What is the biggest problem facing China according to you people?

[GS Zhou]

hat's why you should pay attention to arithmetic classes in school. Tell me Einstein- you know that in 2005 your economy had a GDP of 2.25 Trillion (slightly below India's GDP today). Now tell me did you have to grow at a 14.5% CAGR to reach where you are today? Revisit your calculations. Your growth rate has not touched 14% for even one year if I'm not wrong.

China's 2005 GDP was 2.27 trillion dollar; 2014 GDP was 5.27 trillion dollar. Both are given in constant 2005 dollar. The growth rate during the period was 9.8%.

Your previous statement is to achieve China's current economic size in 12 years, which refers to India's GDP in 12 years will be equivalent to the size of China's GDP today in constant terms. So a quick calculation again for your information: (1+14.5%)^12=5

 

[Guynextdoor2]

China's 2005 GDP was 2.27 trillion dollar; 2014 GDP was 5.27 trillion dollar. Both are given in constant 2005 dollar. The growth rate during the period was 9.8%.

Your previous statement is to achieve China's current economic size in 12 years, which refers to India's GDP in 12 years will be equivalent to the size of China's GDP today in constant terms. So a quick calculation again for your information: (1+14.5%)^12=5

Then we're not discussing Apples and Oranges. I don't think we can discuss this. We (india) also have to adjust the base. So wait for the numbers.

Look, if the starting point is 2.5 for both, then what you can do in 9 years can be done in approximately 12 years adjusting for any slowdown in the intervening years. Remember that CHina's growth rate this decade has not been as consistently above 9% as it was in the 1990s. The 2007 14% rate I think is some sort of a correction done- it's too abnormal to be natural growth without fuelling enormous inflation. So it's probably mostly 9% to 10% on the upside with as low as 7% on the downside. As long as India targets that range, in terms of matching the size of China's economy, it'll be there about 12 odd years. Same thing happened with the 2.5 T mark.

China's 2005 GDP was 2.27 trillion dollar; 2014 GDP was 5.27 trillion dollar. Both are given in constant 2005 dollar. The growth rate during the period was 9.8%.

Your previous statement is to achieve China's current economic size in 12 years, which refers to India's GDP in 12 years will be equivalent to the size of China's GDP today in constant terms. So a quick calculation again for your information: (1+14.5%)^12=5

I'm officially mindf*cked with your GDP numbers. How can this set of numbers give a 14% CAGR? After 2011 there has been a slowdown, not a pick up. This is giving me a headache now.

 

[GS Zhou]

Fine. Let the future to judge. None of us are predictors.

I think realistically a doubling of the GDP every 8 odd years

in terms of matching the size of China's economy, it'll be there about 12 odd years

the above two sentences are both mentioned by you.
India's GDP today is about 20% of China. So if India wants to match with China's GDP today, it means India GDP needs to grow from 1 to 5.
- doubling the GDP every 8 years means your GDP grows from 1 to 2 in 8 years, an implied CAGR about 9.1%;
- put the 9.1% growth for the rest four years, then the GDP grows to 2.8, still a huge gap to 5.

Could you plz. at least show some consistency on your posts? the time difference for your two mentioned posts are just few seconds!

 

[Guynextdoor2]

Fine. Let the future to judge. None of us are predictors.




the above two sentences are both mentioned by you.
India's GDP today is about 20% of China. So if India wants to match with China's GDP today, it means India GDP needs to grow from 1 to 5.
- doubling the GDP every 8 years means your GDP grows from 1 to 2 in 8 years, an implied CAGR about 9.1%;
- put the 9.1% growth for the rest four years, then the GDP grows to 2.8, still a huge gap to 5.

Could you plz. at least show some consistency on your posts? the time difference for your two mentioned posts are just few seconds!

Could you please show some consistency in your numbers? As you can refer to the table I showed how can you have a CAGR of 14% with a set of numbers such as that? It can happen only if you are looking at 2005 in one base and 2015 in another.

 

[GS Zhou]

I'm officially mindf*cked with your GDP numbers. How can this set of numbers give a 14% CAGR?

It is you that mentions to match China's GDP today in 12 years. I.e. to grow the GDP from 1 to 5 year in 12 years, an implied growth is 14.5% every year!! I never said anything that China achieved such huge growth in long consecutive years.

The growth 14% has nothing to do with China. It is a simple calculation result judged from your 12 year catching up plan!

