and hence Iran.

Once the fightings start, that'd be enough of an excuse to bomb the crap out of Iran. Baiting. They did not bite. Even the Zelzal was kept at bay.

That didn't work, Lebanon was not their objective, hence the ceasefire.

 

[sparten]

Which was the distruction of the Hizb. And they are still around. How did they achieve their OPOBJ?

 

[Awesome]

I think the OoE is referring to the token OpObj of tagging the Litani river.

 

[parihaka]

Israel wins but not over Hezbollah, but the Lebanese people (the very people it gave some BS comments in the beginning that its doing this for them). Hezbollah on the other hand wins on both counts. The Lebanese lose all the way, with Hezbollah now on the rise, and a country in ruins it'd be decades before the return of normalcy.

Even by getting back into the buffer zone, Hezbollah has to be really stupid to launch an attack to regain the Sheba Farmlands for several years.

You know what I think OoE, as Wadawada hinted... This had no OpObj. There was a political objective, to intensify a fight enough to drag Syria in and hence Iran.

Once the fightings start, that'd be enough of an excuse to bomb the crap out of Iran. Baiting. They did not bite. Even the Zelzal was kept at bay.

That didn't work, Lebanon was not their objective, hence the ceasefire.

Rafic Hariri's position is strengthened, and he is adamantly anti Syria.
The south of Lebanon is pro Hizbullah but they were anyway.
Hizbullah is prevented from attacking israel via Lebanon for the forseable future.
It is now plain to the world, even to you guys, that Hizbullah is an Iranian trained and equiped army, not a Lebanese 'resistance' force.
As far as I can see the only concessions the Israelis have made is to negotiate for their prisoners, but this is humiliating for the new Govt. and they may fall as a consequence, allowing Netanyahu back in, a true hardliner.
The only true winners of course are the Iranians, who are laughing all the way to the bank.

 

[Awesome]

Hezbollah's attacks weren't a major threat for Israel anyway.

At max they can inflict 20 casualties on the Israelis and suffer many more. I doubt that would be alarming enough for Israel to wage a war. They could've equally well just invested in strengthening defence.

Iranians would only breathe a sigh of relief if the Buffer Zone force is not a Nato force (seems like its not going to be).

Any idea which country's committing troops?

 

[sigatoka]

It is now plain to the world, even to you guys, that Hizbullah is an Iranian trained and equiped army, not a Lebanese 'resistance' force.

Then it is equally plain that Israel is U.S. equiped army? I dont know what point you are trying to drive.

 

[sigatoka]

Analysis contradictory. Unacceptable.

Re-read. Re-think. Re-postulate.

I dont see whats contradictory, what point exactly do you think is contradictory?

 

[Awesome]

Then it is equally plain that Israel is U.S. equiped army? I dont know what point you are trying to drive.

He's under the impression that Hisbullah is not backed as a resistence by the Lebanese people. I think the recent unity showed by Lebanon proves him wrong. If they weren't Lebanon would've been divided in this conflict.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

You know what I think OoE, as Wadawada hinted... This had no OpObj. There was a political objective, to intensify a fight enough to drag Syria in and hence Iran.

ALL military operations have an OPOBJ. Otherwise, they would not be operations. At the base of it are two simple axioms. Find the enemy. Kill the enemy. In this case, the enemy left.

As for widening the war, the Israelis could have done that the day their warship got hit. Hit the Bekka Valley with everything they've got.

Which was the distruction of the Hizb. And they are still around. How did they achieve their OPOBJ?

They're no longer around in the buffer zone.

 

[sparten]

Yesterday they launched 250 rockets. From areas that were supposed to be clear.
Hizb is still around.

 

[Neo]

Yesterday they launched 250 rockets. From areas that were supposed to be clear.
Hizb is still around.

This means a potential future war!
Basically nothing has changed except for Lebanon which's been pushed back into the first century.

 

[sparten]

Rafic Hariri's position is strengthened, and he is adamantly anti Syria.
The south of Lebanon is pro Hizbullah but they were anyway.
Hizbullah is prevented from attacking israel via Lebanon for the forseable future.
It is now plain to the world, even to you guys, that Hizbullah is an Iranian trained and equiped army, not a Lebanese 'resistance' force.
As far as I can see the only concessions the Israelis have made is to negotiate for their prisoners, but this is humiliating for the new Govt. and they may fall as a consequence, allowing Netanyahu back in, a true hardliner.
The only true winners of course are the Iranians, who are laughing all the way to the bank.

1) Rafiq harari is dead
2) Hizb can still attack Israel, as they did yesterday
3) The Lebanese ambassador was here on TV yesterday. And he specifically called the Hizb the "resisitance" There President, who is a maronite Christian, called nasraullah his brother. If what you saisd was true in July, its not true anymore.
4) Hizbs reputation has grown. After all they were quite literally the ones in the trenches, and actually managed to hit back and kill the a few, unlike the Lebanese state, which was begging the Israelis not to hit them.

 

[Awesome]

Exactly the official minister sought to cry his way towards sympathy and all he got was thunderous applause from the rest of the Muslim world.

But no one went ahead and said ok we'll come to your aid.

Hezbollah stood their ground, big difference. I personally if were a voter, wouldn't still vote for them. But somehow I think the Lebanese people would. Heck I think even the Lebanese government's thinking Hizbollah's better for the job.

 

[wadawada]

Exactly the official minister sought to cry his way towards sympathy and all he got was thunderous applause from the rest of the Muslim world.

prime minister have "cracked". in that period, there were absolutly no good solution, and all leabanese were afraid of a civil war.

The Applause(tm): the arab's "leaders" speciality.

But no one went ahead and said ok we'll come to your aid.

who could ?

Hezbollah stood their ground, big difference. I personally if were a voter, wouldn't still vote for them. But somehow I think the Lebanese people would. Heck I think even the Lebanese government's thinking Hizbollah's better for the job.

voting for hezbollah or for arabs tyrants ?


man, lebanon is a complex puzzle, where the political equilibrum is far from beign "logical" from a "mass-medias-analyst" POV.

for example, the President is christian pro-syrian (the pro-syrian christian faction). the prime minister is sunni ANTI-syrian ! (the sunni anti-syrian faction). the president of parlianment is shiite secular (amal movmenet) pro-resistance, thus not necessary pro or anti but it dependans on the actuale resitance force ! now amal is pro hezbollah, as long as hezbollah is resitance. there was a time where hezbollah was anti-lebanese pro-syrian and Amal pro-lebanse anti-syrian !!!

the critical voices come from the sunni druzes pro-hezbollah BUT anti-syrian, and from chrisitian anti-everyone (the chritian anti-all faction, open, conditionally to usa, and by extension, for some time during teh civil war, to israel). many old pro-usa are now pragmatically pro-syrian while seeking a total sovreignty of lebanon from everything...

etc...etc...

lebanon was really a real tragedy (the civil war), and lebases have learnt something : never trust an arab politician AND an israeli politician. at any price and whatever the promise is. ALL lebanese factions (that are not necessary relgious as you have seen) are absolutly mefiant from the two devestating forces : arabs' neighbours and israel/usa. even hezbollah is keeping only pragmatic relation with syria because of iran, palestinians (in syria) and the need to have soem near support.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

Yesterday they launched 250 rockets. From areas that were supposed to be clear.
Hizb is still around.

Unless you follow the Mongol example of nothing alive comes in or out of the AO, you will ALWAYS have leakage. That is just military reality. The military reality also is that Hezbollah has lost South Lebanon as a base of operations.