 

[Guynextdoor2]

It is you that mentions to match China's GDP today in 12 years. I.e. to grow the GDP from 1 to 5 year in 12 years, an implied growth is 14.5% every year!! I never said anything that China achieved such huge growth in long consecutive years.

The growth 14% has nothing to do with China. It is a simple calculation result judged from your 12 year catching up plan!

I'ma sking you a simple question. How do you get a 14% CAGR when your individual years and quarters you have touched a 14% only once/ twice. I'm not commenting on your CAGR formula. I'm asking you, how can you have a 14% CAGR when throughout the trend years most of the years and even in quarters you have clocked below that. There is something not right about the Chinese GDP data. (in fact you'd be in real trouble if you touched 14% consistently since it'll fuel extreme inflation).

It is you that mentions to match China's GDP today in 12 years. I.e. to grow the GDP from 1 to 5 year in 12 years, an implied growth is 14.5% every year!! I never said anything that China achieved such huge growth in long consecutive years.

The growth 14% has nothing to do with China. It is a simple calculation result judged from your 12 year catching up plan!

Look, to clarify- if you need to have overall 14% growth either:
- you have consistently gone above 14%
-you have clocked well below 14% in some years, and cloked well above 14% to compensate.

WHen most years you've missed both, then CAGR of 14% is impossible. I'm not saying that your CAGR formula is wrong, but that something doesn't make sense.

 

[GS Zhou]

I'ma sking you a simple question. How do you get a 14% CAGR when your individual years and quarters you have touched a 14% only once/ twice. I'm not commenting on your CAGR formula. I'm asking you, how can you have a 14% CAGR when throughout the trend years most of the years and even in quarters you have clocked below that. There is something not right about the Chinese GDP data. (in fact you'd be in real trouble if you touched 14% consistently since it'll fuel extreme inflation).



Look, to clarify- if you need to have overall 14% growth either:
- you have consistently gone above 14%
-you have clocked well below 14% in some years, and cloked well above 14% to compensate.

WHen most years you've missed both, then CAGR of 14% is impossible. I'm not saying that your CAGR formula is wrong, but that something doesn't make sense.

A boring back and forth procedure.

1. I NEVER said anything about China achieved 14% growth, if you read my posts more carefully.

2. 14% is the minimum growth requirement to realize your 12-year-catch up plan. But now you challenged this figure, which means you also realized the 12-year-catch up plan is a joke.

lets stop here. It is a boring back and forth procedure. We both come here fun and knowledge, not for useless debates.

 

[CHN Bamboo]

I'ma sking you a simple question. How do you get a 14% CAGR when your individual years and quarters you have touched a 14% only once/ twice. I'm not commenting on your CAGR formula. I'm asking you, how can you have a 14% CAGR when throughout the trend years most of the years and even in quarters you have clocked below that. There is something not right about the Chinese GDP data. (in fact you'd be in real trouble if you touched 14% consistently since it'll fuel extreme inflation).



Look, to clarify- if you need to have overall 14% growth either:
- you have consistently gone above 14%
-you have clocked well below 14% in some years, and cloked well above 14% to compensate.

WHen most years you've missed both, then CAGR of 14% is impossible. I'm not saying that your CAGR formula is wrong, but that something doesn't make sense.

China Yuan revalue,and GDP usually grow 9~10%

 

[Guynextdoor2]

A boring back and forth procedure.

1. I NEVER said anything about China achieved 14% growth, if you read my posts more carefully.

2. 14% is the minimum growth requirement to realize your 12-year-catch up plan. But now you challenged this figure, which means you also realized the 12-year-catch up plan is a joke.

lets stop here. It is a boring back and forth procedure. We both come here fun and knowledge, not for useless debates.

Are you even reading my post? You said that for India to reach current China GDP levels over 10 years between 2005 and 2015 India will have to grow at 14%.
By implication you are saying that china has grown at 14% CAGR

2015 GDP of India = 2005 GDP of China
if India has to match China's GDP today it has to grow at CAGR at 14%

Therefor India has to grow at 14% CAGR in the same time frame. You really are implying that China has also grown at 14% CAGR.

China Yuan revalue,and GDP usually grow 9~10%

Which is my point. 9% to 10% makes sense, 14% doesn't.

 

[GS Zhou]

By implication you are saying that china has grown at 14% CAGR

1. below is my post yesterday evening. It is a pure calculation result from your proposed 12-year-plan. It has NO implication about China ever achieved 14% growth before.

India's current GDP size is about 20% of China; to achieve the size of China today in 12 years means you need to grow at 14.5% CAGR at least! 14.5% GDP growth CAGR for TWELVE years??

2. During the discussion, I mentioned China's GDP growth twice:
- the first time mentioning
In the past 20 years, there were only 8 years that China could get a higher than 10% GDP growth (real term):
- The highest is 14.2% growth in 2007,
- No.2 highest is 12.7% in 2006,
- No.3 highest is 11.3% in 2005

- the 2nd time mentioning
China's 2005 GDP was 2.27 trillion dollar; 2014 GDP was 5.27 trillion dollar. Both are given in constant 2005 dollar. The growth rate during the period was 9.8%.

The two posts have NOTHING to do with a constant 14% growth by China.

Clear to you now?

Do you still believe in your 12-year-catch up plan now?

 

[Guynextdoor2]

1. below is my post yesterday evening. It is a pure calculation result from your proposed 12-year-plan. It has NO implication about China ever achieved 14% growth before.

India's current GDP size is about 20% of China; to achieve the size of China today in 12 years means you need to grow at 14.5% CAGR at least! 14.5% GDP growth CAGR for TWELVE years??

2. During the discussion, I mentioned China's GDP growth twice:
- the first time mentioning
In the past 20 years, there were only 8 years that China could get a higher than 10% GDP growth (real term):
- The highest is 14.2% growth in 2007,
- No.2 highest is 12.7% in 2006,
- No.3 highest is 11.3% in 2005

- the 2nd time mentioning
China's 2005 GDP was 2.27 trillion dollar; 2014 GDP was 5.27 trillion dollar. Both are given in constant 2005 dollar. The growth rate during the period was 9.8%.

The two posts have NOTHING to do with a constant 14% growth by China.

Clear to you now?

Do you still believe in your 12-year-catch up plan now?

Oh man it's much simpler than that. What was our argument?

I said
- India lags behind China by 10 years.
-According to trend what China achieved in 2005 India achieved in 2015 (2.5 T GDP)
- And therefore what China has today, India will achieve in next 12 years

You said if India has to achieve in next 12 years CHina's current GDP, India will need to grow by 14%
-Therefore by default you're saying China grew by 14% in last 10 years

Comprende?

 

[CHN Bamboo]

Oh man it's much simpler than that. What was our argument?

I said
- India lags behind China by 10 years.
-According to trend what China achieved in 2005 India achieved in 2015 (2.5 T GDP)
- And therefore what China has today, India will achieve in next 12 years

You said if India has to achieve in next 12 years CHina's current GDP, India will need to grow by 14%
-Therefore by default you're saying China grew by 14% in last 10 years

Comprende?

Do u have statistic about India growth rate(12 years)?
I search in Baidu but get nothing...(only have statistic in 2014 and 2015)

 

[Guynextdoor2]

Do u have statistic about India growth rate(12 years)?
I search in Baidu but get nothing...(only statistic in 2014 and 2015)

Range between 7% to 9 % on average. I think for 3 years it was above 9%, many others 8 to 9 and more recently in the 7%+ range.

 

[CHN Bamboo]

Range between 7% to 9 % on average. I think for 3 years it was above 9%, many others 8 to 9 and more recently in the 7%+ range.

............Get it from blog.

As if after 1990,China has higher GDP per capita than India.
But what's strange is that the social productive forces of India r low.
According to what Indian said in PDF,the goods price in India were not as low as in China(2003)

 

[GS Zhou]

India lags behind China by 10 years.
-According to trend what China achieved in 2005 India achieved in 2015 (2.5 T GDP)

- India's 2014 GDP is 1.60 trillion USD (in constant 2005 USD)
- China achieved this figure between 2001 and 2002: 1.54 trillion in 2001, 1.68 trillion in 2002 (in constant 2005 USD)
So the statement: India lags behind China by 10 years, is WRONG

- India's 2014 GDP is 1.6 trillion in constant 2005 USD, or 2.07 trillion in current USD.
So the statement: 2.5T GDP of India, is WRONG again.

See, your both foundation stones are fake! Understand?

BTW, all data mentioned above comes from World Bank. Maybe you could write them an email to ask them to correct the data.